Official UFC 196 Thread

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Timurd123 said:
This will be man vs boy
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Are you referring to size? That was my assumption as well but Brett Okamoto said he thinks Conor will be bigger on fight night and he has probably been standing next to each a few times with reporting, interviews, etc.

From the espn chat wrap:

Addison (Indianapolis)

How does McGregor match up with RDA size wise? I know Connor is big for his class but will RDA have an advantage in that dept?

Brett Okamoto
(1:53 PM)

Conor is bigger. He's taller, longer and based on just weight alone, I bet he'll be heavier than RDA when they fight. Not by a lot, but he'll be the bigger guy.
 
My OCD is waiting for this thread title to be changed to Official UFC 196 Thread
 
Tempted to bet in RDA at 2.20 because I think he wil be the fav at some point.

The fight is hard to cap. Probably one of the best matches in UFC history but they are not promoting it as they should (maybe they want to silence Conor a little bit).

RDA is a monster everywhere and the pressure he puts on guys is a nightmare. You dont dominate Pettis, Cerrone, Nate Diaz and Benson Henderson like that if you are not a very special fighter.
Plus he has one of the best MMA trainers in Rafael Cordeiro. That is the guy who made RDA and Werdum champions... put Beneil Dariush in the top 10 and made Shogun win a fight based on a fucking gameplan (against Lil Nog).

Remember Werdum? He was counted out by a lot of people. Including that liar bum Barrygold when he said Cain had value at -400 or something around... well... Rafael Cordeiro made Werdum dominate Cain like nothing.

On the other hand Conor is a Anderson Silva speciment too.. ferocious counterstriker with a granite chin. But not only that, he is excellent at bullying and pressuring guys when he smells blood too. Amazing killer instinct and incredible precission in his hands.
A red flag I see is that he always seems happy to get punched in order to land his own. That is going to get him so far, but at some point he is going to get hurt in a fight and when he does I think the whole mental game and confidence (his stronger asset) are going to be broken.

Whoever imposes his gameplan here wins the fight in a spectacular fashion. I think it will not be close AT ALL so it must be shit ton of value on one side.. I just cant figure which one is.

At the end of the day.. I dont think Im betting on this one. I want to enjoy it as a fan.
 
barrygood1 said:
Ok, I'm sick and tired of the so called Sherdog Betting $harps thinking the line is off and RDA is the value pick. Take it from someone who has been MURDERING the bookies by betting UFC fights and continually profiting event after event. I cap this fight -150 Mcgregor and personally I wouldn't touch RDA at +175 or better. Mcgregor is the real deal and is better than a prime Chuck Liddell. After he beat Max Holloway I knew he was something special. I see him going on an Anderson Silva like winning streak and nothing has made me think otherwise. He obliterated the # 4 pound MMA fighter Aldo when all of the anti-mcrgregor detractors thought he would lose.

The first issue we have with RDA is that there have been highly speculated rumors of juicing because of his sudden resurgence. Evidence of this is clearly seen from before and after pics from when he entered the UFC and once he started winning. There's not a chance he will be the same fighter with all the random testing that he will get for banned substances. The only advantage RDA has is in Jiu Jitsu but Mcregors take down defence has improved ten fold since his submission loss to Duffy. As highly decorated a wrestler as Chad Mendes is, he couldn't even lay and pray Connor so what makes you think RDA will considering the recent change with referee's standing fighters up i.e Sage/Pfister ring a bell. RDA takes him down Connor is getting right back up and if you've noticed wrestlers haven't been fairing too well since all of the illegal substances tests ahem Hendricks cough cough...

This fight will be fought on the feet and if it goes to the ground, I guarantee Herb Dean or Yamasaki will not allow a lay and pray fest. The fans won't allow it either and considering how popular Mcgregor is like it or not he will get preferential treatment in what I like to call the "star" effect. All superstar moneymakers get this treatment such as Floyd Mayweather. How many times did he blatantly hold on to his opponent, watch his fights and see what I mean.

I will be pounding Mcgregor like I did when he fought Aldo and I'll for the most part be coming out a winner as will the followers who subscribe to my MMA service.
I thought I'd share my expert analysis considering how much disinformation there is about the odds surrounding this particular fight.

- Barry
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Barry, you are the man! Thanks so much for your breakdown. I saw somewhere else that you now run a subscription service with your recommended bets. How can I sign up?
 
Ladbrokes has McGregor to beat RDA after being taken down at evens. GOAT to challenge Lawler post fight +500. Loads of other lines too.
 
Anyone who is on the McGregor side care to elaborate on why they think RDA won't be able to do what Mendes did through most of the first two rounds of the fight?

