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If anyone likes watching great Hockey goaltending this Blackhawks/Blues series is amazing. Elliot and Crawford both standing on their heads. Fun to watch. Who will blink first?
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Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - April 2016
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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2.5u big-boy bet on murray +3.5 +100 Saturday morning.
Had the 2u play on nadal at -118 vs wawrinka... On the same day murray 6-2 6-0'd raonic... And then somehow nadal goes from -118 vs Stan to nearly -300 vs murray??? 3.5 evens ? Makes no sense.
Going with a unit on tsonga ML as a small dog, but murray +3.5 is my biggie.
Had the 2u play on nadal at -118 vs wawrinka... On the same day murray 6-2 6-0'd raonic... And then somehow nadal goes from -118 vs Stan to nearly -300 vs murray??? 3.5 evens ? Makes no sense.
Going with a unit on tsonga ML as a small dog, but murray +3.5 is my biggie.
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Well done man, baseball ain't easy, such a grind. I almost gave up on it for good last year, actually did give up onn it around the allstar break b/c I was getting my ass handed to me so bad, lol. Did well in the playoffs though.
Didn't post my plays but went 1-1 for a small loss, won on White sox, lost on yanks. still have the Dbacks so can maybe sneak back into the black by the end of the night.
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Baseball can be tough for sure. For me what seems to work best is fading mediocre to poor pitchers against teams that don't normally score a ton of runs. Of course it doesn't always work, but it at least seems like the books and the betting public don't always put enough weight on a pitcher that struggles to get big league hitters out.
Meaning you see a pitcher that has an ERA of close to 5 over the last year or 2 and if he's pitching against a good offense you'll see their team total at 4.5 or even 5 sometimes. But if he's pitching against a mediocre or below average offense, you'll sometimes see those team totals at 3.5 (and o/u for the game at 7.5 or 7). I tend to do pretty well with overs on lines like this. This is my opinion and I haven't put anything together tracking it, but I believe the pitcher's #'s hold truer to form than the opposing offenses in matchups like this. Against a back of the rotation guy who's been struggling, I'll take a major league offense to score 4 or more runs more times than not. I especially like these bets on road teams as they are guaranteed to hit in the 9th inning even if they are ahead.
Example: I'm hitting the o7 pretty hard (not going crazy but 2u on it) in the SD/AZ game tomorrow. Both of these offenses struggle (esp SD) but looking at the two starting pitchers they are struggling badly. Andrew Cashner has given up 8 ER in 9 IP this year so far and last year had an ERA of 4.34 (not atrocious, but not good either). Shelby Miller was very good last year but has given up 10 ER in 11 IP this year so far. He's struggling badly. Right now it makes sense to me to fade these two guys, especially with a low o/u of 7. At some point one or both may get things figured out but right now to me the play is the over.
Anyway, TL/DR version is that fading struggling pitchers seems to be profitable long term, even if it means betting on sub par offenses against them.
the early-week football shitbets went through, Week 3 part 2 is:
£110 on Man Utd to beat Aston Villa + Juventus to beat Palmero + Dodson/Manny o0.5 + Torres/Namajunas not KO @ 1.68
An embarrassing bet to post. maybe I should post all my bets, it would stop me doing dumb shit like that if I knew I had to show people
Was mentally committed to the idea of using 'safe' mma lines (because I hate betting on football), still couldn't get good odds, added another football one anyway...
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Wish I didn't fuck up my BR during the first leg of the CL. Ive been waiting for a game like Madrid/Getafe, a -450 that's 99% gonna win, so I can dump enough to win like 2 or 300..
I didn't bet as much as last season so one stupid live bet undid a whole month of work for me.. Sucks. Only myself to blame tho
I didn't bet as much as last season so one stupid live bet undid a whole month of work for me.. Sucks. Only myself to blame tho
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e-sport treated me well today small brag post.. sorry
https://gyazo.com/5de0c940797ee6cbc82e8a547b58de09
https://gyazo.com/337b7c97ef826346a80de3ef6b8f4a04
small brag post.. sorry https://gyazo.com/5de0c940797ee6cbc82e8a547b58de09
https://gyazo.com/337b7c97ef826346a80de3ef6b8f4a04
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SHARKEY!!!!!!!!!!!
