McGregor has a shot here. A legit one. Aldo plods a lot in comparison to Conor, and will plod even more so cos he won't be fearing a takedown from the Irishman. Conor's movement & speed might play an effective role. This is not the write of that might be first imagined.
I agree with you, I think McGregor has a shot, but I still think Aldo takes it.
Plodding isn't necessarily a bad thing. Aldo's style is tight on defense and relatively low risk, but he moves forward with good pressure, and has a good base for powerful strikes. His arsenal is bolstered with a combination of speed, accuracy, and reaction time, all backed by a very solid chin and counter-punch game. Without the fear of a TD, I expect him to open up more in the standing, and fully see him getting hit, but giving it right back each time, before he adjusts and starts to take over.
I think McGregor's best approach will be some success from angles, but he doesn't really wrestle, and doesn't seem to utilize lateral movement so much. By that, I mean if we look at the recent work coming from the Alpha Male camp, those guys are moving like Cruz, constantly triangle stepping, using lots of high energy lateral movement and such to nullify leg kicks or land on more stationary Muy Thai stylists. McGregor, by comparison, tends to stalk/throw high risk spinning moves in order to confuse or close distance, and rely on his speed/athleticism to get himself out of trouble. And though he only briefly has to contend with defense, he tends to move straight back before resuming forward pressure on counters. Siver was able to hit him a number of times because of this tendency, but didn't have the tools to capitalize.
I think Aldo game plans this one and beats him out in a 5 round affair with moments of brilliance from each clash, en route to a decision.
That said, McGregor is a very fun fighter to watch and is great for the division. FW is growing increasingly deep and has a number of sharks in the water, these days. I feel for anyone who has to swim in those waters, and credit to Aldo for reigning there all this time.