Elections New poll shows Biden falling badly, three-way tie for Democratic lead

[irish_thug]

Bernie's gonna win, Bernie's gonna win.

I hope you are right. It's the race I wanted in 2016.

With a dash of Jesse Ventura as an independent.

 

[xcvbn]

Warren 49, Bernie 49, Biden 2.

Not joking. He isn't trying to brand himself as a populist, and I think that makes him DOA.

Have you heard Biden speak lately? His brand seems to actually be DOA

 

[Joe]

Warren has a better chance of convincing the old timers that she can win more than bernie

 

[Trotsky]

Exactly what are your goals? At the moment it seems to be to push centrist propaganda.

Electorally? To get Sanders elected. Politically? That's more complicated. I would term my political goal as creating a long-lasting political movement, with the organs of American labor as the engine, that democratically exerts itself over the market, fights for the social and economic interests of everyday people, abolishes the influence of private capital over democratic government, and hedges itself against right-wing backslide with a true and informed internationalist class solidarity.

And what "centrist propaganda" do you think I'm pushing? That Sanders is still trailing Biden by a few points in most polls? That's not centrist propaganda: that's being realistic using available data and not being stupid enough to think that pretending something is true will magically make it so.

You're not far left, kiddo. Your primary ideology is conspiracy theory and you have adopted a rhetorical hard line stance because it allows you to delude yourself into thinking intellectual laziness and thorniness is dedication. You're an example of the socialists have had to tolerate in building a meaningful political coalition.

 

[Amerikuracana]

Biden has no chance to be the nominee...we're a year out. Trump will lose in a landslide a garden hose, it doesn't really matter. Republicans don't even like him.

Republicans not liking him before is why he won.

 

[xcvbn]

hi xcvbn,

Maybe.

Still though, I think centrists are real....I think blue dog Democrats aren’t a figment of my imagination.

I was a little surprised, that’s all.

I do know that there were progressives who sat out in 2016. I’m not imagining this, it happened. Isn’t it possible that the centrists also have the capability of sitting out an election?

-IGIT

They wouldn't do that after blaming Bernie Bros for Hillary's loss

but in all actuality, yeah we could expect establishment centrist Dems to stay home. They're typically older(50+) and well-off financially so they don't really benefit from Bernie, aside from maybe his plan to raise social security, so I can see his appeal being completely lost on them.

As Viva pointed out though, Bernie attracts voters who don't fit into normal metrics/traditional polling data. It's gonna take a lot of effort, but if he can manage 2-4 million votes from them he'll take Trump. You also have to take into account the Dems who voted Trump or refused to vote for Hillary. Neither of which is not an insignificant amount.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

According to vegas odds, warren is the favorite to win the dem candidacy at +190.

Biden is close at +250.

Bernie is +550.

 

[PEB]

The DNC establishment want Harris anyways an they are going to have Warren take a dive for Harris. Warren has no plans of becoming President an Harris will continue down at 5 percent till media can shape her recovery post Tulsi attack. Tulsi not on the stage next debate sets it up for Warren to hammer Sanders over womans rights an spending Harris will get a free ride. DNC will make another promise to Warren if she gets Harris into the White House after the Clinton mess.

 

[xcvbn]

Electorally? To get Sanders elected. Politically? That's more complicated. I would term my political goal as creating a long-lasting political movement, with the organs of American labor as the engine, that democratically exerts itself over the market, fights for the social and economic interests of everyday people, abolishes the influence of private capital over democratic government, and hedges itself against right-wing backslide with a true and informed internationalist class solidarity.

And what "centrist propaganda" do you think I'm pushing? That Sanders is still trailing Biden by a few points in most polls? That's not centrist propaganda: that's being realistic using available data and not being stupid enough to think that pretending something is true will magically make it so.

You're not far left, kiddo. Your primary ideology is conspiracy theory and you have adopted a rhetorical hard line stance because it allows you to delude yourself into thinking intellectual laziness and thorniness is dedication. You're an example of the socialists have had to tolerate in building a meaningful political coalition.

