My Belcher/Okami breakdown

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by JasonRothman, Dec 29, 2012.

  1. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    This is my Belcher/Okami breakdown from an MMA betting perspective. Enjoy.

    Alan Belcher vs. Yushin Okami

    The Odds

    The odds for this fight are about even. Belcher is going for around -110, which computes to him having a 52% chance to win. And Okami is going for around -120 which compute to him having a 55% chance to win.

    My handicap

    I have this at about a 50/50 fight with Belcher having a very slight edge. At best for Belcher he is about a 60% favorite to win. Since the odds are about 50/50, I would need to have Belcher winning this fight around 70% of the time for me to have at least a 20% margin of safety and consider betting on this fight. Since my odds are close to the moneyline odds, I will not be betting on this fight and I recommend that you do not bet on this fight either. There are too many unknowables going into this fight (which I will discuss below) for there to be any value in these moneyline odds.

    Paths to Victory

    Let
     
  2. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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  3. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    Hey guys, I'm new to the forum, but have been going to Sherdog for years.

    Are those links in my post (the ones in fighter's names) something I did or something the forum puts in as ads automatically?

    Thanks,

    Jason
     
  4. MMAbetMASTA

    MMAbetMASTA Purple Belt

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    This fight was a sexy bet if you got the nice + dog openers on belcher...

    Otherwise I agree there is no value as its truly a coin flip imo.

    If you liked Okami tho, his line is about as favorable as its gottten for this match up and hopefully okami backers waited for the good price..
     
  5. MMAbetMASTA

    MMAbetMASTA Purple Belt

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  6. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    Thanks! I'll check out their forum.
     
  7. Kumason

    Kumason MMA freak!

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    Good job on your breakdown and I appreciate your effort!

    I think something often skipped when looking at this fight is Belcher's striking defense standing.It's not very impressive imo he get's hit too much.I was singing the same song about cerrone leading up to the nate diaz fight too much about offense and their great chins allow them to fight this way..that's how their games evolve over the years and that gap stays there.Kind of like nate diaz and his td defense cause he's so good off his back.With the evolution of the sport these small gaps are becoming big holes.

    Okami is a meat and potatoes striker but he's long technical tight and effective.I still give Belcher the edge in striking by a little bit because of his all around striking game but his lack(unless he's worked on it like crazy) of defense makes this much closer.Belcher is still the lethal striker though so even though he won't win every exchange and possibly look at time's like he's losing the standup he can still finish there where I don't think okami will be able to.

    All in all without getting into much detail I lean toward Okami because of his takedown abilities and his style of wrestling is good against belcher who get's taken down more by trips body locks etc as opposed to singles and doubles(if I remember correctly).I did a breakdown of the difference between okami's wrestling and sonnen's wrestling and how okami wouldn't do anything with it vs silva.I wrestled for most of my life so I analyze people's style's in that department without even thinking about it.

    Belcher is still young and improving quick he's arguably on a 7 fight win streak(I think didn't look) and that learning curve with a great camp you never know how he's going to look.I don't think Okami's making the same leaps as Belcher so between that,the finishing ability of belcher and Okami possibly improving at a slow rate(which is like going backwards in this game that moves so fast) I got belcher right there too.I still favor Okami probably 60-40 because of style's but I will be rooting for belcher!
     
  8. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    That's interesting stuff about the wrestling Kumason.

    I run a blog where I write about MMA betting. Not sure if posting a link is allowed, so I'll just say google "betting on mma book" and you'll find it easily.

    If you ever want to guest post about breaking down fights from a wrestling perspective I and I'm sure my readers would be very interested in it.

    I've gotten pretty good at breaking down fights with my paths to victory approach, but it would be nice to get a fresh perspective from a wrestling expert, as I've never wrestled.

    Let me know if you're interested!
     
  9. Kumason

    Kumason MMA freak!

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    I read the breakdown of the prelims and picks I wasn't impressed.I don't fully disagree with them just meh...looked like they didn't really study much or even knew too much detail.I'll check it out soon thanks :)
     
  10. Kumason

    Kumason MMA freak!

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    absolutely message me details :)
     
  11. phoenixikki

    phoenixikki Brown Belt

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    Nice read. Guys like you prove that white belts can make good threads. By the way, I have bet on Okami.
     
  12. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    Good luck! I can't wait for tonight.

    Thanks. I am a long time MMA fan and sherdog visitor.

    I have even been interviewed on Beatdown (see link below) lol! Not bad for a white belt.

    I come on at 56:25.

    http://www.sherdog.com/radio/Beatdown-Miguel-Torres-2837
     
  13. myhumbleopinion**

    myhumbleopinion** Orange Belt

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    This is Belchers fight to lose. Unless Okami comes out blazing and puts on a grappling clinic like dong kim did to paulo thiago theres no way he can deal with Belchers overall game, he's way to solid and a big middleweight aswell
     
  14. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    Posted my breakdown on their forum. I got a nice welcome lol.
     
  15. Kaffe

    Kaffe Brown Belt

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    Very good breakdown Jason! Don't agree with all of it (I believe Okami should be -180ish) but it is awesome when people put in the effort to make a thread read-worthy. Hope to see more of your breakdowns in the future.
     
  16. mattf

    mattf Brown Belt

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    Go Belcher!!
     
  17. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    Thanks Kaffe, will do. I can't wait to see how this fight plays out tonight.
     
  18. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    A little money came in on Okami lately. Belcher is slightly plus now.
     
  19. KeBrWa

    KeBrWa White Belt

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    The narrative of their careers from a fans perspective has nothing to do with who will win this fight.
     
  20. JasonRothman

    JasonRothman White Belt

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    I believe it can sometimes. I believe that where guys are at in terms of their career and motivation levels has a lot to do with predicting how fights will play out.
     

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