New York GOP/ Democratic Primaries

Who wins New York (chose one for each race)

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    34
  • Poll closed .
Clippy

Clippy

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@plutonium
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I'm concerned about this one cause it's Trump's home turf, he done a lot for New York and I think they love him. He got an endorsement from Rudy Julianny I don't want him to get any closer to the nomination and there's 95 delegates up for grabs here.

What do you guys think?


Mod Note:
Changed to have both parties in poll/topic
 
Last edited by a moderator:
It doesn't matter - neither have any real chance of winning the general election.
 
kinda misleading since it is proportional. Trump obviously should get more as its his home turf and Cruz talked a ot of shit about New York
 
DevilsLettuce said:
It doesn't matter - neither have any real chance of winning the general election.
Click to expand...

I feel the same, but I don't want Trump to even get to the finals, let alone the semi finals
 
Clippy said:
I feel the same, but I don't want Trump to even get to the finals, let alone the semi finals
Click to expand...
Just don't forget - This year we get to witness the historical implosion of the Republican Party.

Drumpf Bless.
 
Trump will win big. Cruz probably finishes third behind Kasich even. Of the 95 delegates, Trump will get 85 or more, Kasich getting the others.
 
The "New York values" gaffe was Cruz's biggest of his campaign. He may not have won NY either way, but I think it hurt him bad. It was a dumb thing to say.
 
Cmart said:
The "New York values" gaffe was Cruz's biggest of his campaign. He may not have won NY either way, but I think it hurt him bad. It was a dumb thing to say.
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Might have helped him at the time though. But now it's pain. It will haunt him all over the NE as well - not just New York. And he has the Hurricane Sandy Relief bill he blocked to have to face in NJ. And he was also against 9/11 First Responders Bill as well - he never had a chance in NY. But he's going to get blown out there AND Kasich is going to finish second - which is what really will hurt him as he was trying to become the Not-Trump candidate.

Timing is terrible for Cruz as well - if Indiana was after Wisconsin he probably wins there and probably does become the Not-Trump, however with NY and the NE all coming in next Trump will start winning big on delegates and Kasich will come in second a lot of the times if not all the time. This will give second wind to Kasich campaign - not enough to make up any delegates per se as it's mostly Winner Takes All, but just in the press coverage. This will split the Not-Trump vote, which will allow Trump to win with his 40% as Cruz and Kasich will split the remaining 60% near in half most of the time the rest of the way now.

I still have Trump coming in under the necessary 1237 though. Probably ends up around 1100 give or take a few.
 
7437 said:
kinda misleading since it is proportional. Trump obviously should get more as its his home turf and Cruz talked a ot of shit about New York
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It's proportional but each district has a 50% trigger to win all three votes. Trump is polling over 50% and I think pretty much all the analysts have him picking up 75+ delegates, and possibly even more than 90% of the delegates. He may lose a couple more rural districts but it's going to be a slaughter.
 
Changing this to both party's along with the poll. No need to make a democratic one also over one state.
 
On Dem side Hillary will win by 8-10 - smaller than recent polls, but at this stage any size win is really all she needs. She's in the delegate grind out stage - whereas Sanders needs to win big to make up the current pledged delegate difference. IIRC if Sanders won every remaining contest (including NY) by 22% he'd only tie Hillary in delegate count because all Dem primaries are proportional.
 
ShoelessRye said:
On Dem side Hillary will win by 8-10 - smaller than recent polls, but at this stage any size win is really all she needs. She's in the delegate grind out stage - whereas Sanders needs to win big to make up the current pledged delegate difference. IIRC if Sanders won every remaining contest (including NY) by 22% he'd only tie Hillary in delegate count because all Dem primaries are proportional.
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I've tried explaining this to people and they still say he will win the majority of elected delegates. Everytime I ask to show the scenario, they don't. I even present them with Bernie winning NY 65/35 and CA 60/40 and still losing. He has fallen behind way to far to win the majority of elected delegates.
 
Vermin supreme destroys all
 
Trump winning NY is one of the more clear cut predictions in the primaries.

Hilary will pull out the win for the dems.
 
Funny thing is The Don would have this wrapped off if mathematically eliminated Kasich quit when he was mathematically eliminated.

But Kasich has some grand fantasy of winning the nomination with like 15% of the popular vote and only winning his home state.

What a fucking shitshow.
 
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