News Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett - UFC 314 - 5 Rds

[mkess101]

Charles is a bad ass, but because of what he was when he was on his run as champ. Since losing to Islam in 2022, he's beat Dariush and Chandler. I personally think at age 35 with all his mileage he isn't the same as he used to be. Paddy is looking to prove he's not a hype push from UFC. Paddy does have some power though, wouldn't be shocked.

Charles also essentially fought Arman evenly, let's not gloss over that. It's a loss...but a razor thin loss to an absolute beast in his prime.

I wish someone would point out what exactly Paddy has done to make him the favorite here. It's not that he "can't" win. Of course he can. But how about actually look at his performances. Lost to Gordon and was utterly bailed out in a joke of a decision. Beat the ghost of Tony. Got a very nice sub win when Green absurdly decided to be a wrestler despite having a huge striking edge and dove into a triangle.

I wish someone would show me what I've missed about Paddy so far that has people thinking he's on this crazy upward trajectory. It's not that he can't maybe get there...but he's done little to nothing so far that shows he's destined for it.

 

[Sage NorthGOAT]

What a random fight. I like it.

 

[Ladron4sherdog]

Charles is a bad ass, but because of what he was when he was on his run as champ. Since losing to Islam in 2022, he's beat Dariush and Chandler. I personally think at age 35 with all his mileage he isn't the same as he used to be. Paddy is looking to prove he's not a hype push from UFC. Paddy does have some power though, wouldn't be shocked.

I'm just not entirely sure Paddy is on the same level as an Arman or an Islam. Those guys (Islam by a clear margin) are a step above Charles. But we don't really know how good Paddy is.

Beating Chandler will help his case.

 

[Sweater of AV]

Lol at Candler settling for dollar store McRunner.

It's a shame that Mike went from a savage in Bellator to this shit.

 

[svmr_db]

 

[Tweak896]

Charles also essentially fought Arman evenly, let's not gloss over that. It's a loss...but a razor thin loss to an absolute beast in his prime.

I wish someone would point out what exactly Paddy has done to make him the favorite here. It's not that he "can't" win. Of course he can. But how about actually look at his performances. Lost to Gordon and was utterly bailed out in a joke of a decision. Beat the ghost of Tony. Got a very nice sub win when Green absurdly decided to be a wrestler despite having a huge striking edge and dove into a triangle.

I wish someone would show me what I've missed about Paddy so far that has people thinking he's on this crazy upward trajectory. It's not that he can't maybe get there...but he's done little to nothing so far that shows he's destined for it.

I mean his striking isn't amazing but it's decent and he's got power and cardio. I'd imagine he has a better gas tank than these aging guys. Not only that I think Olivera exposed Chandler's wrestling isn't what it used to be. I'd guess Paddy takes down Chandler and does what he did with Tony. Even standing I wouldn't be surprised if his better reaction times he can take him out standing if needed or atleast out work.

I guess my whole thing with Paddy is not only is he going to get favorable matchups, but he's a product of timing, like Stipe coming in after all the top HWs are aging out of prime.

I'm just not entirely sure Paddy is on the same level as an Arman or an Islam. Those guys (Islam by a clear margin) are a step above Charles. But we don't really know how good Paddy is.

Beating Chandler will help his case.

Yeah, I think that's the hardest path for Paddy. But all the top guys at LW are close to retirement and can show up as a shell of themselves any fight now. Paddy's path up the LW rankings is pretty gold because of timing. Dariush, Chandler, Gaethje, Poirier, Hooker, and even Olivera. These guys are 35 or older or tons of mileage and still game so far they've showed, but a younger Paddy who is larger and well rounded can edge it out.

 

[mkess101]

I mean his striking isn't amazing but it's decent and he's got power and cardio. I'd imagine he has a better gas tank than these aging guys. Not only that I think Olivera exposed Chandler's wrestling isn't what it used to be. I'd guess Paddy takes down Chandler and does what he did with Tony. Even standing I wouldn't be surprised if his better reaction times he can take him out standing if needed or atleast out work.

I guess my whole thing with Paddy is not only is he going to get favorable matchups, but he's a product of timing, like Stipe coming in after all the top HWs are aging out of prime.


Yeah, I think that's the hardest path for Paddy. But all the top guys at LW are close to retirement and can show up as a shell of themselves any fight now. Paddy's path up the LW rankings is pretty gold because of timing. Dariush, Chandler, Gaethje, Poirier, Hooker, and even Olivera. These guys are 35 or older or tons of mileage and still game so far they've showed, but a younger Paddy who is larger and well rounded can edge it out.

I don't think anyone (or at least I'm not) is arguing that we're getting prime Chandler vs Paddy here. There's a lot of focus on age and absolutely that matters, but imo we haven't seen the massive drop-off with Chandler that I'd need to see in order to think he should be an underdog vs a guy like Paddy. Chandler isn't Tony Ferguson at 38, where it's just obvious that he's washed. Oliveira is the 2nd or 3rd best LW on the planet (and one of the best finishers in MMA history)and Chandler just went 5 rounds with him and even had Charles in some trouble late. That's not a guy where I'm saying "Okay, he's ripe for the picking for a mostly unproven prospect".

