Loma vs Casa

[cottagecheesefan]

Lomachenko vs Casamayor at 130 or 135, who you got? Prime vs prime of course

I think I got Casamayor via late stoppage. I think he is too rough and has deceptive power. I think Loma tries to move around too much and Casa would catch him while Loma doing that matrix stuff. Possibly step on Loma's foot to set up a headbutt and then steam roll him

 

[Mr2urbo]

Hard one to pick, a 100% focused Casamayor would give Loma problems and resort to dirty tactics, similar to Salido only Casa had many tricks up his sleeve, his way of changing the level up of a fight wasn’t pretty but he did it but Loma is too crafty to fall for Casa’s tricks, Casamayor on the same hand wouldn’t buckle under pressure from Loma’s volume either, complete chess match if you ask me.

 

[Seano]

Casamayor was inconsistent but at his best I think he had more tools than Lomachenko. Good matchup.

 

[Seano]

Hard one to pick, a 100% focused Casamayor would give Loma problems and resort to dirty tactics, similar to Salido only Casa had many tricks up his sleeve, his way of changing the level up of a fight wasn’t pretty but he did it but Loma is too crafty to fall for Casa’s tricks, Casamayor on the same hand wouldn’t buckle under pressure from Loma’s volume either, complete chess match if you ask me.

Casamayor was one of the few dirty fighters I actually liked. He was almost technical with his headbutts.

 

[XThe GreatestX]

interesting fight. Casa as it has been mentioned was pretty sneaky with the dirty stuff, while at the same time being very technically sound.

 

[JayE]

As mentioned, Casamayor could be inconsistent, but he would be way better than any LW Lomachenko has fought so far. He's not necessarily the toughest style matchup for Lomachenko (I'd clearly favour a guy like Castillo over Lomachenko because of the style clash). It's a bit of a strange style clash, actually. Tough fight to break down.

 

[Seano]

As mentioned, Casamayor could be inconsistent, but he would be way better than any LW Lomachenko has fought so far. He's not necessarily the toughest style matchup for Lomachenko (I'd clearly favour a guy like Castillo over Lomachenko because of the style clash). It's a bit of a strange style clash, actually. Tough fight to break down.

I actually think its a pretty bad style matchup for Lomachenko. Casamayor was really good at clinching guys coming in to stop their aggression, while busting their face open with a sneaky headbutt at the same time. He was slick with good timing and deceptive power. He's not a guy who is going to be frozen and confused by some quick hands. I think prime Casamayor is several levels beyond anyone Lomachenko has been in there with.He wasn't just a technically sound fighter with great amateur base but he was also gritty and tough when he had to be. Too many tools for Lomachenko.

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

Casamayor would only have a puncher's chance at 130 or 135. He'd risk getting DQ'ed if he tried to pull a Salido on this version. Once Lomachenko starts going through the gears he gets much stronger down the stretch and he's almost impossible to outbox. His engine is the best in the game right now. Most don't even believe a guy like Marquez could beat Lomachenko due to the style clash much less Casamayor.

 

[JayE]

I actually think its a pretty bad style matchup for Lomachenko. Casamayor was really good at clinching guys coming in to stop their aggression, while busting their face open with a sneaky headbutt at the same time. He was slick with good timing and deceptive power. He's not a guy who is going to be frozen and confused by some quick hands. I think prime Casamayor is several levels beyond anyone Lomachenko has been in there with.He wasn't just a technically sound fighter with great amateur base but he was also gritty and tough when he had to be. Too many tools for Lomachenko.

Casamayor's style was a great foil for pressure fighters precisely because of his ability to deal with stuff on the inside in addition to being an excellent, high-skill mover. I still think we'd ultimately see a relatively methodical boxing match from distance, though, and that kind of fight generally suits Lomachenko. Don't get me wrong, I think Casamayor would give him tons of trouble, but I think Casamayor might be outhustled over the distance. Hard to see this not being very competitive.

 

[JayE]

Casamayor would only have a puncher's chance at 130 or 135. He'd risk getting DQ'ed if he tried to pull a Salido on this version. Once Lomachenko starts going through the gears he gets much stronger down the stretch and he's almost impossible to outbox. His engine is the best in the game right now. Most don't even believe a guy like Marquez could beat Lomachenko due to the style clash much less Casamayor.

