Never really followed politics... question

[TheGumby]

I hear everyone talk about Trump this and Trump that. How he is going to win. Yet everywhere I read online has him losing as of now? One site had him at a 24% chance to win the election? Yet everywhere else people tend to state matter of fact like that he will win? It all really confuses me. Just wanted yalls take.

 

[ehtheist]

This is a horrible place to ask a question about politics.

 

[ripskater]

Nobody knows who will win. At this point either candidate could win.

 

[VivaRevolution]

I hear everyone talk about Trump this and Trump that. How he is going to win. Yet everywhere I read online has him losing as of now? One site had him at a 24% chance to win the election? Yet everywhere else people tend to state matter of fact like that he will win? It all really confuses me. Just wanted yalls take.

Clinton has a minor lead, I suspect you will see about 40% support for Clinton, 40% support for Trump, and 20% support for 3rd party candidates.

Don't listen to the talking heads in a box AKA the media. Bunch of know nothing, over paid idiots, who have been wrong this entire election.

I have a feeling the debates will decide this election.

 

[TheGumby]

Just trying to understand it all.

 

[TheGumby]

HendoRuaGOAT, post: 119227417, member: 498641"]Clinton has a minor lead, I suspect you will see about 40% support for Clinton, 40% support for Trump, and 20% support for 3rd party candidates.

Don't listen to the talking heads in a box AKA the media. Bunch of know nothing, over paid idiots, who have been wrong this entire election.

I have a feeling the debates will decide this election.

When do the debates happen?

 

[Fawlty]

Trump is running a populist campaign, appealing to people who feel politically disenfranchised. He is cashing in on a wide range of anxieties and has turned that into so much popular support that the republican party has essentially been forced to allow him as their nominee, because if they didn't, the party would lose a lot of power. He is mostly aligned with the right on immigration and taxes, and on most other issues his range of beliefs is everywhere from moderate liberal to extremely right wing.

Campaigns like Trump's are hard to gauge, but it does appear that he will be competitive in November. A 24% chance at victory can translate into a very tight race, depending the distribution of his support. He has alienated many minorities and depressed the republican establishment a bit, but he has also energized a lot of poor white people and a reasonable number of independents. As always, the swing states are going to be incredibly important, but this is an area where Trump has so far suffered.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

Trump will win, unless he doesn't, in which case the other guy wins, but she's a lady (not a tramp) and won't look good in a suit and tie. In which case, pantsuits, and she still doesn't look "good", per se, but she'll have to do, unless she doesn't, in which case there'll be buyer's remorse, but Trump is still the worst option that many are choosing anyways, because she's a chick and he needs to show us his long form birth thingy, and that's disgusting.

So there you are: politics a nutshell.

 

[UpaLoompa]

Trump is running a populist campaign, appealing to people who feel politically disenfranchised. He is cashing in on a wide range of anxieties and has turned that into so much popular support that the republican party has essentially been forced to allow him as their nominee, because if they didn't, the party would lose a lot of power. He is mostly aligned with the right on immigration and taxes, and on most other issues his range of beliefs is everywhere from moderate liberal to extremely right wing.

Campaigns like Trump's are hard to gauge, but it does appear that he will be competitive in November. A 24% chance at victory can translate into a very tight race, depending the distribution of his support. He has alienated many minorities and depressed the republican establishment a bit, but he has also energized a lot of poor white people and a reasonable number of independents. As always, the swing states are going to be incredibly important, but this is an area where Trump has so far suffered.

Very good post.

Ignoring the uncertainty attributable to being a populist candidate, the popular vote will probably end up similar to the 2004 election but the electoral map favors democrats.

 

[VivaRevolution]

When do the debates happen?

Sept 26th I believe.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

By the way, I'm also in the running as the candidate for the Extraordinarily Stoned Party.
I'll get... stuff... done... sometime, whenever

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

current odds makers have it at 2-1 clinton which is a pretty significant odds increase in Trumps favor in just a few short weeks.