Mendes got hit with some decent shots, but landed some good ones of his own. Had a fair degree of success with the takedowns and ground and pound.

Why can't RDA implement something like this, but more successful? That's how I think things will go, but I've been wrong on McGregor in the past (for clarity - no I'm not just against him every fight, haha)
 
Foghorn Leghorn said:
Anyone who is on the McGregor side care to elaborate on why they think RDA won't be able to do what Mendes did through most of the first two rounds of the fight?

Mendes got hit with some decent shots, but landed some good ones of his own. Had a fair degree of success with the takedowns and ground and pound.

Why can't RDA implement something like this, but more successful? That's how I think things will go, but I've been wrong on McGregor in the past (for clarity - no I'm not just against him every fight, haha)
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Don't think RDA will even have a chance to get his grappling going. He needs to be against the fence, I can't recall seeing him use it effectively out in the open. And McGregor is the best there is at controlling the octagon. Its going to be much tougher for RDA to wrestle than it will be for Conor to outstrike RDA.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Don't think RDA will even have a chance to get his grappling going. He needs to be against the fence, I can't recall seeing him use it effectively out in the open. And McGregor is the best there is at controlling the octagon. Its going to be much tougher for RDA to wrestle than it will be for Conor to outstrike RDA.
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Yeah the way I see it is IF Conor gets taken down by RDA it's MUCH worse for him than when Mendes took him down. Like, Conor would be in real trouble of getting subbed. I think on the mat there's really that gigantic a difference in grappling.

BUT that said I think RDA's chances of getting it to the mat are WAY less than a Mendes, Edgar, Khabib (obviously), etc. RDA can't shoot a double from distance like those guys. He doesn't have the timing in level changes like those guys do.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Don't think RDA will even have a chance to get his grappling going. He needs to be against the fence, I can't recall seeing him use it effectively out in the open. And McGregor is the best there is at controlling the octagon. Its going to be much tougher for RDA to wrestle than it will be for Conor to outstrike RDA.
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But why can't he do what Mendes does? The fight is up on YouTube, I just rewatched it today and Mendes definitely gives McGregor some trouble, and I could see RDA putting McGregor into similar spots, except being a more dangerous fighter thus causing more problems.

I think it's a close matchup though, and like RDA at dog odds.

edit: to clarify, Mendes doesn't necessarily find himself in the greatest spots positionally (his biggest error in the fight) but does still find success in some regard (landing some clean, solid punches as well as some takedowns particularly when he picks up and slams McGregor). Also, for anyone interested here is the fight:

 
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Foghorn Leghorn said:
But why can't he do what Mendes does? The fight is up on YouTube, I just rewatched it today and Mendes definitely gives McGregor some trouble, and I could see RDA putting McGregor into similar spots, except being a more dangerous fighter thus causing more problems.

I think it's a close matchup though, and like RDA at dog odds.

edit: to clarify, Mendes doesn't necessarily find himself in the greatest spots positionally (his biggest error in the fight) but does still find success in some regard (landing some clean, solid punches as well as some takedowns particularly when he picks up and slams McGregor). Also, for anyone interested here is the fight:

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RDA doesn't have the power double that Mendes has in his toolbox. As JB said, he will have to push him up against the fence which will be difficult.
 
Agent Mulder said:
RDA doesn't have the power double that Mendes has in his toolbox. As JB said, he will have to push him up against the fence which will be difficult.
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That's simplifying too much. Mendes doesn't exactly hit McGregor with any Koscheck-style power doubles where he just spams the whole time.

-McGregor goes for a kick, gets caught and taken down (5 seconds into the fight)

-They move to the centre, McGregor almost gets a lazy front kick caught again, which is when Mendes hits him with the power double/slam (2:50 remaining in the round)

-McGregor keeps a decent guard, gets up quickly. Gets busted up fairly well in the process. Gets corked with a big overhand right (perhaps the most "rocked" he's been in the UFC) immediately after getting up

-With 1:17 remaining in the round, McGregor is pushing forwards as Mendes nears the cage. Mendes dodges a punch, gets double underhooks and scores another takedown (much more easily this time). Gets into half guard, then side control, almost takes his back, almost mounts him in search of a guillotine. Busts McGregor up well in the process

-At just about 20 seconds into the second round, Mendes tries another power double that gets stuffed

-Then at 4:13 remaining in the round, McGregor throws some punches, Mendes ducks under and hits McGregor with another double-leg (his 4th takedown of the fight)

-McGregor has Mendes in his guard for almost 4 minutes before Mendes passes the guard, attempts a submission (and fails) allowing McGregor to escape.

