https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/lfa-138-2608
https://www.sherdog.com/events/LFA-138-Farias-vs-Tanaka-93789
A lot of apparent mismatches on this card. The most obvious bettable line is Diego Silva (-155) vs. Askar Askar (+125). Best Fight Odds has him listed as #4 UFC Flyweight Askar Askarov, which might have something to do with the opening line being -300.
Askar has decent striking and grappling offence, but poor defence in both areas, IMO. He got outwrestled in the first round by a flyweight wrestler (Ryskulbek Ibraimov) when he was a -300 favourite, and tagged on the feet as well. Silva has a BJJ black belt, but doesn't appear to be a great finisher. Struggles to maintain back control. While I hate to say this about someone who fights for a living, he doesn't seem to have a lot of heart, and doesn't believe in his striking. He throws single strikes, and retreats from all engagements. He seems okay with coasting to a decision loss when things aren't going well. Reach is about the same (~69.5"). I think Silva takes a decision via grappling, but Askar has a path to victory if he can make it primarily a striking contest and get Silva into his pattern of backing up the whole fight. Probably a no-bet for me, unless there's a good o2.5 line.
Anyone see anything they like?