My UFC on Fox 5 Bets (and others) - Post Yours! (Part 2)

[Oblivian]

Same drill as always. Post bets, discuss bets/matchups, talk shit, etc.

I'm getting this thread up really early since discussion is still going on in the old thread. I like this event a lot from an entertainment perspective as well as a betting perspective. I will also be posting Axs fights and Bellator events in here.

Update in green. Green is win + risk. I bet $185 and walked away with $290.43 for a profit of $105.43 (57%). I was actually down $40+ prior to the UFC event due to Bellator, but I did solid overall on UFC.

Parlays
Condit/GSP starts Round 3 + Bendo/Diaz Decision: $15 to win $14.99 $29.99
Price + Kessler + Sarnavskiy + Diaz/Bendo starts Round 3: $10 to win $7.29 $17.29
Siver + Jorgensen: $10 to win $8.46 $18.46
Federer + Murray + Ward + Klitschko + Povetkin + Price + Bendo: $7.50 to win $12.80 $20.30
Stevenson + Price + Gustafsson via decision: $7.50 to win $21.62 $29.12
Colts + Not MacDonald ITD: $7.50 to win $11.10 $18.60
Field over Tiger Woods + Price + Sarnavskiy + Trout/Cotto starts Round 8: $7.50 to win $7.57 $15.07
Machovsky + Jorgensen: $7.50 to win $5.78 Loss
Machovsky + Siver: $7.50 to win $5 Loss
Price + Klitschko + Froch + Uyenoyama + Thiago Santos (over Prindle) + Gustafsson: $5 to win $9.37 $14.37
Marcos + Stevenson + Price + Klitschko + Froch + Silva/Browne ITD + Bendo: $5 to win $9.32 $14.32
Klitschko + Froch + Obama + Bendo: $5 to win $9.33 $14.33
Field over Westwood + Huck + Bute + Anthony Johnson + Gustafsson: $5 to win $12.79 $17.79
Gurgel + Makovsky + Assuncao/Easton goes distance: $2.50 to win $6.24 Loss
Gus + Not Rory ITD + Bendo/Diaz starts 4 + Trujillo + Jorg + Makovsky + Siver + Cruickshank: $1.25 to win $34.72 Loss

$103.75 to win $176.38 $209.64

Singles
Lyman Good: $17.50 to win $13.48 Loss
Cruikshank: $10 to win $6.67 $16.67
Brown: $7.50 to win $10.88 $18.33
Edwards: $7.50 to win $10.50 $18
Assuncao: $7.50 to win $11.25 $18.75
Hose: $7.50 to win $6.82 Loss
Penn: $5 to win $11.50 Loss
Fischer: $5 to win $15 Loss
Proctor: $5 to win $7.75 Loss
Shamhalaev (cancelled): $5 to win $6.50 $5
Trujillo (cancelled): $2.50 to win $7.25 $2.50
Brown via Decision: $1.25 to win $6 Loss

$81.25 to win $113.60 $79.25

Refunded Push Bets Reinvested (*only add win money)
Siver + Jorgensen: $7.50 to win $6.54 $6.54

Small Hedge (only add loss)
Diaz ITD: $5 to win $16.01 -$5

TOTAL OF $185 TO WIN $289.98 $290.43


TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1009.57 Running Profit = $734.57 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.7%).
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2012: $29 into $2185.19 Total Profit = $2156.19 (Approximate ROI: 20.6%)

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Bets:

Shamwow 17 to win 21

Makovsky/Jorgensen/Siver 21 to win 28

Stephens/Swick 19 to win 26

Gus/Easton 25 to win 26

Not Rory itd/ Benson 20 to win 27

Henry Martinez 17 to win 19

BJ 16 to win 39

BJ itd 6 to win 28

Proctor 13 to win 21


154 to win 235


Lol, wrote all this down in the other thread then saw it was locked. Glad it didn't delete my post.

