Let me preface by saying im sure u get thousands of these emails a week, but i can tell u how to be way more effective in your ufc betting (ufc only u know way more than me in other sports)..its the best sport to bet cause it has way less variables than other team sports , its just 1 guy against 1 guy and the oddsmakers arent as good as the guys that do the major 4 sports, its still in its betting infancy
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> I will never rip or criticize a man with the cajones to bet a 1 million dollars on anything and post the evidence of it. Much respect to you sir on that.
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> However, I was very surprised to read that you bet miesha as a -200 or more favorite and on top of that; see many pics of you and Miesha. I know it s easy to say this after the fact but it seems you made a wager based on emotion, u know her and respect her confidence and also the she was a previous breadwinner for you betting wise maybe influenced u negatively in my opinion..If you would have had a value assigned betting system for the ufc, such as one I have, you would have seen the value was on Amanda not Miesha. I was shocked u bet on miesha as a fav since u saw the value in bisping. holm vs rousey and miesha against holm
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> i went 24-6 this fight week (3 of those losses r nelson, m baghadi, j moraga were very debatable split dec losses, should have been at least 26-4 with better judging) this fight week on my pics which included Amanda over miehsa and e alvarez winning the title. i used a 30 point system, and i have a memory like yours with baseball players/stats except mine is for mma fighters. i ve seen every ufc since ufc 1 and know almost every fighters skill sets , strengths and weaknesses.
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ill give breakdowns of any future ufc fights to prove my methods and make u a believer if you actually read this. i know u are already wildly successful and dont need me or anyone for betting; but i know i could make u even way more profitable with ufc..i pick 75 -85 % consistently since i made a system and left out emotion or confirmation bias out of my picking.. i have been killing mma for yrs but im not rich like u as a result of chasing losses, too many leg longshot parlays, and giving back too much on other sports i shouldnt be betting, specifically soccer , which im done betting now..I have now begun fix these issues and take this seriously/professionally and will be moving to vegas hopefully soon so i can get paid on spot rather than wait for intenet checks in portions...
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> now to the point, this is what i sent my friends via text who wanted my miehsa nunes fight take/who i was betting
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> why amanda was my pick
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> very shorthanded version of my system
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> physical profile
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> amanda advantages : size, power, reach, speed, youth
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> miesha: chin/ability to absorb punishment, cardio
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> amanda wins 5-2
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> eyeball test of techinical advantages/abilities
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> amanda advantages very significant advantage in boxing, muy tai , stand up in general and slight advantage in pure gi jiu jitsu grappling
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> miesha advantages slight advantage in takedown ability /wrestling and advantage in scrambling ability
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> amanda wins 3-2... basically amanda has a big big adv standing and miesha has a slight adv on the ground when it comes to wrestling and scrambling but the sub ability is about even maybe even amanda better in pure jiu jitsu
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> verified stat breakdown
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> nunes advantages : strikes landed per minute, striking accuracy, takedowns defended, takedowns landed
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> miesha advantages : striking defense, sub attempts
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> amanda wins 4-2
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> common opponents
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> sara mccann
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> miesha beat her by majority dec in a fight she was losing until a third rd rally
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> amanda beat the shit out of her bellpost to bellpost in the 1st rd and subbed her in the first via choke
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> when you break the fight down this way/the way i do(this was a very shortended version of my analysis for the fight) the value seems obvious, especially with amanda being a 2 to 1 dog .. by my analysis the odds should have been more like -200 amanda plus 150 tate, put public hype/bets sway the line not good analysis/stats which is i love betting mma (the nfl lines have way more stat analysis put into them and therefore are better and tighter)
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> the only way i saw miesha winning was if amanda gassed as she has in other fights
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> but u cant expect someone to underperform or not address their biggest controllable flaw in the biggest fight of their career ; u have to bet assuming amanda going to be the best version of herself since its her first title shot and biggest fight of her career
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> and same with miesha..they are going to be at their best condition for the fight since its for a title and this important to know
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> so everyone picking miesha was kind of using flawed logic that everything will be the same with both fighters...also keep in mind miesha got lucky to beat holly that late in a fight she was losing until the very end...her line value was inflated cause of it..you know a fighter or a sports team is never as good their best or most notable fight and never as bad as their worst...miesha s line was inflated cause of her last performance and the fact she beat the woman for the title who beat the god ronda and people then justify it
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> i only wish i had 1 million at my disposal like you cause i would have dropped it on amanda no hesitation which is why i wish i could work with someone like who has money and more importantly, balls...
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> i have balls but not near the funds to achieve what u have and can continue to which is why im sending this flyer attempt to contact you ...i know its a wing on prayer but why not try
Economy Tariffs for one, Tariffs for all! (doubled tariffs on China)