Fading Chandler due to age and wear--I get it. Father Time is undefeated. But what have we seen from Paddy that says he's the guy to do it? He lost to Jared Gordon 2 fights ago (IDGAF what the judges said, everyone knows Paddy lost that fight). He was getting outstruck by a completely WASHED Tony Ferguson in rd 3 and needed to get a TD and lay on him and ride the clock out. The sub over Green was slick (Paddy is a slick grappler-that much I'll absolutely give him) but that was Green doing something utterly moronic in shooting a TD.

Paddy isn't the wrestler Charles is, don't fool yourself. Chandler may have fallen off with his wrestling a bit, but expecting Paddy to get to his hips and take him down like he did Tony...unlikely. Tony has never had good TDD and especially once he got old overnight. Charles made himself into a really good MMA wrestler. Paddy hasn't show that AT ALL vs good competition yet.

And where is the evidence of this power and cardio of Paddy? Again, after easily landing on the ghost of Tony for 2 rounds, Paddy couldn't hurt him and then faded a was blocking Tony's punches with his face early in rd 3 until he took Tony down. Can you point out where Paddy has shown this impressive power and cardio? I can't remember seeing it, and I've seen all of his UFC fights.

Now...maybe Paddy makes big strides and looks way better. Maybe Chandler does look old overnight like other guys his age have had happen. But there's no evidence of either so far.

 

[burningspear]

Paddy needs to keep the chin tucked lol but its Chandler, he'll find a way to lose. Paddy sub rd 2.

 

[Tweak896]

I don't think anyone (or at least I'm not) is arguing that we're getting prime Chandler vs Paddy here. There's a lot of focus on age and absolutely that matters, but imo we haven't seen the massive drop-off with Chandler that I'd need to see in order to think he should be an underdog vs a guy like Paddy. Chandler isn't Tony Ferguson at 38, where it's just obvious that he's washed. Oliveira is the 2nd or 3rd best LW on the planet (and one of the best finishers in MMA history)and Chandler just went 5 rounds with him and even had Charles in some trouble late. That's not a guy where I'm saying "Okay, he's ripe for the picking for a mostly unproven prospect".

Fading Chandler due to age and wear--I get it. Father Time is undefeated. But what have we seen from Paddy that says he's the guy to do it? He lost to Jared Gordon 2 fights ago (IDGAF what the judges said, everyone knows Paddy lost that fight). He was getting outstruck by a completely WASHED Tony Ferguson in rd 3 and needed to get a TD and lay on him and ride the clock out. The sub over Green was slick (Paddy is a slick grappler-that much I'll absolutely give him) but that was Green doing something utterly moronic in shooting a TD.

Paddy isn't the wrestler Charles is, don't fool yourself. Chandler may have fallen off with his wrestling a bit, but expecting Paddy to get to his hips and take him down like he did Tony...unlikely. Tony has never had good TDD and especially once he got old overnight. Charles made himself into a really good MMA wrestler. Paddy hasn't show that AT ALL vs good competition yet.

And where is the evidence of this power and cardio of Paddy? Again, after easily landing on the ghost of Tony for 2 rounds, Paddy couldn't hurt him and then faded a was blocking Tony's punches with his face early in rd 3 until he took Tony down. Can you point out where Paddy has shown this impressive power and cardio? I can't remember seeing it, and I've seen all of his UFC fights.

Now...maybe Paddy makes big strides and looks way better. Maybe Chandler does look old overnight like other guys his age have had happen. But there's no evidence of either so far.

That's a good counter point. Maybe I'm underrating Olivera's wrestling at this point and also over stating Chandler's decline that we can extrapolate from his last fight. Also I do want to say I think he lost to Gordon when I watched that fight. However that could've been a bad training camp or off night or something because he's performed differently in all his other fights, so I don't want to rate his whole skillset off of 1 fight. Especially like you said how he potentially has improved.

A counterpoint I would make is that before the kick, Tony looked the most like his old self post Gaethje in the Chandler fight, where Paddy just cut through him. It's not exactly mma math, but using the common opponent I could objectively say Paddy dominated the whole fight more.

Again, I don't mind if Paddy loses and looks like a fool against Chandler, it's pretty funny considering his push and personality. I'm not gonna bet on it with real money, maybe V-Bucks here. But Chandler hasn't KO'd anyone since Tony either, so I don't think he's as dangerous as he uses to be, but that is a guess. I got no real dog in this matchup, but I think Paddy gets the W.

 

[mkess101]

That's a good counter point. Maybe I'm underrating Olivera's wrestling at this point and also over stating Chandler's decline that we can extrapolate from his last fight. Also I do want to say I think he lost to Gordon when I watched that fight. However that could've been a bad training camp or off night or something because he's performed differently in all his other fights, so I don't want to rate his whole skillset off of 1 fight. Especially like you said how he potentially has improved.

