JasonRothman
White Belt
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2012
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This is my Belcher/Okami breakdown from an MMA betting perspective. Enjoy.
Alan Belcher vs. Yushin Okami
The Odds
The odds for this fight are about even. Belcher is going for around -110, which computes to him having a 52% chance to win. And Okami is going for around -120 which compute to him having a 55% chance to win.
My handicap
I have this at about a 50/50 fight with Belcher having a very slight edge. At best for Belcher he is about a 60% favorite to win. Since the odds are about 50/50, I would need to have Belcher winning this fight around 70% of the time for me to have at least a 20% margin of safety and consider betting on this fight. Since my odds are close to the moneyline odds, I will not be betting on this fight and I recommend that you do not bet on this fight either. There are too many unknowables going into this fight (which I will discuss below) for there to be any value in these moneyline odds.
Paths to Victory
Let
Alan Belcher vs. Yushin Okami
The Odds
The odds for this fight are about even. Belcher is going for around -110, which computes to him having a 52% chance to win. And Okami is going for around -120 which compute to him having a 55% chance to win.
My handicap
I have this at about a 50/50 fight with Belcher having a very slight edge. At best for Belcher he is about a 60% favorite to win. Since the odds are about 50/50, I would need to have Belcher winning this fight around 70% of the time for me to have at least a 20% margin of safety and consider betting on this fight. Since my odds are close to the moneyline odds, I will not be betting on this fight and I recommend that you do not bet on this fight either. There are too many unknowables going into this fight (which I will discuss below) for there to be any value in these moneyline odds.
Paths to Victory
Let