Official UFC fight night 83 Thread

[Card]

 

[lefontes]

Under 2,5 on Fasholz vs Murphy have great value IMO.

1 unit on this.

 

[EzFlyer]

I like Ashley a lot as an underdog, I think she should be the favorite. For some reason people seem to have gotten the idea that Reneau is a good striker, but she's really not. Neither is AES, but she has a solid clinch striking/wrestling game and should be able to control Reneau there. I think she'll be fine on the ground - Jessica Andrade has a very rudimentary grappling skillset and relies on strengthing everything and crushing for guillotines all the time. Her sloppy defense got her put in a triangle, she got out, and then just threw herself right into another triangle.

i don't really get this -- you're saying AES has a better grappling skillset than andrade? that she's tougher to sub? i don't think that's the case at all

 

[EzFlyer]

Strickland R3 +1050

thought about that one, too. i was a bit perplexed why garcia rd 3 paid so much more, but i kinda agree, too

 

[EzFlyer]

Under 2,5 on Fasholz vs Murphy have great value IMO.

1 unit on this.

what makes you say this? think fasholz gasses w/the short notice (and the fact that she looked like she gassed in prior fights) etc? murphy taps her? or some other lean?

 

[EzFlyer]

i could see cowboy vs cowboy going all 5 rounds. it's +250 on bm. (only +195 on 5d).

gonna take a little shot at this.

 

[Agent Mulder]

i could see cowboy vs cowboy going all 5 rounds. it's +250 on bm. (only +195 on 5d).

gonna take a little shot at this.

Me too. It's only around +175 on EU books so yeah, +250 is a good price for sure. However, it's Olivieras first 5 rounder right? I wonder if his cardio will hold up.

 

[EzFlyer]

Me too. It's only around +175 on EU books so yeah, +250 is a good price for sure. However, it's Olivieras first 5 rounder right? I wonder if his cardio will hold up.

yea. he was slowing down before he ko'd hallmann, i was thinking hallmann had a chance in rd 3 (lol) -- being serious, tho. he was slowing down.

and yet again, short notice. and yea, he was up 2-0 vs burns and got subbed in 3rd etc

just a small bet on the +250

 

[MMAJay]

I think that the fight ends itd more often than not. Brazil cowboy relies very much of his energy burst in the striking exchanges. I don't think he has bad striking, but these energy burst combined with being a little stiff has to take alot of your cardio away. Also it's his first 5 round fight. He also tends to chase the finish alot, and if he fails to finish cowboy inside the first two, I could see late stoppage from cowboy.

If we'll see a brazil cowboy that can pace himself in a 5 rounder, I'll would give him a small chance of winning a dec, but it's very unlikely. If brazil cowboy wins it will be inside the first 2.5 imo.

 

[The MM Analyst]

i don't really get this -- you're saying AES has a better grappling skillset than andrade? that she's tougher to sub? i don't think that's the case at all

Yeah, I think so. Andrade isn't a good grappler. She takes people down, tries to smash to half guard, tries to force the guillotine from there, and that's basically the entirety of her skillset. AES isn't a fantastic grappler or anything, but Reneau wouldn't have gotten that triangle (that particular one, or the one she almost got before it) on anybody that knows what they're doing. She got out of the first triangle and just dove onto her with a hammerfist, with her other arm on the outside of Reneau's leg. There was a point where Reneau was obviously going for the triangle, but Andrade didn't seem to recognize it or care. Look how terrible her defense is.

I think AES has a really good chance to win as long as she doesn't literally put herself in a submission and fail to recognize she's going to get subbed until it's too late.

 

[EzFlyer]

Yeah, I think so. Andrade isn't a good grappler. She takes people down, tries to smash to half guard, tries to force the guillotine from there, and that's basically the entirety of her skillset. AES isn't a fantastic grappler or anything, but Reneau wouldn't have gotten that triangle (that particular one, or the one she almost got before it) on anybody that knows what they're doing. She got out of the first triangle and just dove onto her with a hammerfist, with her other arm on the outside of Reneau's leg. There was a point where Reneau was obviously going for the triangle, but Andrade didn't seem to recognize it or care. Look how terrible her defense is.

I think AES has a really good chance to win as long as she doesn't literally put herself in a submission and fail to recognize she's going to get subbed until it's too late.

idk, her debut fight didn't inspire much confidence in me.. i get what you're saying about andrade trying to power through crap.. but doesn't she have a bjj background? it was pretty slickly set up by reneau..