It's pretty bold to say a guy whose best win at 35 is Linares (in a fight which was relatively competitive up to the championship rounds) would be a commanding favourite over the likes of Marquez and Casamayor. Both Marquez and Casamayor were far better than Linares and about 10x more durable (the cards were even going into the 10th with Linares, don't forget).

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

It's pretty bold to say a guy whose best win at 35 is Linares (in a fight which was relatively competitive up to the championship rounds) would be a commanding favourite over the likes of Marquez and Casamayor. Both Marquez and Casamayor were far better than Linares and about 10x more durable (the cards were even going into the 10th with Linares, don't forget).

Styles make fights not résumés and we've seen it play out like that throughout the course of boxing history. You're also using a fight in which Lomachenko suffered a major injury early (2nd round) to his lead arm, tore his labrum down to the bone, and effectively had one arm to work and still stopped the guy. That wasn't an even fight, either. I don't care what the cards said.

Anyway, like I said, most favor Loma over Marquez at 130/135. This poll is still going on at Bad Left Hook and world renowned analysts (like Lee Wylie) see it the same way because styles make fights.

https://www.badlefthook.com/2020/4/...ez-dream-fight-fan-vote-who-wins#poll-results

 

[JayE]

Styles make fights not résumés and we've seen it play out like that throughout the course of boxing history. You're also using a fight in which Lomachenko suffered a major injury early (2nd round) to his lead arm, tore his labrum down to the bone, and effectively had one arm to work and still stopped the guy. That wasn't an even fight, either. I don't care what the cards said.

Anyway, like I said, most favor Loma over Marquez at 130/135. This poll is still going on at Bad Left Hook and world renowned analysts (like Lee Wylie) see it the same way because styles make fights.

https://www.badlefthook.com/2020/4/...ez-dream-fight-fan-vote-who-wins#poll-results

What's the style clash that makes Lomechenko a massive favourite over Casamayor (to the point that Casa only has a "puncher's chance") or a commanding favourite over Marquez? Marquez did have consistent issues throughout his career with prototypical backfoot boxers with strong jabs and speed advantages, but that's not necessarily the style of fighter Lomachenko is.

Resumes obviously don't matter in and of themselves in fantasy matchups, but I cite resume in this situation because of what we can glean from the LWs that Lomachenko has fought. Guys like Linares and Campbell, two considerably flawed fighters, were able to give Lomachenko some real issues at LW. Lomachenko hasn't fought anyone particularly similar stylistically or in terms of talent to Marquez or Casamayor. I'm not against the idea that he could win these fights or that he should potentially be favoured, but I've seen absolutely no evidence to justify him being a prohibitive favourite over either of them. They're both levels above anyone he's fought at the weight, and it's not like he has been utterly dominant at the weight.

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

What's the style clash that makes Lomechenko a massive favourite over Casamayor (to the point that Casa only has a "puncher's chance") or a commanding favourite over Marquez? Marquez did have consistent issues throughout his career with prototypical backfoot boxers with strong jabs and speed advantages, but that's not necessarily the style of fighter Lomachenko is.

Resumes obviously don't matter in and of themselves in fantasy matchups, but I cite resume in this situation because of what we can glean from the LWs that Lomachenko has fought. Guys like Linares and Campbell, two considerably flawed fighters, were able to give Lomachenko some real issues at LW. Lomachenko hasn't fought anyone particularly similar stylistically or in terms of talent to Marquez or Casamayor. I'm not against the idea that he could win these fights or that he should potentially be favoured, but I've seen absolutely no evidence to justify him being a prohibitive favourite over either of them. They're both levels above anyone he's fought at the weight, and it's not like he has been utterly dominant at the weight.

Marquez is a counter puncher. He won't have much to counter with Loma and he won't be able to force him into a firefight. He's also a plodder that won't be able to cut the ring off on Loma which would be necessary. Even then, most of the pressure fighter assumptions as Loma's foil are based off a single performance in Loma's 2nd pro fight, in a fight where Salido intentionally came in overweight, was 11 pounds heavier on fight night, and fouled him egregiously for 11 consecutive rounds. Any other fighter would've been DQ'ed that night and Cole is one of the most corrupt refs in history (read about it, it's public knowledge). He's so bad the BWAA put out a watch list and named him which was unprecedented.