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An 11/1 winner with the exacta to go with it. Love it.
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you are the fucking man. Thank you as always. what a call, man. Hell of a close there.
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Any time. Now if we can only figure out the giant mess that is going to be this year's Derby.
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going with 1u nadal 2-0 -120 and 1u nadal -4 -115. square, perhaps, but yea. his form was great after the first set against murray. monfils has never made it at this level, i think nadal might smack him.
even tho this is effectively a 2u play, i'm not as confident as i normally am with 2u. prolly just doing a lil extra cause it's the finals and a few weeks off from tennis till next big tourney in may.
even tho this is effectively a 2u play, i'm not as confident as i normally am with 2u. prolly just doing a lil extra cause it's the finals and a few weeks off from tennis till next big tourney in may.
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Hit my only posted MLB bet yesterday of AZ/SD over 7 (also hit Cubs -1.5 and should have posted it sorry if anyone actually reads my picks here--Arrieta is ridiculous at home and -125 was easy $ to lay the 1.5). Solidly in the black ytd, 2 plays today so far I like. One that I like A LOT.
MLB
First the game I like but only for 1u. Wash -132 vs Phil. Gio Gonzalez looked very sharp in his first outing, not nibbling so much and trusting his stuff (and his defense). I think this is gonna be a bounce back year for him (not that he was awful last year, just wasn't as good as in prior seasons). Charlie Morton looked good in his last start for Philly too, but it was against the Padres who have one of the worst offenses in baseball. In his first start he was shelled and his track record says he's a middle of the rotation guy at best. And Washington just has such a better lineup and overall team that -132 looks cheap to me.
Okay the line that I'm hitting for 2.5u (big bet early in the season for me) is Mil/Pit over 7.5. I don't get this line. Yeah the Brewers lineup isn't that good and PNC Park can hold down home run production some, but the pitching matchup doesn't justify this low a total imo. Brewers starter Davies was okay in limited time last year for the Brewers, but he faced Pittsburgh's solid lineup twice last year and was shelled. He doesn't have electric stuff, doesn't miss many bats, and is really a true back of the rotation pitcher at this point. Pirates starter Nicasio has never shown the ability to consistently get big league hitters out. His 3 year average shows an ERA of 4.96 and a whip of 1.48. Yes, some of that can be explained by pitching most of that time at Coors Field where hitters thrive and pitchers die, but only partly. His control isn't very good, he pitches from behind in the count way too often, and he can't throw his secondary pitches for strikes when he needs to. Pitt has gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games too. If either of these starters has a bad day this over should hit, and history says at least one of them will.
MLB
First the game I like but only for 1u. Wash -132 vs Phil. Gio Gonzalez looked very sharp in his first outing, not nibbling so much and trusting his stuff (and his defense). I think this is gonna be a bounce back year for him (not that he was awful last year, just wasn't as good as in prior seasons). Charlie Morton looked good in his last start for Philly too, but it was against the Padres who have one of the worst offenses in baseball. In his first start he was shelled and his track record says he's a middle of the rotation guy at best. And Washington just has such a better lineup and overall team that -132 looks cheap to me.
Okay the line that I'm hitting for 2.5u (big bet early in the season for me) is Mil/Pit over 7.5. I don't get this line. Yeah the Brewers lineup isn't that good and PNC Park can hold down home run production some, but the pitching matchup doesn't justify this low a total imo. Brewers starter Davies was okay in limited time last year for the Brewers, but he faced Pittsburgh's solid lineup twice last year and was shelled. He doesn't have electric stuff, doesn't miss many bats, and is really a true back of the rotation pitcher at this point. Pirates starter Nicasio has never shown the ability to consistently get big league hitters out. His 3 year average shows an ERA of 4.96 and a whip of 1.48. Yes, some of that can be explained by pitching most of that time at Coors Field where hitters thrive and pitchers die, but only partly. His control isn't very good, he pitches from behind in the count way too often, and he can't throw his secondary pitches for strikes when he needs to. Pitt has gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games too. If either of these starters has a bad day this over should hit, and history says at least one of them will.
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