Don't usually do 3 teamers but I think Makovksy has a relatively quick win over Leone and Siver and Jorgensen I'm very confident in as well. Whoever mentioned the "Not Rory itd" play had a good idea so I added him in with Bendo to get better odds. I really like BJ and his experience edge even though I think Rory's legit. Proctor is a risk but I don't trust Ramsey for some reason. I think Stephens will catch Yves at some point and I'm not as confident in Swick as I was recently but I still think he's the more skilled fighter.

Kept the bets fairly small like I've been doing alot lately, I want some action on every fight and tomorrow should have alot of good ones to sit back and watch. Also have a couple boxing bets. GL boys.

 

[Oblivian]

Finalized below. I plan to play Reynolds over Newell if a line gets up though. I'm in the red right now from Bellator last week, so I don't have high hopes for this weekend!

Parlays
Condit/GSP starts Round 3 + Bendo/Diaz Decision: $15 to win $14.99
Price + Kessler + Sarnavskiy + Diaz/Bendo starts Round 3: $10 to win $7.29
Siver + Jorgensen: $10 to win $8.46
Federer + Murray + Ward + Klitschko + Povetkin + Price + Bendo: $7.50 to win $12.80
Stevenson + Price + Gustafsson via decision: $7.50 to win $21.62
Colts + Not MacDonald ITD: $7.50 to win $11.10
Field over Tiger Woods + Price + Sarnavskiy + Trout/Cotto starts Round 8: $7.50 to win $7.57
Machovsky + Jorgensen: $7.50 to win $5.78
Machovsky + Siver: $7.50 to win $5
Price + Klitschko + Froch + Uyenoyama + Thiago Santos (over Prindle) + Gustafsson: $5 to win $9.37
Marcos + Stevenson + Price + Klitschko + Froch + Silva/Browne ITD + Bendo: $5 to win $9.32
Klitschko + Froch + Obama + Bendo: $5 to win $9.33
Field over Westwood + Huck + Bute + Anthony Johnson + Gustafsson: $5 to win $12.79
Gurgel + Makovsky + Assuncao/Easton goes distance: $2.50 to win $6.24
Gus + Not Rory ITD + Bendo/Diaz starts 4 + Trujillo + Jorg + Makovsky + Siver + Cruickshank: $1.25 to win $34.72

$103.75 to win $176.38

Singles
Lyman Good: $17.50 to win $13.48
Cruikshank: $10 to win $6.67
Brown: $7.50 to win $10.88
Edwards: $7.50 to win $10.50
Assuncao: $7.50 to win $11.25
Hose: $7.50 to win $6.82
Penn: $5 to win $11.50
Fischer: $5 to win $15
Proctor: $5 to win $7.75
Shamhalaev: $5 to win $6.50
Trujillo: $2.50 to win $7.25
Brown via Decision: $1.25 to win $6

$81.25 to win $113.60

TOTAL OF $185 TO WIN $289.98

 

[Oblivian]

Alright - I'm getting off work. Good luck to everyone tonight. I may not be on until right before XFC, if that. Reynolds will be my play over Newell if he isn't favored too high.

 

[van1ty]

200-400 each on

diaz
penn
gus
brown
assuncao
stephens
cruickshank

 

[Achilles]

My wagers:

Nate: 95 to win 120
BJ: 50 to win 115
Gustafsson: 52 to win 25
Phan: 10 to win 25

I don't have access to Props or Parlays. Who do you guys use?

 

[Kaffe]

9 on Jorgensen to win 4 +4
7 on Gus to win 5 +5
7 on Diaz to win 9.6 -7
3 on Assuncao to win 6.24 +6.24
3 on Edwards to win 5.13 +5.13
3 on Brown to win 4.8 +4.8
3 on Cruickshank to win 2.3 +2.3

Props:
20 on Not Rory ITD to win 9.5 +9.5
3 on Gus Dec to win 6.57 +6.57
0.5 on Penn +3.5 to win 0.65 -0.5

Other:
4 on Eye to win 4.6 +4.6


Good luck to all!

 

[Kaffe]

My wagers:

Nate: 95 to win 120
BJ: 50 to win 115
Gustafsson: 52 to win 25
Phan: 10 to win 25

I don't have access to Props or Parlays. Who do you guys use?