Campbell won three rounds against Loma (including the 1st where Loma is just studying), his own promoter (Hearn) said as much. He was also dropped. Loma was fighting his fight too in his backyard and outboxing him for most of the fight even from the outside. You consider a 9-3 match-up with a knockdown in Loma's favor "real problems"? You guys are reaching. Every fighter has competitive and semi-competitive matches, especially outside of their natural weight classes, they all did. Whitaker, Roy, Floyd, Pep, and so on. Shane Mosley is a bad match-up for Loma for a number of reasons. I have no issue with you believing Lomachenko can be beaten but you guys are usually wildly off. The top trainers in the sport and the top analysts don't even agree with you a lot of the time.

 

[JayE]

Marquez is a counter puncher. He won't have much to counter with Loma and he won't be able to force him into a firefight. He's also a plodder that won't be able to cut the ring off on Loma which would be necessary. Even then, most of the pressure fighter assumptions as Loma's foil are based off a single performance in Loma's 2nd pro fight, in a fight where Salido intentionally came in overweight, was 11 pounds heavier on fight night, and fouled him egregiously for 11 consecutive rounds. Any other fighter would've been DQ'ed that night and Cole is one of the most corrupt refs in history (read about it, it's public knowledge). He's so bad the BWAA put out a watch list and named him which was unprecedented.

Campbell won three rounds against Loma (including the 1st where Loma is just studying), his own promoter (Hearn) said as much. He was also dropped. Loma was fighting his fight too in his backyard and outboxing him for most of the fight even from the outside. You consider a 9-3 match-up with a knockdown in Loma's favor "real problems"? You guys are reaching. Every fighter has competitive and semi-competitive matches, especially outside of their natural weight classes, they all did. Whitaker, Roy, Floyd, Pep, and so on. Shane Mosley is a bad match-up for Loma for a number of reasons. I have no issue with you believing Lomachenko can be beaten but you guys are usually wildly off. The top trainers in the sport and the top analysts don't even agree with you a lot of the time.

When we're talking about a fairly underwhelming pro like Campbell, it's notable to point out that Lomachenko had some issues with him, especially when Campbell makes up 1/4 of his LW career. We are talking about Lomachenko being a very big favourite over two of the best LWs of the last 30 years, so it's important to establish what he has and hasn't done at the weight, no?

A guy like Marquez has fought a laundry list of elite fighters, several above LW, and has only been clearly beaten once in his career, by a bigger, prime Floyd Mayweather. For a LW to be considered a strong favourite over him, I expect for them to have showcased something very impressive at LW, or possess, in abundance, the abilities that have previously troubled Marquez. Lomachenko certainly doesn't have the performances at LW that alone merit him being the clear favourite, so one would have to blown away by his skillset and how it particularly fits against Marquez. He doesn't necessarily have all the tools which have historically troubled Marquez. Lomachenko has great feet, but he's not necessarily a guy who moves a ton on the backfoot and forces a guy to chase him, or fights behind a commanding, strong jab. I don't really see much which would lead to me to strongly favour Lomachenko in such a fight.

What I do see is a highly competitive fight with tons of question marks (mostly because Lomachenko doesn't have much to go off of against elite competition). There is very little we don't know about Marquez, but tons that we don't about Lomachenko.

Also, who are "you guys" and about what are we "usually wildly off"?

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

When we're talking about a fairly underwhelming pro like Campbell, it's notable to point out that Lomachenko had some issues with him, especially when Campbell makes up 1/4 of his LW career. We are talking about Lomachenko being a very big favourite over two of the best LWs of the last 30 years, so it's important to establish what he has and hasn't done at the weight, no?

A guy like Marquez has fought a laundry list of elite fighters, several above LW, and has only been clearly beaten once in his career, by a bigger, prime Floyd Mayweather. For a LW to be considered a strong favourite over him, I expect for them to have showcased something very impressive at LW, or possess, in abundance, the abilities that have previously troubled Marquez. Lomachenko certainly doesn't have the performances at LW that alone merit him being the clear favourite, so one would have to blown away by his skillset and how it particularly fits against Marquez. He doesn't necessarily have all the tools which have historically troubled Marquez. Lomachenko has great feet, but he's not necessarily a guy who moves a ton on the backfoot and forces a guy to chase him, or fights behind a commanding, strong jab. I don't really see much which would lead to me to strongly favour Lomachenko in such a fight.

