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Official UFN 69 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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Oblivian

Oblivian

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Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Playing small as this is a tough event to bet and I won't be watching live.

Singles
Kawijiri: $5 to win $7
Hallman: $5 to win $4
Taisumov: $5 to win $3.03
Lahat: $3.75 to win $6.36
Kennedy: $1.25 to win $2.13
Hein: $3.75 to win $2.14
Penne: $1.25 to win $6

Risk of $25

Parlays
Straus + Amirkhani/Fullen ITD: $3.75 to win $3.60
Field over Rory or Rose (US Open) + Penne/Jed ITD: $3.75 to win $2.81
Sasaki + Lashley + Chandler: $3.75 to win $3.21
Field over Rose/Stenson/Mickelson (US Open) + Omer: $3.75 to win $2.54
Field over Spieth/Rory/Rose (US Open) + Kimbo: $3.75 to win $2.96
Four or more under par (US Open) + Ashkam/Dos Santos ITD: $2.50 to win $3.69
Field over Stenson/D Johnson (US Open) + Pitbull: $2.50 to win $2
Shamrock/Kimbo under 1.5 + Straus + Penne/Jed ITD: $1.25 to win $1.81

Risk of $25

TOTAL RISK OF $50

TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $94.65 Running Loss: $0.35 Approximate ROI for year -0.02%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2555.88 Total Profit = $2526.88 (Approximate ROI: 13.0943%)
 
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Is the Kawajiri decision line out? I like Siver here but as a hedge Kawajiri by decision.
 
Siver is getting on for -200 which is a bit steep for my liking. If you like Siver may as well wait for the decision line. He hasn't stopped anyone with strikes since Paul Kelly six years ago and I imagine a lot of this fight will be spent with Siver against the fence stuffing Kawajiri's takedowns.
 
Opening odds -
964_o.png

Current odds -
964.png
 
From the other thread -

HeyBoone
That fight was 5 years ago and they were both 18/19 at the time so a lot can change. Held would demolish him now though. They both looked pretty promising in that fight but it's obvious Held is the one who really evolved as a fighter whereas Sajewski has remained largely the same fighter as he was back then.

Sajewski didn't really impress me in the other fights I saw between the Held fight and his second most recent fight as much as he did against Held (especially early on). He basically has a decent top game but if the opponent has decent defense he's not going to finish it there. Standing he's pretty decent but not a ton of activity although he did have some really powerful leg kicks in one of his recent fights. His cardio seems to be actually not bad but Hein for a super muscled guy has decent cardio himself.

I really don't see Hein being taken down here the only way he winds up on bottom is if Sajewski can sweep him from the bottom or something.

Only worry with Hein is his inactivity at times and his hands are often low and he's a bit sloppy with loopy punches in the pocket but his chin seems good enough to handle whatever Sajewski will hit him with.

Hein struggled with Vick mostly because of the massive reach advantage (9" height and 9" reach advantage for Vick) but still managed to lay him out a couple times in the first round and had a very competitive third round as well.

I just hope that Hein is smart enough to use his TD's to seal rounds if need be because he should be able to get them easy enough here since he's strong as fuck and has his judo background. I'll take him for a couple units at his current price.

-----------------------

http://www.ufc.ca/fighter/steve-kennedy

What was your job before you started fighting? I am currently a courier driver for an office supply company

Specific accomplishments in amateur competition? Australian champion in freestyle and Greco-Roman (96kg), Pan pacific brown belt no gi champion (85kg). Competed in pro boxing pro Muay Thai, judo and karate.

Ranks in any martial arts styles: Black belt in BJJ, Judo and Shotokan karate

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/6/9/...oraes-mma-news

Who is Steve Kennedy?

The 32-year old Aussie fights out of Kickass MMA in Perth, Australia. He's the only notable talent on their books, with a fairly impressive 22-6 record to his name. The biggest recent name win in his career so far is a 2013 submission over TUF prospect Manuel Rodriguez, but he also has wins over solid regional competition in Callan Potter, Cole Davids, and Sam Brown among others. His only loss since early 2012 came at the hands of former UFC & Strikeforce vet Jesse Taylor. Kennedy is currently on a 7 fight win streak. Outside of MMA, Kennedy is a BJJ black belt and a national freestyle wrestling champion. He's even taken a few pro boxing and Muay Thai Fights.

What you should expect:

As you might expect out of a fighter with Kennedy's experience, he'll be coming to the UFC as a more or less finished product. Like a lot of fighters off the Australian scene, Kennedy seems to have a well rounded style that's not terribly well connected. He boxes pretty decently, with something of a traditional, low left hand boxing stance. Which allows him to throw decent combinations and a pretty quick jab, but leaves him somewhat open to takedowns, because of his straight up and down posture. As would be suggested by his background, he's got a decent top control grappling game, and does a good job striking with ground and pound to set up submission opportunities. He even seems to have some pretty decent takedowns when he can get in on the hips of his opponent. But, as is often the case with fighters who've spent most of their careers jumbling together different training styles a lot of the transition pieces don't seem to be there. He doesn't seem to have a great shot or clinch to takedown game and may have benefited quite a bit from the complete lack of wrestling on the Aussie circuit.

