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Occams Razor predicts Diaz The Winner over Pettis

Isn't it a little early in the school year to be learning about Occam's Razor, already...?
 
this fight is Pettis' cardio vs Nate's toughness. Pettis is without a doubt the quicker, smoother fighter and will probably light him up early, but Nate not only is tough as shit he also has great cardio and Pettis usually slows down later in the fight so it will be interesting. one more thing is Pettis says he's gonna leg kick the shit out of him, Conor somewhat slowed Nate down with the leg kicks and Pettis is the better kicker.
 
The other factor here is the #1 fallacy on Sherdog: recency bias, AKA "All that matters is your last fight." Pettis is coming off an upset...in a fight he was losing that ended with a hail mary superman punch (not as relevant as people think). Diaz is coming off a long layoff (relevant) and a decision loss to pre-Mayweather Conor who was quite a good MMA fighter (2-division champ). That's not very relevant at this point.

With their ground skills being similar (strong submissions and sub-defense; weak wrestling), this comes down to striking. And a very durable pressure fighter with superior boxing and cardio > a dynamic kicker who's only used leg kicks with some success in one fight.
 
I got diaz in this fight because pettis tends to crumble if he faces unrelenting pressure. I don't think some pseudo-intellectual explanation is necessary.
 
boladiQup said:
this fight is Pettis' cardio vs Nate's toughness. Pettis is without a doubt the quicker, smoother fighter and will probably light him up early, but Nate not only is tough as shit he also has great cardio and Pettis usually slows down later in the fight so it will be interesting. one more thing is Pettis says he's gonna leg kick the shit out of him, Conor somewhat slowed Nate down with the leg kicks and Pettis is the better kicker.
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And Conor (at least back then) was a better boxer than Pettis with a longer reach...so he could handle Nate's boxing better. Also, with Conor's post-Mayweather antics, people seem to forget his 4 fight series before he tried boxing:

  1. Conor KO's Aldo in the first round to win the FW belt (first time Aldo had ever been KO'd)
  2. Conor get finshed by Nate
  3. Conor beat Nate by decision
  4. Conor KO'd Eddie Alvarez to win the LW belt
Going 1-1 and not getting KO'd by Conor at that time was pretty impressive.
 
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It's true. Pettis sucks now. Sure he beat Wonderboy, but Wonderboy hasn't looked good in ages. Diaz could very well box him up, but Diaz is so one dimensional. All Pettis has to do is throw leg kicks and it should be an easy win. If he can't get within kicking range without getting hit by Diaz, he could easily lose though.
 
LukeSkyrocker said:
This is the weakest analysis and laziest utilization of Occams’ razor i’ve ever heard. For one thing out of your TWO points, one is that Pettis cuts easily. DIAZ cuts worse than ANYONE in the sport!!!! Stupidness all around.
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oddly enough, the decision by the judges might come down to who looks worse at the end. Diaz probably does cut easier than Pettis, but most likely Diaz will land more punches on Pettis. i keep going back and forth, but am leaning Diaz now
 
BluntForceTrama said:
occams razor is the principle that basically eliminates overly complicated and presumptuous arguments or scenarios.

Arguments under this are generally much more simple and to the point and most of all more likely to happen.


Here are the main premises in this fight for Diaz


1) Diaz is the supreme striker here in terms of boxing skills. Leg kicks or not, he will hit Pettis and will likely hit him many times tomorrow night

2) Pettis has a paper skinned face. Especially lately. People seem to forget how easily this guy cuts.


It may be overly simplistic but under these two premises it is hard to see thus any other way despite Pettis’s unpredictability and showtime character.

I believe under this argument, Pettis will succumb or be forced to surrender this fight.

In the 3rd round Imho.

Let us revisit
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Here's a simpler one.

Pettis was a champ.
 
Man this one shows how the concept can be viewed very many ways.
First page gave me a headache.
 
Occam's Razor says...

Anthony Pettis > Benson Henderson > Nate Diaz

Therefore,

Anthony Pettis > Nate Diaz

MMA Math is 99% when it's the 3rd Saturday of a month, but the date is less than the 19th day of the month.

Pettis has this one via head kick.
 
LockardTheGOAT said:
Eh, under Occam's Razor Pettis would probably be the winner, actually.

1. Pettis is normally around the caliber of fighter that beats Diaz.

2. Pettis has a larger skill set than Nate does - he's a more diverse striker and he has better footwork. Nate's better with his hands, but Pettis is better with his feet and he can work Nate from a lot of angles. Plus he excels at what is arguably Nate's biggest weakness, which are leg kicks. Both men have strong Ju-Jitsu games, so that cancels each other out.

3. Nate isn't the most defensive minded cat in the game, so that might allow Showtime to get off some flashy maneuvers on Nate that could win points with the judges. Nate's defense and Wonderboy's defense are like night and day compared to each other.

4. Nate is pillow fisted, so it's unlikely he'll TKO Pettis within a three round fight. Pettis' cardio should hold up long enough within that time frame to beat Diaz as well.

5. Nate hasn't fought in three years; who knows if that could play a factor or not.
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Fuck man, you earned that red belt with that logical break down.
All your points are basically the reason I'm betting on Pettis (will show bet slip)
You forgot that Nate Diaz trains with bums, similar to BJ Penn. Nate trains with people like Chris Avila..
 
LukeSkyrocker said:
This is the weakest analysis and laziest utilization of Occams’ razor i’ve ever heard. For one thing out of your TWO points, one is that Pettis cuts easily. DIAZ cuts worse than ANYONE in the sport!!!! Stupidness all around.
Click to expand...
Occams' Razor is what literature major's take into the bathroom instead of Playboy....<YayKpop>
 
Nate wins, cause he fought Conor (Occam Razor)
 
I prefer Hitchens Razor for this one. What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence and I don't have enough info about how this will go seeing as Diaz is in his mid 30s and hasn't fought for 3 years and would probably do better in a 5 rounder. That being said Pettis is a hot and cold fighter and neither has faced eachother before so I don't know where to gauge this fight. It's a coin flip to me.
 
What so elaborate about Nate being out for 3 years
 
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