I think Vargas can surprise us, he's looked subpar in his last few but he's got good enough boxing chops and mobility that he can beat Munguia in a spoiler. I'm not sold on Munguia's power; he has to telegraph and wing his shots to hurt guys, in his last couple of fights he hasn't been allowed to wind up like he usually does and unsurprisingly got taken the distance both times by less than mediocre opposition. Once you get past the power he really has nothing else to fall back on. Add that to the fact that calling his ring IQ dogshit would be considered generous and I think he's got a recipe for losing his 0.
Jessie has always been at best a B/B+ level guy, but Munguia is just a big C+ level fighter with retard strength. IMO Jessie's amateur pedigree should shine through here.