Official UFN 69 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[efalk1322]

Taylor Lapilus vs. Ulka Sasaki

VS.

Taylor Lapilus

Strengths:

Solid TDD
Great use of knees
Crafy chokes

Weaknesses:

Still young (green)
Untested against high level grapplers


Keys to victory: Lapilus needs to keep this on the feet. Use his slight reach advantage and mix in knees to his combinatons to make Sasaki think twice before shooting. Sasaki struggles with busy strikers and if Lapilus can find his range and land some hard leg kicks he should win this. If put against the cage Lapilus needs to stay busy in the clinch like he usually does. Throw knees and short elbows to disrupt Saski's attempts to drag this to the floor.




Ulka Sasaki

Strengths:

Incredibly creative grappling and submissions
More experience
Good chin


Weaknesses:

Poor Striking offence and defence
Fairly one dimensional

Keys to victory: Sasaki needs to open up as he usually does and take the center of the Octagon. From there he needs to stick to Lapilus like glue and not give him the space he needs to throw combinations and find his rhythm. Lapilus is a good striker that has shown solid TDD but hasn't faced a grappler on the same level as Sasaki, he did however struggle against the grappling of flyweight prospect Magomed Bibulatov. Sasaki has strong bodylock takedowns and has been known to take the back whilst standing on a new occassions, the Delorme fight for instance. If Sasaki can get it to the floor he has a great chance of finishing the fight.


Prediction: Lapilus keep a busy output, landing clean in the exchanges and scoring good shots when Sasaki pins him against the cage.

Lapilus via Decision.
​

good shit man, keep up the good work. appreciate the BD's as alejandro was saying

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I think makwan is a pure grappler if I've ever seen one. He has no 'in between' skills as far as MMA goes. By in between, I mean the intracacies of kneeing or punching off the break or doesn't set up his TDs with strikes. Guys with better footwork would easily beat him. He's a total rookie by UFC standards but despite all of this, it might actually be enough to beat Masio Fullen who probably can't hang with him on the floor. I don't feel like finland's style is tailored in a way for him to win by decision. Of course he can win one but it won't be by his own design.

I was actually pretty impressed in Fullen's fight with that 2-2 guy. He was rocked several times but still came back from adversity. I like that quality in a fighter. He's ready and willing to trade in the pocket and if you try to slip out, he'll throw a kick as his TKD background allows him that extension. That's good IQ to me. Of course, Fullen often gets himself into trouble that way in the pocket as he gets pieced up for having his hands too low. But he actually got more aggressive when he was getting rocked in that fight.

I think the real odds should be -200 for Makwan as think he can submit as well as maybe winning a dubious decision where both guys stalemate with Makwan winning positions or Masio keeps it on the feet and executes his TDD well. I've seen in a fight where Makwan flops for leglocks and gassing because he couldn't get the TD. Pretty sad to watch. But I've also seen Masio once he gets taken down and like an elderly person with life alert, they can't get up.

Sloppy fight is my prediction. Your money is not safe here in either guy

 

[Sham5916910]

Siver is one of the few fighters whos come off TRT and not looked much if any worse. He beat the young buzzsaw Rosa pretty comfortably and he took more punishment than most against Conor. He has shown much improvement in recent years with his offensive and defensive wrestling and his grappling. My slight concern is when Kawajiri gets him down he keeps him down but im optimistic a lot of Kawajiri's shots will be stuffed and Siver will outwork him on the feet. I really feel the over has value and Siver SU hedged with Kawajiri by decision should give you a pretty safe bet. All Kawajiri wanted to do was wrestlefuck Soriano and Guida and hes had a years layoff and is coming back from a nasty injury plus he has a long flight. I think in a close fight in Germany Siver gets the nod too

 

[Sham5916910]

Your not the only one, me and gf down like 2.5k+ and that was last event that aldo play is looking so tempting to claw it back but one would have to go big on it too:icon_surp



yup had siver + joanna parlay plays in my mind its the only way to get any kind of returns at least, id imagine both becoming even less unplayable as fight night approaches. Won't tempt fate however I need to rebuild some live bet wins and recoup big time!

You think we will have lb from first fight? Just reviewing Patrick you may be right perfect lb fight. If Patricks first takedown effort is stuffed time to hit the Russian!

 

[Jae Gibbz]

FWIW, Masio Fullen has been training with Alliance on the regular.

 

[CR0W]

good shit man, keep up the good work. appreciate the BD's as alejandro was saying

Thanks man, appreciate it as always!

 

[Nelson McGunnar]

this is the worst ufc card in history.

 

[jerryisgood]

Taylor Lapilus vs. Ulka Sasaki

VS.