What I do see is a highly competitive fight with tons of question marks (mostly because Lomachenko doesn't have much to go off of against elite competition). There is very little we don't know about Marquez, but tons that we don't about Lomachenko.

Also, who are "you guys" and about what are we "usually wildly off"?

So Casamayor wins then because he's more established at the weight, basically. That's what you're saying. Except reputations and résumés don't win a fighter a h2h match-up. They never have and they never will. I never said Marquez couldn't trouble him or even Casamayor but you guys pretend like Loma is some easy mark at times in these purely mythical match-ups. It's also worth pointing out that Loma has never lost to a Cuban fighter not even as an amateur. In fact his best pro performance was against a Cuban fighter far more decorated than a guy like Casamayor. He outboxed the guy and clowned him (who nobody thought could ever be made to look ridiculous). Loma is also clearly not just a pressure fighter.

Now, whether you believe the fans are wrong or not, the Loma vs Marquez poll is clear. That's the public's opinion on the fight (along with several top analysts, mind you) and I'll bet quite a few of those that voted are educated fight fans that understand how match-ups work. Marquez is the much more popular fighter of the two if anything so that's not why he's well behind in the poll, it's not for lack of popularity. It's fair to say that most fans simply feel he just didn't have the style that would decisively beat him at those weights.

These mythical match-ups are largely useless either way. You're attempting to predict both fighters' approach to the other and that's just not possible. It's the key factor that can't be overlooked. For all we know Loma goes into a fight with Marquez and boxes and moves for 12 rounds. He's perfectly capable of doing that and simply potshotting his way to victory (has the speed, mobility, IQ, slipperiness, command of center ring, slickness, boxing ability, feet, stamina etc). As far as the mythical match-ups here on Sherdog, they rarely reflect other polls and discussions. Take for example Vitali vs Fury. Did you see BLH's breakdown and poll? Last I checked Fury was slightly leading in what they believe is basically a dead even fight. But here it was like 2:1 in favor of Vitali (nostalgia?).

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

@JayE, I missed this part. So, Lomachenko doesn't fight behind a commanding jab? Really? It was his jab that Campbell (a guy with at least 6 inches of reach advantage, several inches in height, & an Olympic champion who knows how to use his range) had no answer for. None at all. It was a power jab (called a spear jab) landing all night snapping his head back. This is just a single clip out of an entire highlight that could be built just on his jabbing alone in that fight.

 

[JayE]

So Casamayor wins then because he's more established at the weight, basically. That's what you're saying. Except reputations and résumés don't win a fighter a h2h match-up. They never have and they never will. I never said Marquez couldn't trouble him or even Casamayor but you guys pretend like Loma is some easy mark at times in these purely mythical match-ups. It's also worth pointing out that Loma has never lost to a Cuban fighter not even as an amateur. In fact his best pro performance was against a Cuban fighter far more decorated than a guy like Casamayor. He outboxed the guy and clowned him (who nobody thought could ever be made to look ridiculous). Loma is also clearly not just a pressure fighter.

Now, whether you believe the fans are wrong or not, the Loma vs Marquez poll is clear. That's the public's opinion on the fight (along with several top analysts, mind you) and I'll bet quite a few of those that voted are educated fight fans that understand how match-ups work. Marquez is the much more popular fighter of the two if anything so that's not why he's well behind in the poll, it's not for lack of popularity. It's fair to say that most fans simply feel he just didn't have the style that would decisively beat him at those weights.

These mythical match-ups are largely useless either way. You're attempting to predict both fighters' approach to the other and that's just not possible. It's the key factor that can't be overlooked. For all we know Loma goes into a fight with Marquez and boxes and moves for 12 rounds. He's perfectly capable of doing that and simply potshotting his way to victory (has the speed, mobility, IQ, slipperiness, command of center ring, slickness, boxing ability, feet, stamina etc). As far as the mythical match-ups here on Sherdog, they rarely reflect other polls and discussions. Take for example Vitali vs Fury. Did you see BLH's breakdown and poll? Last I checked Fury was slightly leading in what they believe is basically a dead even fight. But here it was like 2:1 in favor of Vitali (nostalgia?).

I clearly said I'd slightly favour Lomachenko against Casamayor, but alright.