A counterpoint I would make is that before the kick, Tony looked the most like his old self post Gaethje in the Chandler fight, where Paddy just cut through him. It's not exactly mma math, but using the common opponent I could objectively say Paddy dominated the whole fight more.

Again, I don't mind if Paddy loses and looks like a fool against Chandler, it's pretty funny considering his push and personality. I'm not gonna bet on it with real money, maybe V-Bucks here. But Chandler hasn't KO'd anyone since Tony either, so I don't think he's as dangerous as he uses to be, but that is a guess. I got no real dog in this matchup, but I think Paddy gets the W.

Remember with Tony too that he had 2 fights after Chandler where he took a good amount of damage and was finished (Green and Nate) before Paddy got him. That might not seem like it's super significant, but for a guy on the decline like Tony was that year and a half and 2 fights matters a lot.

In the end, there's just an absolutely massive difference in level of competition. Look at who each guy has fought. Poirier, Gaethje, Oliveira x2, Hooker...vs Paddy's resume??

It's not that I absolutely KNOW Paddy isn't at the level of a guy like Chandler. I just need to SEE it at least once before I have any sort of buy in.

 

[usernamee]

That's a good counter point. Maybe I'm underrating Olivera's wrestling at this point and also over stating Chandler's decline that we can extrapolate from his last fight. Also I do want to say I think he lost to Gordon when I watched that fight. However that could've been a bad training camp or off night or something because he's performed differently in all his other fights, so I don't want to rate his whole skillset off of 1 fight. Especially like you said how he potentially has improved.

A counterpoint I would make is that before the kick, Tony looked the most like his old self post Gaethje in the Chandler fight, where Paddy just cut through him. It's not exactly mma math, but using the common opponent I could objectively say Paddy dominated the whole fight more.

Again, I don't mind if Paddy loses and looks like a fool against Chandler, it's pretty funny considering his push and personality. I'm not gonna bet on it with real money, maybe V-Bucks here. But Chandler hasn't KO'd anyone since Tony either, so I don't think he's as dangerous as he uses to be, but that is a guess. I got no real dog in this matchup, but I think Paddy gets the W.

I've always been impressed either with Charles wrestling or his grappling strength. Anytime he connects his hands he seem to just muscle people down easily. Lift them up, put them down. He's really freaking good at taking people down actually.

 

[mkess101]

I've always been impressed either with Charles wrestling or his grappling strength. Anytime he connects his hands he seem to just muscle people down easily. Lift them up, put them down. He's really freaking good at taking people down actually.

One of the worst mistakes I've seen in all my years following the sport was Oliveira killing himself to make 145 all those years. He was always skeletal and depleted. Now you look at him and he's a big LW and has functional strength and you wonder how good his career would've been had he just fought at 155 the whole time.

 

[Privateeye0]

I think it plays out exactly like Mendes vs McGregor

 

[TITS]

They should make this 6 rounds.

 

[joy2day]

This was a good choice for a step up in competition for Paddy. If he can't win this, it's doubtful he has the potential to be elite. He's had enough time at this point where he should be able to show us something.

 

[Tweak896]

Remember with Tony too that he had 2 fights after Chandler where he took a good amount of damage and was finished (Green and Nate) before Paddy got him. That might not seem like it's super significant, but for a guy on the decline like Tony was that year and a half and 2 fights matters a lot.

In the end, there's just an absolutely massive difference in level of competition. Look at who each guy has fought. Poirier, Gaethje, Oliveira x2, Hooker...vs Paddy's resume??

It's not that I absolutely KNOW Paddy isn't at the level of a guy like Chandler. I just need to SEE it at least once before I have any sort of buy in.

Good point about the accumulation of damage. He also seemed kind of checked out the more he lost each fight and probably not as motivated as much of a show he'd put on leading up to the fights.

Yeah, no matter what the result is we get to see if Paddy runs for the top LWs or stays on UK cards squashing lower ranked guys. His resume is light, but not his fault UFC used him to carry the UK cards with favorable fights. I don't think he'll be able to
submit any of the top LWs, which was his best finishing skill.

I've always been impressed either with Charles wrestling or his grappling strength. Anytime he connects his hands he seem to just muscle people down easily. Lift them up, put them down. He's really freaking good at taking people down actually.

Interesting, I always remembered him grappled by Felder so my mind has that image stuck. Maybe I need to rewatch older fights of his again. The biggest surprise of the Chandler fight to me was how easy he got him down.

 

[Bradillac]

I’ll be incredibly surprised if Paddy manages to win this. They both have cardio issues, but Chandler should have enough gas to knock Paddy out in the later rounds. Chandler can fight while being tired way better than Paddy can.

I like Paddy, but I’m not sure what happened to make people think he should be a favourite over Chandler. Chandler is a legit top 5 LW, and Paddy has not proven to be on that level yet. His fight against Gordon is still a major red flag to me.