Taylor Lapilus

Strengths:

Solid TDD
Great use of knees
Crafy chokes

Weaknesses:

Still young (green)
Untested against high level grapplers


Keys to victory: Lapilus needs to keep this on the feet. Use his slight reach advantage and mix in knees to his combinatons to make Sasaki think twice before shooting. Sasaki struggles with busy strikers and if Lapilus can find his range and land some hard leg kicks he should win this. If put against the cage Lapilus needs to stay busy in the clinch like he usually does. Throw knees and short elbows to disrupt Saski's attempts to drag this to the floor.




Ulka Sasaki

Strengths:

Incredibly creative grappling and submissions
More experience
Good chin


Weaknesses:

Poor Striking offence and defence
Fairly one dimensional

Keys to victory: Sasaki needs to open up as he usually does and take the center of the Octagon. From there he needs to stick to Lapilus like glue and not give him the space he needs to throw combinations and find his rhythm. Lapilus is a good striker that has shown solid TDD but hasn't faced a grappler on the same level as Sasaki, he did however struggle against the grappling of flyweight prospect Magomed Bibulatov. Sasaki has strong bodylock takedowns and has been known to take the back whilst standing on a new occassions, the Delorme fight for instance. If Sasaki can get it to the floor he has a great chance of finishing the fight.


Prediction: Lapilus keep a busy output, landing clean in the exchanges and scoring good shots when Sasaki pins him against the cage.

Lapilus via Decision.
​

I agree with everything except the winner. I think Sasaki either wins a decision on effective grappling or finds the submission.

 

[iGnP]

wow fml i just found out that i wont be able to live bet the NBA game tonight bc my site is gonna be 'under construction'. sigh.

 

[Slohog]

As the super-serious bettor I am I threw about 6u the polish chick ITD, by KO and fight to end ITD before I started watching tape.

I actually think that Esparza did well for the first 2-3 min or so before she ate a elbow or something and just ran around wobbly and rocked for 5 min before she got knocked out.

You guys think Joanna is that great or did she look better due to Esparza being rocked for a long time?

 

[iGnP]

As the super-serious bettor I am I threw about 6u the polish chick ITD, by KO and fight to end ITD before I started watching tape.

I actually think that Esparza did well for the first 2-3 min or so before she ate a elbow or something and just ran around wobbly and rocked for 5 min before she got knocked out.

You guys think Joanna is that great or did she look better due to Esparza being rocked for a long time?

Joanna is good but this line is WAY too high imo

 

[Sham5916910]

Quick glance at Siver's record and hes only lost to top quality steikers in the past six years.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

this is the worst ufc card in history.

It's a pretty bad card but not TOO bad considering you get a title fight on Fight Pass. I don't like the fact that there's so many debuts and sophomore fighters but for a gambler, it could mean everything if you're familiar with them and can pick out the dogs.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We'll get a 2 break after Machida vs Romero next week.. or one could use that break to study more lol. We'll return in July with the 5 card gauntlet starting with Aldo/Conor. God bless the capper who's either already watched tape or took the time to watch it. Go schedule an appointment with your optician guys, if they ask why, tell them your eyes are suffering from Just Bleed.

Spoiler

 

[EzFlyer]

Love leites line as the dog vs bisping

 

[piglord]

i favor siver slightly but IMO it's way too risky to bet either way. there are much better fights on the card to wager on.

anyone got some intel on omer/allen?

i will be playing backstrom, joanna and sobotta so far

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Love leites line as the dog vs bisping

Me too I love this line too bad it's too far away. I think Leites is going to rize and turn Bisping into an afterthought. This is his last chance to become relevant @ 36 years. Also, Bisping's due for another loss as his record for the past 3 years is L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-???(L)

Spoiler

Leites now +130, adding

wow good shit. You have patience that I don't have to wait that long, I applaud you sir lol.

As the super-serious bettor I am I threw about 6u the polish chick ITD, by KO and fight to end ITD before I started watching tape.

I actually think that Esparza did well for the first 2-3 min or so before she ate a elbow or something and just ran around wobbly and rocked for 5 min before she got knocked out.

You guys think Joanna is that great or did she look better due to Esparza being rocked for a long time?

I think you're going to win. 5 rounds getting brutalized by Joanna, Penne might as well bring her own pasta to the ring after her face gets turned into ground beef and spaghetti sauce.

 

[EzFlyer]

Leites now +130, adding

 

[iGnP]

Love leites line as the dog vs bisping

Hasn't leites shown some cardio issues in the past? ,

 

[EzFlyer]

Hasn't leites shown some cardio issues in the past? ,

That's bisping's only way to win... Survive, then outpoint him late.. And I think biapings best days are behind him

 

[mkess101]

MLB

Spoiler

Adding Jays small as they are up to +140. Worth a little stab imo.