Incrementalism is not progressivism. That's your often made mistake. You entertain centrism and corporate power structures, giving them credibility. That's a problem to progressives. Perhaps the biggest problem and yet time and time again that's where you are- entertaining the status quo.

 

[franklinstower]

New poll shows Biden falling badly, three-way tie for Democratic lead


Joe Biden's support in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is slipping, according to a new survey from Monmouth University Poll that shows the former vice president dropping below 20 percent.

The survey showed Biden with support from 19 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters nationally, a double-digit decline from Monmouth's most recent poll in June when he led the pack with 32 percent.

Now, the dynamics have changed, according to the Monmouth survey. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the primary field's top progressive candidates, are each at 20 percent, putting them in a statistical tie with Biden and indicating a tightening three-way race.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/458833-new-poll-shows-biden-falling-badly-three-way-tie-for-democratic-lead?amp







Poor Joe Biden. He should have listened to Obama.

Bernie's gonna win, Bernie's gonna win.

Today, indeed, was a good day.

Discuss.......

This is really good news Viva. I find myself to be really uneasy lately for some reason and not too hopeful about the next election. I don't have any good reasons-- just worries really.

I worry that many centrists who have money will vote Trump instead of Bernie to protect their money and I worry that Trump is more popular than the polls show because people are embarrassed to admit that they like him.

I don't have any data to back this up so its probably bullshit.

 

[waiguoren]

Exactly what are your goals? At the moment it seems to be to push centrist propaganda.

Are you a troll? Trotsky's comment was basically, "Sanders is the best candidate in the field, but we should look at polling averages and not get overconfident."

The only thing he wrote that could conceivably be "centrist propaganda" is the belief in using polls that don't show Sanders leading. Unless you have a valid critique of those other polls I think you're off-base with your criticism.

 

[xcvbn]

Are you a troll? Trotsky's comment was basically, "Sanders is the best candidate in the field, but we should look at polling averages and not get overconfident."

The only thing he wrote that could conceivably be "centrist propaganda" is the belief in using polls that don't show Sanders leading. Unless you have a valid critique of those other polls I think you're off-base with your criticism.

So nice of you to white knight Mr. Trots but I actually don't give a shit about polls. Bernie was polling 20 points down from Hillary while winning primary states. The polls didn't reflect his support until well into March 2016. They're essentially useless at this point in the race.

As far as the centrist bullshit he peddles- for one it's his defense of corporate media. Don't think I need to explain further.

 

[waiguoren]

So nice of you to white knight Mr. Trots but I actually don't give a shit about polls. Bernie was polling 20 points down from Hillary while winning primary states. The polls didn't reflect his support until well into March 2016. They're essentially useless at this point in the race.

As far as the centrist bullshit he peddles- for one it's his defense of corporate media. Don't think I need to explain further.

It's not personal. I didn't see anything in Trotsky's post that could be construed reasonably as "centrist propaganda". Yes some state polling (e.g., Michigan) was far off in the 2016 Democratic primary. The national polling was quite accurate though or even underestimated Clinton's support.

 

[IGIT]

hi xcvbn,

but in all actuality, yeah we could expect establishment centrist Dems to stay home. They're typically older(50+) and well-off financially so they don't really benefit from Bernie, aside from maybe his plan to raise social security, so I can see his appeal being completely lost on them.

if Mr. Sanders or Mrs. Warren win the primary and moderate Democrats stay home....well...that's worrisome. at least to me it is.

As Viva pointed out though, Bernie attracts voters who don't fit into normal metrics/traditional polling data. It's gonna take a lot of effort, but if he can manage 2-4 million votes from them he'll take Trump. You also have to take into account the Dems who voted Trump or refused to vote for Hillary. Neither of which is not an insignificant amount.

if Mr. Sanders or Mrs. Warren win the primary, i hope Viva is right. in 2016, those voters who don't fit into the normal metrics of traditional polling data didn't put Mr. Sanders over the top in his contest with Mrs. Clinton (and yes, no thanks to the DNC, i agree) - i hope they show up in the general.