I would suggest that is due to the convention -- but we'll get a better picture in Aug.

Trump has rallied a new fervor among nationalistic voters and has portrayed himself as the anti establishment candidate - this has translated to record breaking turnout in republican primary voting. As far as emotional based support, Trump is rallying significant support among the right and independents. He is also, bringing around the religious right which may see him as a NY liberal -- but really, they are going to vote right no matter what.

This election has seen a rise -- a very yuge rise -- in the anyone but the other person voting mantra. Clinton and Trump are seen as the two least favourable candidates running for POTUS, ever; and we are seeing voters base their support on not on their candidate but rather, against the other candidate.

Basically -- the one thing to always keep in mind is that the American system, anyone who wins the democratic or republican nomination has a legitimate shot to win the GE

 

[UpaLoompa]

current odds makers have it at 2-1 clinton which is a pretty significant odds increase in Trumps favor in just a few short weeks.

I would suggest that is due to the convention -- but we'll get a better picture in Aug.

Yeah, he's gotten a decent bump but it predates the convention. I haven't followed the polling closely yet, still early, but off the cuff I'd guess it's partly bitter Bernie supporters and I don't think they'll stick with Trump--he's too far removed from their policy positions.

Trump has rallied a new fervor among nationalistic voters and has portrayed himself as the anti establishment candidate - this has translated to record breaking turnout in republican primary voting.

Yep, angry white voters is what that really means. A big question is going to be minority turn-out.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Yeah, he's gotten a decent bump but it predates the convention. I haven't followed the polling closely yet, still early, but off the cuff I'd guess it's partly bitter Bernie supporters and I don't think they'll stick with Trump--he's too far removed from their policy positions.


Yep, angry white voters is what that really means. A big question is going to be minority turn-out.

Well the odds switched today to 2-1, so i would say the convention is a cause -- considering there was no real massive bump for Trump after Bernie endorsed clinton a few weeks ago. I think the aggregated polling for her was +7 in her favor after the endorsement and 2 weeks later, its now +2.

Could be bitter Bernie bros -- but even if they do not choose Trump, a large portion could go Stein -- which still helps Trump.

 

[5H3RD0G]

Just don't take it seriously because politicians don't either. Our planet is in the infant stages of leadership and development just stay logical while the political banter on with reckless abandon.

 

[UpaLoompa]

Well the odds switched today to 2-1, so i would say the convention is a cause -- considering there was no real massive bump for Trump after Bernie endorsed clinton a few weeks ago. I think the aggregated polling for her was +7 in her favor after the endorsement and 2 weeks later, its now +2.

Fair enough, like I said I haven't been following it too close.
Didn't McCain take a lead after the convention too?

 

[mcdowels]

trump will make america great again

if you vote for hillary, all women will get those disgusting kankles, and no one will be hot anymore

 

[Unknown Pleasures]

I hear everyone talk about Trump this and Trump that. How he is going to win. Yet everywhere I read online has him losing as of now? One site had him at a 24% chance to win the election? Yet everywhere else people tend to state matter of fact like that he will win? It all really confuses me. Just wanted yalls take.

Really all you have to know is that in partisan politics, the intellectual integrity is absolutely lost for the vast majority of commentators / supporters.

Spin doctoring is par for the course, even to the point of sheer idiocy.

If The Don dropped his pants and took a dump on stage tonight, his team would say it was a genius artistic expression of the political system and further supports his credentials toward the Presidency.

So you will never cease to hear people state pure fiction as fact. It's no wonder free masons ban talking about politics, because the topic seems to knock 75 points off the average person's I.Q..

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Fair enough, like I said I haven't been following it too close.
Didn't McCain take a lead after the convention too?

sorry, i dont know if he did or not. It stands reason to believe conventions in the short term will bump a candidate because they get the lions share of coverage for a week -- i made a point to mention that we should see a clearer picture after next week / after the DNC has their convention.

Just wanted to point out to TS that nothing is clear cut at this point and either candidate has a shot...with clinton being the favourite.