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New Stats Challenge Idea That Open Scoring Leads to Bad Third Rounds

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Shak_Fu, Feb 25, 2021.

  1. Shak_Fu Orange Belt

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    Really interesting early stats from this piece (albeit a small sample size).

    Via Anton Tabuena of Bloody Elbow (with statistics provided by The Kansas Atheltic Comission
    https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2021/2/...-show-otherwise-ufc-judging-real-time-scoring

    Here is a visualizer:


    Data:
    They’ve recorded 92 fights with open scoring in Kansas, across 14 events with both LFA (9) and Invicta FC (5). The data was then compared to 72 fights from Invicta, LFA and UFC that didn’t use open scoring. The sample size is still relatively small, especially with the pandemic limiting the amount of shows, but the numbers have been very encouraging."

    Bad Third Rounds?:
    72.4% of fighters (21 out of 29) who were up by at least two points on at least two judges’ scorecards, still went on to win the third round. This number is actually up 10.9%, from the time that they didn’t have open scoring, which was at just 61.5%.

    Third-round finishing rates also increased slightly, going from 13.3% before open scoring, to 14.5% (7 of 48 finishes) after.

    Finishing Rate:
    With open scoring, 47.8% (44) went to a decision, and 52.1% (48) ended with a finish. This finishing rate is up 10.4% from the 41.7% before it was implemented, but the change could also be explained by the increased LFA bouts.

    Comebacks and Late Finishes:
    There’s an increase in finishes outside the first round, after the scores have been revealed. Second round finishes grew from 23.3% before open scoring, to 31.2% (15 of 48 finishes). Third round finishes were roughly the same, just increasing slightly from 13.3% before open scoring, to 14.5% (7 of 48 finishes) after.

    Looking further, fighters who were behind on the scorecards after the first round but came back to get a finish in the second, amounted to just 28.5% of all finishes in the past. With open scoring, that comeback increased to 40% (6 out of 15 finishes).

    Before open scoring, if tied with one round a piece, zero finishes were scored in the third round and all the bouts just went to a decision. With open scoring, finishes—after it’s been revealed that the first two rounds were even—increased to 28.6% (2 out of 7 third round finishes).
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    JohnMangala, JumJum, Kwic and 2 others like this.
  2. Ares Black Asteroid Belt

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    I have watched dozens of fights with open scoring and I really like it. I haven't seen any examples of fighters coasting, in fact the third is usually action packed because the losing fighter knows they need a finish.
     
    Sticko, Kwic, SpiderCrawl and 3 others like this.
  3. RampageFaction Red Belt

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    In before “sample too small” Data denialists.
     
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  4. Le Mercenaire Green Belt

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    I’ve seen open scoring for years and it’s better. stop resisting progress
     
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  5. Kryptt Dead Belt Platinum Member

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    Yup - I am in huge favor of Open Scoring.

    I also like the immediate personal scoring vs judge scoring and others in the PBP.
     
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  6. balkanbomber85 Trollhunter

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    with opening the socrecards before the 3rd round I wonder how long it would last till the first fighter just walks out of the octagon because they feel they got robbed the first two rounds!
     
  7. Hellowhosthat Gold Belt

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    Open scoring is great imo, I've come to really like it.
     
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  8. Shak_Fu Orange Belt

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    They clearly lay out in the article, as did I on this forum, that it's a small sample size -- but I doubt that will stop some people from complaining haha
     
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  9. HockeyBjj Putting on the foil

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    What orgs use open scoring?
     
  10. AmericanMMA Brown Belt

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    This is what I figured it would be like.

    I've never seen a fight w open scoring, but I would figure 3rd rounds would be better for this reason. If it is 1-1 guys will go hard knowing if they win the round they win. If it is 2-0, the dude who is down needs a finish and will try whatever it is that needs to be done to get it done, which will likely result in a finish by the winning fighter, but a finish none the less.

    Imagine an epic title fight going into round 5 at 2-2.

    I don't agree that it would be boring because guys would coast. I'd like to see it though. Where are you watching the open scoring fights?
     
    Ares Black likes this.
  11. AP_RESURRECTION Steel Belt

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    Harder to push corruption so no go. Make up reasons and change the subject.
     
  12. Kryptt Dead Belt Platinum Member

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    LFA and Invicta...CFFC I believe and a few others.
     
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  13. Sticko Purple Belt

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    Coasting is definitely a thing that happens with closed scoring even when it's not clear the guy is winning

    Imagine GSP-Hendricks or Jones-Reyes except Johnny and Dom know they can't coast

    Even more impressive is this data comes partially from Invicta cards so they are getting plenty of finishes even from all-WMMA cards
     
  14. King in the North Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    I don’t know why it would.

    “Hey did you guys catch the second half? Yeah, it really sucked because everyone knew the score.”
     
  15. Moezao Brown Belt

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    Wait, in 72 fights there was no finish in the third round whatsoever if the fighters were 1-1??
    That's actually a very relevant statistic.
     
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  16. JumJum White Belt

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    Making sense. Once one fighter know that he got the advantage he will just run around the cage and try to be most defensive that possible. This is also true in other sports that the winning team just try to waste time.
     
  17. Herwald Black Belt

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    I'm in favor of open scoring. If I know I'm down 2, I will know not to fuck around and bring it for the 3rd - the heat will be on with no doubts in mind boosted the crowd knowing the score as well. This would actually be awesome.

    The opponent might try and run, but you still see that shit now anyway, when dudes think they're ahead. And conversely, you get guys like Wonderboy who go 4-0 vs Geoff Neal and still show up for the 5th right in the opponent's face.

    So open scoring won't change some guy's nature and sense of pride - neither will it fix goofy judging, but it will make things more honest and straight forward. No more guessing. You're either up or down. Other sports have score boards for a reason. Plus, it makes it more fun for the fans. Can you imagine a packed stadium, fans reacting to someone trying to run away cause he knows he's 2 rounds ahead? The boo'ing would be off the charts, underdog effect for the dude trailing would skyrocket.

    Lastly, at least initially, it would maybe make the judges more aware and less careless if they knew their work was about to be displayed to the masses and the fighters. Accountability could be motivating.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
  18. Sticko Purple Belt

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    Yeah in 72 fights with closed scoring there were no finishes after being tied 1-1. But unfortunately it doesn't say how many times fights were tied 1-1.

    2 times in 92 fights with open scoring someone got a finish after being tied 1-1, but again I'm not sure how many times it was tied 1-1.
     
  19. faustian BRUTAL 5-4 Platinum Member

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    The idea that a fighter would coast in a 3rd or 5th round is kinda ridiculous. It’s hard to coast when your opponent KNOWS FOR A FACT that they need a finish
     
  20. Ares Black Asteroid Belt

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    They use it in Kansas, so Invicta fights, and a few LFA cards have used it recently too.
     

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