-When they stand with about 30 seconds left in the round, Mendes tries for another power double (stuffed) and the fight ends shortly after as Mendes is spent

From my POV, I just can't see McGregor as the favourite so that's why I'm going to be putting my coin on RDA. For anyone who hasn't seen the Mendes/McGregor fight in awhile, it's definitely worth a rewatch. It's much "closer" than I remember it being.

I would just like to hear from people who think RDA can't find greater success where Mendes found mild success.
 
Foghorn Leghorn said:
That's simplifying too much. Mendes doesn't exactly hit McGregor with any Koscheck-style power doubles where he just spams the whole time.

-McGregor goes for a kick, gets caught and taken down (5 seconds into the fight)

-They move to the centre, McGregor almost gets a lazy front kick caught again, which is when Mendes hits him with the power double/slam (2:50 remaining in the round)

-McGregor keeps a decent guard, gets up quickly. Gets busted up fairly well in the process. Gets corked with a big overhand right (perhaps the most "rocked" he's been in the UFC) immediately after getting up

-With 1:17 remaining in the round, McGregor is pushing forwards as Mendes nears the cage. Mendes dodges a punch, gets double underhooks and scores another takedown (much more easily this time). Gets into half guard, then side control, almost takes his back, almost mounts him in search of a guillotine. Busts McGregor up well in the process

-At just about 20 seconds into the second round, Mendes tries another power double that gets stuffed

-Then at 4:13 remaining in the round, McGregor throws some punches, Mendes ducks under and hits McGregor with another double-leg (his 4th takedown of the fight)

-McGregor has Mendes in his guard for almost 4 minutes before Mendes passes the guard, attempts a submission (and fails) allowing McGregor to escape.

-When they stand with about 30 seconds left in the round, Mendes tries for another power double (stuffed) and the fight ends shortly after as Mendes is spent

From my POV, I just can't see McGregor as the favourite so that's why I'm going to be putting my coin on RDA. For anyone who hasn't seen the Mendes/McGregor fight in awhile, it's definitely worth a rewatch. It's much "closer" than I remember it being.

I would just like to hear from people who think RDA can't find greater success where Mendes found mild success.
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Well again, it comes down to the wrestling and how Mendes and RDA differ in the application. Mendes gets in on the hips out in the open and turns a sharp corner to score all the takedowns. Also good to keep in mind that scoring these types of takedows is made easier by Mendes being orthodox and McGregor a southpaw.

As far as I can remember, RDA has always relied on backing guys up, duck down to get in on the hips and pull them out from underneath against the cage. This is not the best takedown style to have against a ring general the likes of Conor, who is not going to back up.

I do think RDA's top game is better though.
 
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vkram said:
I will probably be on RDA if he will get above evens, stylistic nightmare match up for Conor but I hate betting against him.
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Bad matchup for Conor? This is a bad matchup for RDA. A guy who loves to pressure against a guy who excels when he's pressured. Diaz, Ferguson and Pettis are tougher matchups for Conor.
 
Lionel Mandrake said:
LOL.... Pettis and Conor have similar styles and look how it ended up for him.
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Pettis and Conor have similar styles.... WTF... They're nothing alike. One guy has great kicks, but struggles when he's pressured. The other guy has some of the best hands in the UFC, and excels when he's pressured.
 
Bradillac said:
Pettis and Conor have similar styles.... WTF... They're nothing alike. One guy has great kicks, but struggles when he's pressured. The other guy has some of the best hands in the UFC, and excels when he's pressured.
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I'm fully expecting a lot of casuals to say "Pettis and Conor are similar" lol
 
Bradillac said:
Bad matchup for Conor? This is a bad matchup for RDA. A guy who loves to pressure against a guy who excels when he's pressured. Diaz, Ferguson and Pettis are tougher matchups for Conor.
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I kind of have to agree with you here, looked deeper into the fight and realised that its not what it seems like at first. RDA isn't really known for a power double unlike Chad. Although, I disagree with you on Diaz being a tougher matchup, its as easy of a matchup that Conor can get from the top LWs. Diaz has no wrestling to threaten Conor and in a standup Conor picks him apart IMO.
 
vkram said:
I kind of have to agree with you here, looked deeper into the fight and realised that its not what it seems like at first. RDA isn't really known for a power double unlike Chad. Although, I disagree with you on Diaz being a tougher matchup, its as easy of a matchup that Conor can get from the top LWs. Diaz has no wrestling to threaten Conor and in a standup Conor picks him apart IMO.
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I honestly think Conor is going to make RDA look foolish. RDA won't be able to hold Conor against the fence, and Conor will pick him apart until he finally finishes RDA in the first or second. I don't think Diaz would beat Conor, but I think he'd put up a better fight than RDA. RDA is the perfect fight to make Conor look like a monster.
 
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