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***Official*** UFC 303 TONIGHT !!! Post Your Tapology Picks / Hype Thread

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It's Time!!! Post your UFC 303 picks in the ultimate Sherdog proving ground. Is the JBG on our side to go perfect?

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Some INSIDER Info for those still on the fence on who to pick :)

Bantamweights​

Ricky Simon (20-5, 8-4 UFC) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (20-3, 1-0 UFC)

ODDS: Simon (-218), Oliveira (+180)

This has the potential to be a barnburner, which is true of a lot of Oliveira’s fights. “Lok Dog” has been on the verge of a UFC callup for a while, and despite having nearly a decade of professional experience under his belt, the Brazilian has the game of a much younger man. Large and rangy for the bantamweight division, Oliveira mostly looks to stalk forward and hunt for the knockout. Given that there isn’t much defense built into that approach, Oliveira can often eat as much offense as he dishes out, but when things finally click, the results can be spectacular. He had a fairly pedestrian UFC debut against Benardo Sopai, until he was able to pour things on late and end the fight with a particularly brutal flying knee. That highlight-reel knockout was apparently enough for the UFC to decide to throw Oliveira right into the deep end and see if he can become an immediate contender, as Simon is just two fights removed from a five-fight winning streak and a main event spot. Simon came to the UFC in 2018 with a similarly reckless style built entirely around offense, but after a rough 2019 that included a 46-second knockout loss to Urijah Faber, he learned to fight behind a more calculated style. Simon’s combination of well-roundedness, athleticism and durability have seen him turn minor advantages into dominant victories, but his last two fights—losses to Yadong Song and Mario Bautista—have seen that work in the inverse. Both opponents were able to neutralize Simon’s wrestling and sting him on the feet, leaving him unable to find a point to pry the fight open. If nothing else, Simon’s wrestling and grappling should be a clear safety valve against Oliveira’s wide-open defense, but the American should also be able to take the tough route and win a shot-for-shot war of attrition on the feet, if needed. The pick is Simon via third-round submission.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira
 

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship​

#4 P4P | Alex Pereira (10-2, 7-1 UFC) vs. #1 LHW | Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1, 4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Pereira (-155), Prochazka (+130)

Pereira signing with the UFC in 2021 seemed like a short-term curiosity, but it pays off in amazing fashion once again, as “Poatan”—now clearly a championship-level mixed martial artist—steps in on short notice to save a high-profile card for the second time this year. An elite kickboxer, Pereira had dabbled in mixed martial arts at points before stepping into the Octagon, but once he was in the UFC, it came with a fairly clear and limited purpose. He had a built-in rivalry with then-champion Israel Adesanya from their kickboxing days, as Pereira had won both of their previous fights. Given the seemingly one-note nature of Pereira’s mixed martial arts game, the UFC needed to thread the needle in terms of matchmaking to get the Brazilian to championship contention. It managed to do so within a year, aided by Sean Strickland’s decision to strike with Pereira and quickly get knocked out, giving the Brazilian a credible high-level victory. Amusingly, Pereira’s first title fight against Adesanya went much the same as their kickboxing fights. Adesanya probably proved himself to be the better fighter in the aggregate, but Pereira walked away with the victory, in this case thanks to a come-from-behind knockout in the final round. The most money for everyone involved was in an immediate rematch, which took place six months later, at which point Adesanya finally scored his revenge to put an end to their rivalry for the time being while allowing everyone to move on. In Pereira’s case, it allowed him to finally stop making a massive weight cut and move up to 205 pounds. There was some intrigue as to how Pereira would fare in somewhat deeper waters at light heavyweight, but it took the Brazilian all of two fights in a matter of months to become champion of a second division. Pereira’s wrestling and grappling was just passable enough to skate by against Jan Blachowicz, but a knockout of Prochazka to win the then-vacant light heavyweight title was much more definitive. Meanwhile, 2024 has seen Pereira continually save the UFC’s proverbial bacon, starting with his headlining spot opposite Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 in April. The fight was slated for May until the UFC struggled to come up with a viable headliner for its biggest card of the year. It took Pereira all of three minutes and change to feel Hill out and obliterate him for the knockout, which left him fresh enough to do the UFC a favor once again after the company found itself without a main event. A title rematch against Prochazka was apparently scheduled for August, but the two instead lock horns here.

The UFC’s light heavyweight title picture struggled to find some stability after Jon Jones left the division in 2020, but it seemed like Prochazka might be the man to carry the division into the future. An athletic wildman who proved himself as a knockout artist in Japan, the Czech fighter made his UFC debut in 2020 and lived up to the hype in every way possible. Beyond a personality centered around an obsession with the Bushido code that manifests itself in unorthodox ways, Prochazka’s UFC fights have each been entertaining adventures. There’s almost no defense built into Prochazka’s approach, as he relies on his size, athleticism and vision to avoid things as they come—and hopefully return fire with something wild that can knock the opponent out. The former part of that equation rarely works out, as Prochazka mostly just eats whatever comes his way, but he’s so offensively potent that it usually doesn’t matter. His first three UFC fights, all wins, were a come-from-behind knockout of Volkan Oezdemir, a finish of Dominick Reyes in a fight that both men nearly won and one of the wildest back-and-forth title fights in recent memory against Glover Teixeira. Prochazka was forced to vacate the title—and miss a year—after a major shoulder injury suffered while training for a Teixeira rematch, but he picked up right where he left off in his attempt to win the championship back against Pereira. Only this time, Pereira proved to be the rare fighter with enough to knock Prochazka out. Prochazka caused some discomfort for Pereira, but the Brazilian managed to return that favor in kind, mostly on the back of some brutal leg kicks that slowly took away the former champion’s options before setting up the knockout. Prochazka’s lone fight since then—a win over Aleksandar Rakic on the same UFC 300 card that saw Pereira beat Hill—unsurprisingly suggests that he hasn’t learned much from the experience. Rakic mostly kicked Prochazka’s legs at will and had the fight in hand until “BJP” stormed back for a wild comeback and finish. Given that, Pereira essentially has to be the pick. Prochazka might be the more durable fighter in what figures to be another race to a knockout, and he’s always dangerous, but everything is laid out for Pereira to once again deconstruct him and score a finish in a similar fashion. The pick is Pereira via second-round knockout.

Jump To »
Pereira vs. Prochazka
Lopes vs. Ortega
Dolidze vs. Smith
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson
Garry vs. Page
The Prelims
 
Pretty confident Jiri will get it done. I don't know why, just a feeling I suppose.

Lopez has been too impressive so far, even with his loss against Mosvar. Ortega isn't landing a lucky submission on him.
 

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