Nate won the fight with 3:12 left in the 2nd

[trblesome1]

I felt even watching it live that Nate won right at this time, Conor was busting him up bad landing some good shots and it almost looked like Nate could be fading

Right Nate threw his hands up like what bitch that's it and you could immediately see Conor's whole demeanor change he knew he wasn't putting this guy away. Nate started firing back, smacked Conor in the face about 5 seconds later and it was basically a wrap from there

Nate broke Conor in there, so happy for the guy

If anyone could gif this sequence that would be great as well!

 

[RJK]

I noticed the same but interpreted it differently. McGregor seemed more confident after having success and started baiting around 3:04 with his hands lower, but paid for it with a hard right at the 2:54 mark that really slowed him and changed his expression. That was the turning point for me, but most people (including the commentators) only noticed the combo at the 2:23 point.

I've rewatched that sequence a few times since and for me it confirmed what I saw live.