I think people were basing Ogle's performance against Do bronx that he'd be able to get himself out of trouble and land in Makwan's guard and win on GnP.
That flying knee was the last thing everyone thought was gonna happen. I mean, he had 0 TKO's to his name before that.
Having said that, I did watch 1 of Masio's fights on Fight Pass and I'm convinced he has a path to victory here.
I have a similar feel to last card's Rosa vs Rodriguez in this one, where it's the submission grappler vs TKD guy.
Two ways to bet this fight, Makwan by submission or Masio by decision. Makwan's grappling style doesn't really lead him to win by decision because he's so content to work off his back. It's almost like he's not even that great when he's in top position. Of course I would like to preface, I'm no expert on either guy so this is from what I've seen.
Masio has the better combinations on the feet and he's a pressure fighter. He doesn't mind getting hit to get off his strikes. He shouldn't shoot for TDs against Makwan who owns a very dangerous front headlock choke (sounds like Rosa doesn't it?). But instead make Makwan fight his fight, and that's on the feet. He'll want to throw combos and exit and reset and repeat. I notice that Masio already does an excellent job of ending combinations with kicks if the guy backs straight up. He's actually really good with his range.
Eerily similar feeling to that last bout. But they're different fighters and if you have spare time to watch for yourself, make your own judgements. Longer the fight stays on the feet, Masio definitely wins.
I don't know how Makwan's training is going but if I were him, I'd be ready for war. He should definitely stand and strike with Masio who is very hittable and go for a TD only when it presents itself.
Now you consider the odds, -265 is definitely CHALK. Sorry this isn't a clear and concise breakdown, I'm just writing off the top of my head as I go along.
