- Joined
- Feb 8, 2012
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mostly because i like Jon Gray hereWhat rationale for under? Both pitchers have been brutal lately. Esp Romano with a 16:12 K:BB ratio over his last 4 starts. I think in their combined last 8 starts these 2 haven't given up less than 4 ER even once.
He has a 5.68 ERA but I dont care about that. He's striking out over 10.5 batters per 9 innings while walking less than 3 per 9. He's also allowing less than 1 HR per 9 innings, which is fantastic, especially considering that number is skewed because 7 of his 12 starts have been at Coors (he's only allowed 2 home runs in 27.1 innings pitched on the road). The thin air isn't the only park factor in Coors; it has huge dimensions and its easy for hits to land. Gray's BABIP this year is 0.376 (to anyone unfamiliar with BABIP, its the batting average for balls in play. so any time a batter makes contact this season, 37.6% of the time it has turned into a hit, which is stupidly unsustainable)
The Reds are 24th in the MLB in wRC+ against RHP and 21st in wOBA against RHP. I dont like their chances of getting to Gray
So, imo, you're totally banking on Romano imploding for the over to hit. It's possible, but the Rockies are 29th in the league in wRC+ against RHP (it's a weighted statistic so they factor out the Coors' park factors)