To be honest, in layman's terms, it's more that the variability of the male is higher than the female, due to the XY chromosomes. The Y is missing a leg that would make it an X and the missing data leads to greater variability.
This is why we have many smarter, faster, taller etc etc males than females, likewise many more stupid, slow, short etc etc males than females.
So, ball park estimation here, if any of the top 10% men transition, they'll destroy near every woman in the world.
So like, trans m 2 f have between a 1/100 and 1/10 chance of being world beaters in their sport of choice that they've been training in for some time.