I don't give a shit about random polls you're plucking off the internet, and I'm not even arguing that anyone says Lomachenko would beat Marquez is wrong; it would certainly be a possibility. I'm arguing against the idea that Casamayor would somehow only have a "puncher's chance" or that Lomachenko would somehow be a very strong favourite over Juan Manuel Marquez. A prime Manny Pacquiao never once deserved to be a very strong favourite over Juan Manuel Marquez, yet we're to expect Lomachenko to be? I don't see how Lomachenko has done enough or shown enough to give that kind of edge over guys of that quality.

If you don't think mythical matchup discussions are worthwhile, it's pretty simple to just avoid them.

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

I clearly said I'd slightly favour Lomachenko against Casamayor, but alright.

I don't give a shit about random polls you're plucking off the internet, and I'm not even arguing that anyone says Lomachenko would beat Marquez is wrong; it would certainly be a possibility. I'm arguing against the idea that Casamayor would somehow only have a "puncher's chance" or that Lomachenko would somehow be a very strong favourite over Juan Manuel Marquez. A prime Manny Pacquiao never once deserved to be a very strong favourite over Juan Manuel Marquez, yet we're to expect Lomachenko to be? I don't see how Lomachenko has done enough or shown enough to give that kind of edge over guys of that quality.

If you don't think mythical matchup discussions are worthwhile, it's pretty simple to just avoid them.

It's not a random poll and it also breaks each fighter down. It's a currently running poll on a well known and respected boxing website. It's part of their popular fantasy match-up series so it's hardly random. They also recently did a prime Vitali vs Fury breakdown & poll as well (which I already posted). I just don't go by clout or popularity in h2h match-ups. As for the odds Casamayor wouldn't be favored over Loma at 130 or 135. The kind of odds we're seeing now with Loma are the kind of odds we saw with a prime Floyd. The bookies must have good reason for favoring him so heavily. Again, you don't have to agree with the poll but that's the public's opinion on the JMM vs Loma match-up. It's not like 20 or 30 people voted that just DKSAB.

I made some GIFs to illustrate Loma's jab (just showcased in his last fight) since you decided to write it off earlier. It's apparent that it's commanding (authoritative) as he was snapping the taller Campbell's head back the whole fight. The power jab isn't a new wrinkle to his game, it's always been there, maybe just underutilized in some of his fights.




Body work softens him up but the jab finish is actually what forces him to take a knee for the knockdown

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

(Continued)...

Another jab finish that would've forced him to take a knee if it wasn't for the takedown attempt

 

[JayE]

It's not a random poll and it also breaks each fighter down. It's a currently running poll on a well known and respected boxing website. It's part of their popular fantasy match-up series so it's hardly random. They also recently did a prime Vitali vs Fury breakdown & poll as well (which I already posted). I just don't go by clout or popularity in h2h match-ups. As for the odds Casamayor wouldn't be favored over Loma at 130 or 135. The kind of odds we're seeing now with Loma are the kind of odds we saw with a prime Floyd. The bookies must have good reason for favoring him so heavily. Again, you don't have to agree with the poll but that's the public's opinion on the JMM vs Loma match-up. It's not like 20 or 30 people voted that just DKSAB.

I made some GIFs to illustrate Loma's jab (just showcased in his last fight) since you decided to write it off earlier. It's apparent that it's commanding (authoritative) as he was snapping the taller Campbell's head back the whole fight. The power jab isn't a new wrinkle to his game, it's always been there, maybe just underutilized in some of his fights.

Again, I don't care about polls, whether they're on this site or other ones.

I never said I'd even favour Casamayor over Lomachenko, let alone what hypothetical bookies would do. What I did say is that reducing a guy like Casamayor's chances to a "puncher's chance" is, to me, far too bold considering what we've see from Lomachenko at LW. The bookies are favouring him so heavily at LW because he's faced three no-hopers in his four fights at the weight. None of the four fighters he's fought are close to the level of guys like Casamayor and Marquez. For further context, Lopez has opened at less than 3 to 1 against Lomachenko at LW, despite having one meaningful win at the weight. Is a very raw 22 year old Lopez a comparable threat to a prime Juan Manuel Marquez or Joel Casamayor?

As for Lomachenko controlling an orthodox fighter like Marquez with his jab, I'm pretty skeptical. Marquez had considerable success limiting the effectiveness of Pacquiao's lead hand throughout their 4 fight series, largely because he was so successful in countering it. We need to remember that Marquez would be the biggest puncher that Lomachenko has ever fought by far and is one of the best counter punchers of all time.