Official UFC 196 Thread

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0.2u Lawlor sub +800.
0.2u Nunes r1 +300
0.2u Shevchenko dec +300 (will add more to this)
 
After some debating (in my head), I'm gonna play Shevchenko at +135.

I think she's a deserving dog though, Nunes has a wealth of experience over her with more notable names but Shevchenko has really good credentials and it helps overcome that disparity. They're definitely in eachother's leagues. Nunes is dangerous everywhere when it comes to power in her stand up and GnP but her strengths are also her weakness in that she tends to fade in fights throwing as hard as she does. Her winning the 1st round (or winning IN the 1st round) will be very pivotal for her.

Shevchenko may be smaller but on the other hand is faster and more dynamic in her attacks. She has really good cardio and can fight well in the clinch. I don't know how good her wrestling or her BJJ is yet but she has definitely built a decent base in it so far. She is one to look out for in the very near future when she gets more experience and more well-rounded I fully expect her to challenge for the title.

At this point in their careers though I could see Nunes walking away with the W using her grappling and size, but I don't trust her gas tank if she expends most of her energy trying to finish a champion of Muay Thai. I'm fully aware Germaine de Randamie was also a muay thai champion, but in MMA so far GDR has not integrated her style into MMA like Shevchenko has looked. Valentina is a southpaw and has a good array of spinning attacks, fundamentals withstanding. Bottom line, I'm not a fan of gassers and Shevchenko's got a full camp behind her.
 
Couple of Parlay ideas;

McGregor SU + Skelly No SC + Sanchez No SC (+241) 2u

McGregor SU + Nunes No SC + Not Guimaraes DEC (+105) 2u
 
Do you think that holm can finnish Tate ?

I'm thinking of parlay

1.Holm to finnish Tate
2.Connor wins round 1 or 2
3. Erick Silva (winner)

Gives x 5.94 the money.
 
Payed the juice for Erick Silva and Ilir latifi. Not feeling bad about it.
 
Hope people who wanted to bet Diaz when he was approaching Diaz listened... Diaz now up to +410.
 
How is Teruto Ishihara (I know he is from tuf) ? I don't think Julan Erosa is something special.
 
Johananwtf said:
How is Teruto Ishihara (I know he is from tuf) ? I don't think Julan Erosa is something special.
Click to expand...

Scrappy dude. His biggest issue (pun intended) is going to be navigating juicy j's substantial size advantage.

Ishi wants to throw down on the feet, basically.
 
EzFlyer said:
Scrappy dude. His biggest issue (pun intended) is going to be navigating juicy j's substantial size advantage.

Ishi wants to throw down on the feet, basically.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info! Hmm, maybe i skip this one then. Omg only three days left!
 
Johananwtf said:
Do you think that holm can finnish Tate ?

I'm thinking of parlay

1.Holm to finnish Tate
2.Connor wins round 1 or 2
3. Erick Silva (winner)

Gives x 5.94 the money.
Click to expand...
Hey mate,

I´m kind of doing the same thing as you. I got Holm/Conor on a parlay and thinking of adding Latifa instead. Why do you go for Erick Silva? Whats your reasons behind that? I´d like to learn as I´m not too familair with him but you sound sure since you´d add him in the paylay.

For holm finish - Yes i think she can do it. However, I´m not sure a finnish is the best bet. Might even go for a tko/ko - as she has ZERO submissions on her record. The only way I see her submitting Tate is if it goes to a scramble and she has practiced it hard to counter Tate´s supposingly better ground game with submissions.

I´ve spent hours researching on their fights and hearing other peoples predictions, and over all I´d say Meisha Tate is too much of a fighter and wants the win too much to want to let it go into a decision. So either it´ll be a fairly early stoppage or a late stoppage. She doesn´t have much reason to go to a decision, except if she gets a hell alot of takedowns due to the scoreboards will most likely heavily favor Holm with more strikes landed and control in the octagon.

So I´d say go for it. Theres a very good chance of it happening.

I´d be very interrested in hearing why you´d bet on Conor winning RO 1/2. Isn´t that risky even for Conor? Personalyl I´m choosing a finish. But i was tempted to go for a RO1/RO2 aswell. Whats your reasons behind it?

How much do you got on that paylay btw? I´m tempted to go in really big on those 2 fights, but I dont trust many of the other fights to go well.
 
Considering Silva and Latifi are both -200 Silva is def safer play IMO. Villante can bang and its at LHW pretty sure one of them gets knocked out. Most the board are on Latifi but im still not sold on Latifi. Its a hard fight to call IMO.

How do we feel Holm line moves? I have Holm closing a £500 parlay so i can hedge now with Miesha @ +290 and guarantee myself approx £300 or so profit. But is Holm going to become a bigger fav? The lines barely moved.
 
Looking forward to see the event props.

O5.5 ITD seems reasonable to me. And a small bet on O6.5 too,if the odds are good enough
 
Heeey! Cool dude. Holm and Conor is the fights i have most confidence for, it's pretty hard to not have them as favorites.
Thanks for your input about the fights, i agree with everything!

I'm not 100% sure yet if i will parlay silva, but i like this dude. But he has trained with RDA,Lyoto and Graice. I must think about it. Lafiti is even better for that parlay, he has the better wrestling and punches than Villante. So i may go for him to (And he is a swede, like me lol).

I think Conor want to finish quick, he wants to dominate. Maybe he will be cautious the first round, and in the second release the fury haha. That's my thougts pretty much. But of course Conor (finish) is the safest bet i think.

