Official UFC 196 Thread

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Sham5916910 said:
Considering Silva and Latifi are both -200 Silva is def safer play IMO. Villante can bang and its at LHW pretty sure one of them gets knocked out. Most the board are on Latifi but im still not sold on Latifi. Its a hard fight to call IMO.

How do we feel Holm line moves? I have Holm closing a £500 parlay so i can hedge now with Miesha @ +290 and guarantee myself approx £300 or so profit. But is Holm going to become a bigger fav? The lines barely moved.
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Yeah i hear you. I have 2u on Latifi -200 but im not sure theres much value in that line.
 
EzFlyer said:
you mean under-decisions, right? since that's the only way your suggestion would be bettable

which fights are likely finishes in your mind
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I see 3 likely to go to cards (Miller/Sanchez, Skelly/Elkins, Lawler/Anderson) and 4 more that have a very solid chance to (Ish/Juicy J, Saggo/Salas, Nunes/Savchenko, Tate/Holm).

So I think it will end up as 5-6. Would not touch that 5.5 line over or under for decisions. Would rather just play exactly 5 and 6 decisions if odds are decent.
 
man, oh, man. just watched so many of nate's fights, his highlights, etc. and i mean... the dude has NO POP in his hands. he's ko'd like one guy ever.. the ghost of gray maynard..

i don't think conor will be phased at all by anything nate throws at him...

subs are another question, but idk how nate gets it there
 
Sat 3/5 1061 Fight goes 1:01 round 1 -1200
11:59PM 1062 Fight won't go 1:01 round 1 +600
Sat 3/5 1063 Clock stoppage due to eye poke +400
11:59PM 1064 No clock stoppage due to eye poke -600
must touch gloves in the ring following fighter instructions and prior to fight starting
Sat 3/5 1065 Fighters touch gloves before fight +160
11:59PM 1066 No glove touch before fight starts -210

omg, these props
(5d)

i like no glove touch -210
 
hmm guess my bet on them to touch gloves @ +400 worked out well anyway :) going to freeroll that.
 
taleb +3.5 +145?

elkins +3.5 -160?

shevchenko +3.5 -140?

sanchez +3.5 -240?

bringing these ones up because IF these fighters don't get finished (all could, in theory), they are likely rd 3 winners, right? due to their dangerous opponents tendencies to fade later in the fight

honestly, i know -240 is not "cheap", but i have a hard time seeing sanchez +3.5 losing
 
wack3d said:
hmm guess my bet on them to touch gloves @ +400 worked out well anyway :) going to freeroll that.
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wait, was that on 5d at +400?

*edit* i see - it was was unibet
 
EzFlyer said:
Sat 3/5 1061 Fight goes 1:01 round 1 -1200
11:59PM 1062 Fight won't go 1:01 round 1 +600
Sat 3/5 1063 Clock stoppage due to eye poke +400
11:59PM 1064 No clock stoppage due to eye poke -600
must touch gloves in the ring following fighter instructions and prior to fight starting
Sat 3/5 1065 Fighters touch gloves before fight +160
11:59PM 1066 No glove touch before fight starts -210

omg, these props
(5d)

i like no glove touch -210
Click to expand...

I hit the no glove touch. Nate doesn't ever touch gloves does he?
 
so to be clear, it's no touching gloves AFTER the referee instructions and BEFORE the bell starts

so like a 2 second window
 
wow....no touch now -280 on 5d.

I hit it but shit thats pricey.
 
EzFlyer said:
Sat 3/5 1061 Fight goes 1:01 round 1 -1200
11:59PM 1062 Fight won't go 1:01 round 1 +600
Sat 3/5 1063 Clock stoppage due to eye poke +400
11:59PM 1064 No clock stoppage due to eye poke -600
must touch gloves in the ring following fighter instructions and prior to fight starting
Sat 3/5 1065 Fighters touch gloves before fight +160
11:59PM 1066 No glove touch before fight starts -210

omg, these props
(5d)

i like no glove touch -210
Click to expand...
Woooo those crazy Mystic Mac props for us muricans.

Shame no touch is -280 now, but i'll use it in a parlay. They aren't gonna touch
 
EzFlyer said:
has diaz ever touched gloves ?
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I don't know. I just tweeted him. I will see if he hits me back!

I am just scared of going big and then all of a sudden he feels respectful...
 
Card said:
"I think you should beat everybody on your worst day, but you can never be ready enough for a fight anyway," said Diaz, as transcribed by MMA Fighting. "Might get murked. Don't care, though. It's all good. Or he might."

"It would have been nice to get a camp. t's all good, whatever. I've went to camps, trained hard and fought like s*** Three weeks later, after eating as much as I want, hanging out, not doing nothing, came in and whooped everybody's ass in the gym anyway. So we'll see what happens."
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That sounds like a "I'm rich, don't care if I lose (losers mentality)"
 
Joseph Budden said:
LMAO!!!

But @EzFlyer, he has never touched gloves. This is Nate fuggin Diaz we're talking about, there is no chance hes touching gloves
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makes sense. Come fight time Nate is mad and also looking to troll. He might me cool after but before its all hostility.

I went big parlaying Meisha over along with Nate no touch - pays even monies.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
That sounds like a "I'm rich, don't care if I lose (losers mentality)"
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Wouldn't look too deep into it. The Diaz bros have always said something along those lines when asked for a 'prediction' or something of that nature.

Nick Diaz infamously said that they see all of these guys always thinking positive, but they take a different approach where they consciously think of all the negative things that can happen so that they aren't taken by surprise if it does.
 
I like Tate here. Especially at these odds.

I picked against holm in every fight until the Ronda fight. And that pick was made specifically because I thought Ronda has terrible stand up keeps her right hand down and holly throws a mean left high kick. I also thought Ronda being an emotional mess would help holm since I figured the fight would stay standing

Meisha will fight smart, it's women fighting so the chance of a flash ko is small.

I think she will be the one moving forward and eventually land some takedowns. That's a recipe for a decision if not for a possible submission since I think if it hits the mat she has a big edge in grappling

Liking everyone's logic on Sanchez silva lawler and betting against erosa

I think thatch starches burzada
 
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