 

[Jae Gibbz]

yea. he was slowing down before he ko'd hallmann, i was thinking hallmann had a chance in rd 3 (lol) -- being serious, tho. he was slowing down.

and yet again, short notice. and yea, he was up 2-0 vs burns and got subbed in 3rd etc

just a small bet on the +250

That's not bad, but I honestly like the o2.0, o2.5. I think Cerrone wins in the 3rd/4th round, and it also covers a decision win

 

[EzFlyer]

That's not bad, but I honestly like the o2.0, o2.5. I think Cerrone wins in the 3rd/4th round, and it also covers a decision win

yea, i hear that. i am thinking cowboy rd 3, myself.. but blech, only pays +650. hell, both guys rd 3 is +599. that's better. but still blech.

 

[Ballsaque]

I like Ashley a lot as an underdog, I think she should be the favorite. For some reason people seem to have gotten the idea that Reneau is a good striker, but she's really not. Neither is AES, but she has a solid clinch striking/wrestling game and should be able to control Reneau there. I think she'll be fine on the ground - Jessica Andrade has a very rudimentary grappling skillset and relies on strengthing everything and crushing for guillotines all the time. Her sloppy defense got her put in a triangle, she got out, and then just threw herself right into another triangle.

Yes she is. She's actually an excellent striker with solid fundamentals, especially for a woman. And if you don't think Ashley is a rudimentary grappler.. She got chocked out by a bulldog choke.. no hooks. Just terrible.

 

[EzFlyer]

murphy rd 2 +725
murphy rd 3 +1325

i think this is gonna be my play for this fight.

faszholz looks like a gasser to me. plus short notice. plus inexperienced. i think murphy wears her down and finishes her late. pays pretty nicely if so.

 

[michi972]

Many fights here from one ofc, bellator ufc, about 1£. Murphy+Reneau+Webb+Strickland+Camozzi+Bermudez+Brunson+Cerrone+Boku+Newton

 

[Sham5916910]

yea. he was slowing down before he ko'd hallmann, i was thinking hallmann had a chance in rd 3 (lol) -- being serious, tho. he was slowing down.

and yet again, short notice. and yea, he was up 2-0 vs burns and got subbed in 3rd etc

just a small bet on the +250

I think Hallmann was around +500 going into r3 it was one apiece. I def thought he had a chance too!

I cant see this going 5. Both guys are easy to hit and Cerrone has big advantage on the mat.

 

[lefontes]

what makes you say this? think fasholz gasses w/the short notice (and the fact that she looked like she gassed in prior fights) etc? murphy taps her? or some other lean?

Gasses, short notice (5 days), maybe cut weight because Fasholz is natural featherweight, inexperienced, ufc debut, good odds for this under, Murphy have 6 tko (8 victories). Many factors Ez... I think Murphy tko her in end of second round.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

First fight of the night the HWs I feel can go to the cards. Bumthony Hamilton has no striking skills I don't know how he gets by at Greg Jackson's. He has decent cardio to implement a ground attack but even then his TDs aren't very finesse, he's just a big body with OK athleticism for a HW. The Russian has more technique and he keeps it a bit more simple with the basic straight 1-2 punches. Then he adds spinning kicks/punches to mix it up occasionally and his grappling isn't a featured part of his game but he has enough to get by.

I'm not sure where the finish will manifest itself here but at odds of upwards +260 I think it's worth the risk. I think odds are that high based off HW principles of "1 hit is all it takes" but neither guy are sluggers.

Address any concerns with this play as I'd like to hear them. I'm basing this off somewhat limited knowledge but the value has me intrigued.

 

[Joseph Budden]

First fight of the night the HWs I feel can go to the cards. Bumthony Hamilton has no striking skills I don't know how he gets by at Greg Jackson's. He has decent cardio to implement a ground attack but even then his TDs aren't very finesse, he's just a big body with OK athleticism for a HW. The Russian has more technique and he keeps it a bit more simple with the basic straight 1-2 punches. Then he adds spinning kicks/punches to mix it up occasionally and his grappling isn't a featured part of his game but he has enough to get by.

I'm not sure where the finish will manifest itself here but at odds of upwards +260 I think it's worth the risk. I think odds are that high based off HW principles of "1 hit is all it takes" but neither guy are sluggers.

Address any concerns with this play as I'd like to hear them. I'm basing this off somewhat limited knowledge but the value has me intrigued.

Decided i'm gonna play the over and Abdurahimov. If Hamilton was still a moderate under dog I might have played him, but with current odds I don't feel like relying on him to hug his way to the win, which is his only chance.

Prob stab Shamil by dec as well for value. Think it was +800ish last time I looked