- IGIT

 

[franklinstower]

hi xcvbn,



if Mr. Sanders or Mrs. Warren win the primary and moderate Democrats stay home....well...that's worrisome. at least to me it is.



if Mr. Sanders or Mrs. Warren win the primary, i hope Viva is right. in 2016, those voters who don't fit into the normal metrics of traditional polling data didn't put Mr. Sanders over the top in his contest with Mrs. Clinton (and yes, no thanks to the DNC, i agree) - i hope they show up in the general.

- IGIT

IGIT


Who is your preferred candidate on the left assuming you are on the left?

 

[IGIT]

IGIT


Who is your preferred candidate on the left assuming you are on the left?

heya franklinstower,

Mrs. Warren.

i'll admit, though, that i'm one of those pragmatic weenies that want to win also. if Mr. Biden takes the primary, i'm not going to be one those angry folks who throws up his hands and walks away from the table.

i'll vote for Mr. Biden. a Democrat isn't going to nominate folks that i find abhorrent to the SCOTUS. a democrat is not going to lower taxes on the ubberwealthy. a democrat is not going to spin tales about how AGW is some hoax. if that's all i can get, i'll take it.

- IGIT

 

[franklinstower]

heya franklinstower,

Mrs. Warren.

i'll admit, though, that i'm one of those pragmatic weenies that want to win also. if Mr. Biden takes the primary, i'm not going to be one those angry folks who throws up his hands and walks away from the table.

i'll vote for Mr. Biden. a Democrat isn't going to nominate folks that i find abhorrent to the SCOTUS. a democrat is not going to lower taxes on the ubberwealthy. a democrat is not going to spin tales about how AGW is some hoax. if that's all i can get, i'll take it.

- IGIT

Fair enough. Does the same go for Bernie? Could you happily vote for Bernie in the general?

Ill vote for any dem over Trump obviously.

 

[Trotsky]

Incrementalism is not progressivism. That's your often made mistake. You entertain centrism and corporate power structures, giving them credibility. That's a problem to progressives. Perhaps the biggest problem and yet time and time again that's where you are- entertaining the status quo.

None of that actually said anything.

You're mad that I'm tempering expectations of an imminent Sanders victory/Biden defeat based on a single outlier poll. Apparently you would prefer I jump for joy, pronounce Biden dead, and start compiling my Bernie Nomination playlist. That doesn't make you more progressive or more extreme or even less incrementalist. It makes you hysterical. This is, again, just a matter of reduction for you: as I said, passing off intellectual laziness as dedication. You can't point to where you, as opposed to I, undermine economic power or present a coherent method for doing so.

What's pretty ironic is the fact that, despite you obviously not having a working knowledge of leftist ideology or history, you're committing the same type of ham-handed arguments to virtue that the Bolsheviks made against the Mensheviks and left communists, and that allowed right-wing structures of authority to take hold in the USSR: insisting that positions that you cannot defend reasonably are valid by way of their ideological sincerity and that persons wishing to use reason are only doing so out of insincerity. You can't disagree with the counter-positions, so you throw out vague accusations of aligning or sympathizing with "corporate power." The end result of this is most often failure as there's only so much a movement can grow when people are being shouted to believe nonsense and are being told by reactionaries that they aren't far left enough. The best case scenario for success of such a position is, pretty obviously, Stalinism: an amorphous cloud of internal contradictions insisted upon merely because of their existence and allowed to persist because of the suppression of debate. 2 + 2 = 5.

 

[ObamaPhoneLady]

The sad thing is Tulsi could actually win. Dems shooting themselves in the foot again.

 

[IGIT]

Fair enough. Does the same go for Bernie? Could you happily vote for Bernie in the general?

Ill vote for any dem over Trump obviously.

hi again franklinstower,

of course. i'd vote for Mr. Sanders seven days a week and twice on Sunday if he takes the primary. no problemo.

i am not sure moderate Democrats feel the same way. like i've said earlier in this thread, that bothers me and it worries me.

- IGIT