5dimes is generally solid for props.

 

[RP3X]

200-400 each on

diaz
penn
gus
brown
assuncao
stephens
cruickshank

Best of luck, this card has some lively underdogs and all it takes is one or 2 to start recouping !

 

[EzFlyer]

---
Bella 83 Risk: 177
Shamhalaev +145: 50 for 72.50
Makovsky: 100 parlay
Gurgel -135: 27 for 20
parlays
100 to win 133.93 on Makovsky -425, Jorgensen -245, & Siver -290 (UFC FOX 5)
---
XFC 21 Risk:
Newell/Reynolds
Hill/Thomas
---
UFC Fox 5 Risk: 1,058
Bendo: 100 parlays // Diaz
Shogun +205: 50 for 102.50 // Gustafsson
R.Mac/Penn: idk, maybe rory
Swick -117: 175 for 150 // Brown
Edwards +160: 50 for 80 // Stephens // DEC: 27 for 20
Easton -198: 197.50 for 100 // Assuncao
Nijem -178: 177.50 for 100 // Proctor // DEC: 21 for 20
Cruickshank -140: 140 for 100 // Martinez
Trujillo +155: 20 for 31 // Levesseur
Siver: 100 parlay // Phan
Jorgensen: 100 parlay // Albert
parlays
100 to win 115.93 on GSP -320 (UFC 154) & Bendo -155
100 to win 133.93 on Makovsky -425(Bella 83), Jorgensen -245, & Siver -290
---

weekend bets.. not done w/ufc, and STILL waiting for reynolds-newell line tonight.

 

[arrelione]

Im small-medium size money wise for mma this weekend even though there are multiple events but I am going to be big on soccer, bigger than in a long time.

If mma doesn't work out I hope soccer saving me.

 

[EzFlyer]

reynolds -305 on bookmaker.

damnitttt. i actually think newell might get bet. this probably means no bet for me though. i wanted reynolds -150 or better

 

[RP3X]

wow come home from work and find out tim means slipped and knocked himself out. There I was thinking of him and Scotty may make sense.

Im gonna avoid cage warriors 50 event with Aaron Wilkinson vs Alan Johnston, while ok returns the issue with Aaron is hes been submitted few times but also dished them out also, I also remembered he got submitted twice more or less the same way back on tuf and Alans got similar submission games so falls into his favour, too much of a coin toss.

Siver
Easton
Gus

for now, will look at how healthy swick is but then again even an unhealthy Swick still is able to win via gravity knockout lol

 

[Oblivian]

No XFC betting for me.

 

[macphee]

BJ +3.5 points is at +130.

That's a steal. He took two rounds from Fitch, he can take a round from Rory.

Edit, totally did that wrong. Still, I think it is a good play. It just isn't as good as I originally thought.

 

[opie]

people picking edwards over stephens: am i missing something?

edwards is a journeyman at the end of his career and stephens is a fringe contender with decent speed and power

yves hasnt done great against anybody with a name in a long time

 

[RP3X]

people picking edwards over stephens: am i missing something?

edwards is a journeyman at the end of his career and stephens is a fringe contender with decent speed and power

yves hasnt done great against anybody with a name in a long time

Perhaps after watching the cowboy its given yves the means to beat him, if he used leg kicks and kept distance and hands up anythings possible also his ground games deadly also.

 

[knoxxelig]

hate all the fights for betting, just awful

 

[myjohnson9]

What is rory not itd?

 

[EzFlyer]

people picking edwards over stephens: am i missing something?

edwards is a journeyman at the end of his career and stephens is a fringe contender with decent speed and power

yves hasnt done great against anybody with a name in a long time

Perhaps after watching the cowboy its given yves the means to beat him, if he used leg kicks and kept distance and hands up anythings possible also his ground games deadly also.

yep. yves is the more diverse striker. great kicks, sets them up well, i don't think stephens has speed edge, either, even though he's a lot younger. i also think yves is the better grappler, tho i don't expect this fight to be much grappling. i give stephens power and chin edge, but yves is more dynamic. i think it's a close fight & i like the price very much.