Gil/Eddie
initially I thought Gil was going to win as I essentially pictured this fight as a 155-pound version of JDS vs Cain; however, this past I have bounced back and forth between these two and I'm really not sure who to pick. certainly, this is very close fight on paper, and if both guys come in at 100% then I think it's almost fifty-fifty matchup.
Eddie Alvarez has proven that he can defeat a hard-nosed D1 wrestler with solid boxing as he defeated Michael Chandler -- a fighter who IMO is every bit as good as Gil at this point of their careers. moreover, that was a 5 round fight where Alvarez not only displayed great cardio but WON the 5th round vs. Chandler as he actually mounted him in the last 60 sec. Alvarez showed great cardio and takedown defense vs. a stud D1 wrestler in Chandler and has been able to win striking matches vs. great boxers like Pat Curran in another 5-R fight. To put it simply, Alvarez is super versatile and comfortable wherever the fight takes place.
meanwhile Gilbert Melendez is an absolute stud who is only 1 fight removed from fighting for the UFC 155 lb title vs. Benson Henderson in a 5 round affair most thought he won. knowing this, at 33. what's more, with this fight only being 3 rounds I think that if favors "El Nino" as he is able to basically sprint the entire time. I don't think that Gilbert is too far out from his prime and his style is tailor-made to beat a guy like Eddie if he fights smart. that said, with this fight being in Mexico combined with Gil's pride, I think we may see him eschew strategy, bite down on his mouthpiece and throw down. the problem is, Eddie Alvarez is not Diego Sanchez and if you just stand in the pocket and trade blows with Eddie, you may wind up picking your teeth up off of the canvas.
While Eddie Alvarez has great offensive boxing, defensively his game is solid he gets dropped in almost every big-time five he has been in. Specifically, Alvarez was knocked down by Hellboy Hansen, Roger Huerta, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Michael Chandler, and most recently Donald Cerrone. The problem with Eddie's boxing is the he will too often rely on his speed and reflexes and unwisely leaves his hands low instead of keeping them high to protect his chin. Unsurprisingly, this allows his opponents to land flush shots on his chin and drop him just as the aforementioned fighters were able to do.
Another bad trait that Alvarez has is that he will throw out a lead right jab and allow his opponent to come over the top of it and crack him and illustrated in the gif below. although Gilbert is not known for his one shot knockout ability, if he can land a clean shot on Alvarez like Michael Chandler in there first fight , there is a very good chance Gil can wrap things up early. Here's the gif demonstrating one of Eddie's flaws as he throws a lazy lead left jab allowing Chandler to counter it by coming OTT with a smoking righthand.
However, even if Eddie is able to survive the knock down as he has done in the past, in a three round fight against someone the caliber of Melendez you cannot afford to get knocked down and subsequently lose a round. This is something that we have to consider placing a bet on Alvarez because getting dropped for him is not an isolated event but more of a trend.
Offensively, Eddie is a good striker and he uses his great athleticism and explosiveness to his full potential when he is striking. Because of his footwork and fast hands Eddie can throw a myriad of techniques that other fighters are unable to throw such as lead uppercuts and lunging straight rights. That said, this ability can be both a blessing and a curse as it often causes Alvarez to take shortcuts and eschew good technique. this lack of respect for the fundamentals (hand up / chin tucked) has seen him get dropped in numerous occasions as mentioned and you can see here as MC land the OR & immediately sinks in the RNC:
Due to his speed, Eddie is extremely adept at closing the distance on his opponent and landing hard shots and then getting out of the pocket before getting countered. I do think that Eddie will enjoy a decent speed advantage over Gilbert and if he can get in and out of the pocket without giving clipped I think he might be able to frustrate Gil and force him into making a bad decision which Eddie can capitalize on.
these two fighters do have a few common opponents and if you look, Gilbert has fared better against them -- in particular, Tatsuya Kawajiri. though it happened in '08, Alvarez had a lot of trouble vs. Kawajiri as the two of them engaged in an absolute epic war. meanwhile, in stark contrast, Gilbert absolutely dusted Kawajiri in the first frame.
Gilbert's boxing is criminally underrated and I believe that it has been to the detriment of many of his competitors who come in believing that he is essentially a wrestler only. For instance, although he is not a common opponent of the two, there is one fighter who Melendez fought who has a style that is that is very similar to Alvarez's and that is Jorge Masvidal. it's not too often that you see Jorge get out-boxed, yet Gilbert absolutely picked him apart and pieced him so bad that in the waning seconds of the final round Jorge was the one shooting for a takedown. In his fight with Jorge, not only did Gilbert win the boxing match, but that fight was contested 100% on the feet and Gilbert never once shot for a takedown and instead stood and engaged Jorge in a kickboxing match for 25 minutes where he thoroughly chewed up the ATT representative at his own game. For five rounds Gilbert stuck the jab in Jorge's face repeatedly like a piston while continuously plastering him with a vicious overhand right directly behind it that again and again hit it's target like a laser-guided missile.
indeed, on the feet Masvidal is extremely similar to Alvarez in that he too is a great boxer with terrific technique and fundamentals. in his fight vs. Masvidal in Strikeforce, Gilbert was very successful standing with the slick boxer,and you can see in the gif below just how Gilbert works off his jab -- popping it out there and then firing had rights behind it which land on Jorge repeatedly. indeed, this 20 second gif is basically a re-run of the whole fight.
Indeed, Gil's boxing is not overly flamboyant and is instead basic and very technical almost like what we saw from BJ Penn for so many years. Similarly to BJ, Gil's boxing is almost exclusively predicated on the jab - perhaps the most underutilized of all offensive striking weapons in MMA today. from the orthodox position, every thing that Gilbert does with his boxing is set up off of his left jab which he throws like a lance often doubling and tripling up on it which works to mask the long straight right hand that is following directly behind it. Essentially, the jab itself is almost a smokescreen to set up that hard right hand which does all the damage and looks great to the judges as it is snaps his opponents head back like a Pez dispenser. Gil also has excellent cardio as you can see him still eating Jorge up in r5 of their fight in the gif below:
at current odds I would probably say that Gil is the better bet since he came up so much and I'm picking him to win a close s/d in Mexico.