I'm not sure yet how much i will spend on this card. Maybe between 500 - 1000 swedish kr (50 - 100 euro).

I used to go for big parlays, but i was just losing money nearly, so now i want to play smart.
theantso said:
Hey mate,

I´m kind of doing the same thing as you. I got Holm/Conor on a parlay and thinking of adding Latifa instead. Why do you go for Erick Silva? Whats your reasons behind that? I´d like to learn as I´m not too familair with him but you sound sure since you´d add him in the paylay.

For holm finish - Yes i think she can do it. However, I´m not sure a finnish is the best bet. Might even go for a tko/ko - as she has ZERO submissions on her record. The only way I see her submitting Tate is if it goes to a scramble and she has practiced it hard to counter Tate´s supposingly better ground game with submissions.

I´ve spent hours researching on their fights and hearing other peoples predictions, and over all I´d say Meisha Tate is too much of a fighter and wants the win too much to want to let it go into a decision. So either it´ll be a fairly early stoppage or a late stoppage. She doesn´t have much reason to go to a decision, except if she gets a hell alot of takedowns due to the scoreboards will most likely heavily favor Holm with more strikes landed and control in the octagon.

So I´d say go for it. Theres a very good chance of it happening.

I´d be very interrested in hearing why you´d bet on Conor winning RO 1/2. Isn´t that risky even for Conor? Personalyl I´m choosing a finish. But i was tempted to go for a RO1/RO2 aswell. Whats your reasons behind it?

How much do you got on that paylay btw? I´m tempted to go in really big on those 2 fights, but I dont trust many of the other fights to go well.
Click to expand...
 
Sham5916910 said:
Considering Silva and Latifi are both -200 Silva is def safer play IMO. Villante can bang and its at LHW pretty sure one of them gets knocked out. Most the board are on Latifi but im still not sold on Latifi. Its a hard fight to call IMO.

How do we feel Holm line moves? I have Holm closing a £500 parlay so i can hedge now with Miesha @ +290 and guarantee myself approx £300 or so profit. But is Holm going to become a bigger fav? The lines barely moved.
Click to expand...

My guess is that Holly's line will get bet leading up to the fight especially as casuals realize that the "chick who knocked out Ronda" is fighting on Saturday night. I doubt there will be any huge movement since it's WMMA and her line is already super-expensive, but I'll be surprised if Meisha's line doesn't at least get above +300 by fight time. If I were looking to hedge I'd hold off until Saturday afternoon myself.
 
SirKratos said:
Looking forward to see the event props.

O5.5 ITD seems reasonable to me. And a small bet on O6.5 too,if the odds are good enough
Click to expand...

you mean under-decisions, right? since that's the only way your suggestion would be bettable

which fights are likely finishes in your mind
 
"I think you should beat everybody on your worst day, but you can never be ready enough for a fight anyway," said Diaz, as transcribed by MMA Fighting. "Might get murked. Don't care, though. It's all good. Or he might."

"It would have been nice to get a camp. t's all good, whatever. I've went to camps, trained hard and fought like s*** Three weeks later, after eating as much as I want, hanging out, not doing nothing, came in and whooped everybody's ass in the gym anyway. So we'll see what happens."
 
EzFlyer said:
you mean under-decisions, right? since that's the only way your suggestion would be bettable

which fights are likely finishes in your mind
Click to expand...

Oops sorry, apperantely there won't be a 'Over/Under finishes ITD' option.There never was

You know what, 'O/U fight ends in KO/TKO' option make much more sense for this event anyway. Since I believe most of the finishes will likely to be KO/TKO's.

Villante-Latifi
McGregor-Diaz
Thatch-Bahadurzada
Guimaraes-Miranda
Silva-Taleb (Could be,but there is a good chance it ends in a sub)

Lets say 3 KOs from these 5. Worst scenario.

And probably one more knockouts from the remaining fights ? There has to be.

So 4 KO/TKO's it is . Lets see what the odds will look like
 
SirKratos said:
Oops sorry, apperantely there won't be a 'Over/Under finishes ITD' option.There never was

You know what, 'O/U fight ends in KO/TKO' option make much more sense for this event anyway. Since I believe most of the finishes will likely to be KO/TKO's.

Villante-Latifi
McGregor-Diaz
Thatch-Bahadurzada
Guimaraes-Miranda
Silva-Taleb (Could be,but there is a good chance it ends in a sub)

Lets say 3 KOs from these 5. Worst scenario.

And probably one more knockouts from the remaining fights ? There has to be.

So 4 KO/TKO's it is . Lets see what the odds will look like
Click to expand...
There are over/under decisions, which kind of translate the same way I think? Could be wrong, no coffee yet, brain barely functioning

So, for example, you want to bet o5.5 fights end itd, then you would bet under 5.5 fights go to decision.
 
Joseph Budden said:
There are over/under decisions, which kind of translate the same way I think? Could be wrong, no coffee yet, brain barely functioning

So, for example, you want to bet o5.5 fights end itd, then you would bet under 5.5 fights go to decision.
Click to expand...

Yeah,exactly.

Its just that I usually start counting the fights I predict it would end ITD so that would've been a little easier.

I know, I'm too lazy to do the following math: (Number of bouts on the card - Number of ITD predictions) = Under X finishes.

Anyway, as I mentioned earlier, I feel like betting on over/under KO TKO could be smarter for this event.
 
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