What that means for his debut:

It's tough to say against Sobotta. The Polish fighter's game has really been clicking lately, but that doesn't mean it's not still limited. Sobotta tends to rely on a high output kicking game to keep opponents at a distance and force them to attack him aggressively, thus setting up shot opportunities. Otherwise, he tends to shoot from distance, and while he's good at getting the fight to the ground, he's not exactly an ace wrestler. Neither man is particularly a cut above the athletic norm for the UFC, so this fight is really going to come down to specific matchups. Kennedy has better hands, is probably a bit bigger, and is generally a pretty well rounded fighter. Sobotta is probably the slicker grappler. If the fight goes to the ground, I think Sobotta should take it, but if it stays standing, Kennedy may have an edge.



-------------------------------

HeyBoone
To aid in research...

Antonio Dos Santos

Vs. Galiza https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKLwGy94BQA
Vs. Bertazini https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=624-CNJ7aCk
Vs. Celivaldo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9GJ4_2rbEY
Vs. Sarafian http://www.ufc.tv/video/daniel-saraf...fc-fight-night


Scott Askham

Vs. Nunes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yRs3KslGmA
Vs. Bezerra https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJHcsgzn1FI
Vs. McLeman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5tLyx1Ky_8
Vs. Sutherland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3rgMgjKMQk
Vs. Cedenblad http://www.ufc.tv/video/magnus-cedenblad-vs-scott-askham-ufc-fight-night
 
Mustafaev - http://www.mmarocks.pl/ufc/magomed-m...lepszej-formie

In fact, preparations are well. Along the way there were a few minor injuries, but mastered it. Initially I trained at the club at the Dagestan Fighter Mansur Chakaeva. I would like to thank him and all the guys from the club! Currently, I train under the tutelage of his first coach Akop Topchyana the club Sochi Star. Preparations will conclude in Thailand - in the famous Tiger Muay Thai & MMA Phuket. I would like to thank the owner of the club Berkut Mairbekowi Khasievowi for material aid, as well as all of his club for their support and assistance in the preparations for his debut. Debut in the UFC is a priority for me and the most important moment in your life.

---------------------------------

Anyone like:

Kennedy over Sobotta
Patrick over Taisumov
Lahat over Backstrom
Lapilus over Sasaki

--------------------------------------

EzFlyer
Was that you who prompted the line changes on Siver and Hein

They changed like a minute after you posted
likely VERY low betting totals will move lines like these at the openers, but yea, i did hit both.

sajewski might be legit, though, man. watching his win over marcin held (granted, held is a LOT better now than he was 3-4 years ago when he was like a teenager).. but i think hein should have strength, wrestling, athleticism... and striking edge... but i'm not certain on this one. sajewski seems like he has a good top game, but i don't see how he gets hein down

also remember, in germany.. that helps all 3 of the germans on the main card (sobotta, siver, hein)

i could see siver-kawajiri being a close fight, tho
 
Argh, Shamrock went from to +195 to as high as +225 for a second there. I thought for sure he was going to trend closer to even and already put a unit on him.

I was really confident in Shamrock at first due to having more ways to win, but starting to have doubts. I'm so glad this travesty of a fight is happening!


GoT
Apologies for including speculation in my post in other thread that people may not want to read. I should have realized that but was rather drunk.

It's going to be a long ten months; I don't really watch any shows other than GoT and Vikings.
 
HomunculusXV said:
Argh, Shamrock went from to +195 to as high as +225 for a second there. I thought for sure he was going to trend closer to even and already put a unit on him.

I was really confident in Shamrock at first due to having more ways to win, but starting to have doubts. I'm so glad this travesty of a fight is happening!


GoT
Apologies for including speculation in my post in other thread that people may not want to read. I should have realized that but was rather drunk.

It's going to be a long ten months; I don't really watch any shows other than GoT and Vikings.
Click to expand...

GoT

i actually think you're ok, it was just theories, none is necessarily right or confirmed or anything

theoretical GoT talk, further spoilery, so careful if you don't wanna hear theories:
the jon snow targaryan thing is basically confirmed, littlefinger even talked about it to sansa..

oh and why do you think shamrock is going to get closer to evens? cause he's got muscles in the training pics we've seen? (not being condescending, genuinely asking if that's why you think it'll move) -- i personally hate the fight, don't wanna bet it.. and i bet almost every fight, hehe
 
http://www.ufc.com/news/Newcomer-Allen-in-for-Wilkinson

With British featherweight Mike Wilkinson forced out of his UFC Fight Night bout against Alan Omer due to injury, Wilkinson's countryman Arnold "Almighty" Allen will step up to face Omer in Berlin, Germany on Saturday, June 20.

Suffolk's Allen, 9-1 as a pro, has finished seven of his nine victories and brings a two-fight winning streak into the bout with home country favorite Omer, who will be seeking his first UFC win on Saturday.
 
whys is kimbo 1.38 vs zombie shamrock? it's obvious ken's gonna shoot asap, are people thinking kimbo's kness and tdd are THAT bad?? i do not understand these odds, if they are released on a euro bookie im gonna put a fairly big chunk on kimbo.
 
can shamrock sub kimbo that quickly if he does take him down..? i don't think he can.. maybe O1.5 is better than shamrock ML? idk.
 
Nice breakdown of the upcoming fights, he seems to watch tape so figured some of you might find it useful.

[YT]YmLAx_SccSY[/YT]
 
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