Leon has a decent chance at beating Usman

Leon's fought such weak competition over his UFC career, I just don't know. Usmans striking has improved a lot, he's the bigger guy, longer reach, better jab, throws higher volume, more knockout power and technically while I don't think he's caught up to Leon, he's closed the gap and has a lot of advantages even standing.

Leon's also a bit Chinny but I think he's the quicker guy by a bit and has cleaner, tighter technique for sure. Besides Leon himself, Usman hasn't fought any slick long strikers. People assume Leon's defensive wrestling has improved because since the Usman fight he showed better offensive wrestling but he never really fought any good wrestlers to show us he can do better vs Usmans cage wrestling and takedowns, who has he beat like that, LW RDA? Not much of a comparison. I think Leon's defensive wrestling will be formidable in the early rounds but can he stay off the cage? He started to wilt vs Usman last time in 3 rounds, 5 round Usman is a monster.

I give Leon a chance but I think Usman should be about a 4 to 1 favorite.
 
Leon got tagged by DIAZ, I think Usman is going to decapitate him honestly! He has serious power- and if Leon gets clipped by him its lights out.
 
fortheo said:
I haven't thought much about it, I just think Leon's clinch and TDD are better than before and I'm not sure if usman can still wrestle the way he used to. If the fight is on the feet for the majority of the time, I think Leon out points him. I say 48-47 because I consider Leon a point fighter and a tactician, but I suspect his cardio may be worse than usman's which will result in usman picking up two rounds.

It's just my feeling, though. I do worry how Leon handles the pressure of finally getting the huge fight he wanted.
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Really solid breakdown, agree across the board. The only thing I think left out here is Usman has shown no bullshit stopping power.

Leon is a excellent point fighter and his counter wrestling will be a lot better, but he has to aware getting KO'd is on the table.
 
mjfan23 said:
Leon has a chance and usmans knees might impact his takedowns. But either way we all know whoever wins this won’t be champ for long Khazmat is coming and would be favoured over them even in a two on one
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If Leon is smart, he will target Usman's knees.
 
They already fought
And Usman improved his striking since then
I don't know how much Edwards improved his TDD
Also, Edwards is not a KO fighter.
With someone like Mas or Chimaev, you could expect a one strike KO
In this case, I think Usman gets it
Sure, Edwards has a chance, but every fighter has a chance... well, except CM Punk

Maybe only if Usman decides to only strike... Edwards being the superior striker.

 
Iroh said:
If Leon is smart, he will target Usman's knees.
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That will be hard to do vs a power jab in your face from a guy with a 76in reach, who hits harder, throws more, presses forward and is looking to press you against the cage all night long.
 
HuskySamoan said:
That will be hard to do vs a power jab in your face from a guy with a 76in reach, who hits harder, throws more, presses forward and is looking to press you against the cage all night long.
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The reach isn't that much more than Leon's and it's mostly shoulder in which Usman has the reach advantage. Of course he will have to time them right and possibly set them up. Nothing on paper is gonna be 'easy' against Usman.
 
Iroh said:
The reach isn't that much more than Leon's and it's mostly shoulder in which Usman has the reach advantage. Of course he will have to time them right and possibly set them up. Nothing on paper is gonna be 'easy' against Usman.
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Holy shit, I've brought up how reach is somewhat inaccurate due to shoulder width and finger length being measured with it for like a decade now and hardly ever heard anyone else say that. I like you.
 
I think that Usman is a little better everywhere. Of course he has a chance. But I don't think much of one.
 
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He needs to beat the socks off Usman if he wants the belt. Nothing less then a one sided old fashioned beatdown or a finish. If he tries point fighting a close fight, he probably won't win. I hope he has some tricks up sleeve to be honest and makes this fight worth watching. Otherwise it will probably be the same result as the first fight. Leon needs to put it all on the table. Go for broke. He needs to dominate.

After watching both these fighters perform over the last decade, I think Usman has the major advantage. Usman fought through the murderers row and looked great doing it. Leon has not looked very great and he fought a bunch chumps and washed up dudes. Sat out a lot. Had a strange career.

It will be a interesting fight. I think Edwards has to put on the best performance of his career if he wants to win. He needs to do what he has never done before. Put it all out there. Take risks. Win the fight dominantly and show us his heart. I would not put to much faith in this "Kamaru Usman has weak knee's" rumor going around. His knee's seemed fine in his last fights. His problem is always his fingers , knuckles and fists because he hits really hard and shatters them on peoples faces.
 
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HuskySamoan said:
That will be hard to do vs a power jab in your face from a guy with a 76in reach, who hits harder, throws more, presses forward and is looking to press you against the cage all night long.
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Jabbing against a tall southpaw like Leon isn't going to be easy. Maybe us man switches to southpaw himself to open up the jab, but he seems a lot more vulnerable from that stance.
 
fortheo said:
Jabbing against a tall southpaw like Leon isn't going to be easy. Maybe us man switches to southpaw himself to open up the jab, but he seems a lot more vulnerable from that stance.
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I think Usman will probably make this look easy, but I've definitely grown pessimistic of the WW division over the years due to its shallowness and rapidly aging top 10. Colby landed on Usman A LOT and if Usmans takedown game has deteriorated as much as some suspect, Leon could make it an interesting fight. I just don't think it will be, whether standing or clinching I think Usmans power, pressure, physicality, jab and cardio will crush Leon en route to a decision win or late TKO. Usmans too great for me to have hope that a guy like Leon who's best win I'd argue is either Tumenov or a green Luque who was 11-5-1 at the time.

We'll see, I hope you're right. I'd like Leon to win, I checked the odds and Usman is 3.5 to 1 favorite. Seems about how I feel about this fight.
 
Mesos said:
Think alot of people are sleeping on Leons chances at beating Usman. He has really clean, slick striking and is very methodical about how he approaches his opponents. Leons ones of the best strikers in the Welterweight and is good at fight planning.

With Usman the biggest worry is his great wrestling but I think Leons wrestling has improved dramatically since firsr fight. I can see Leon winning a boring decision by fighting safe and tactfully.
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Leon has a very good MMA skillset. I don't like his chin and obviously Usman has the advantage in wrestling. Usman might have the better cardio but I think Usman's heart is the big difference maker in this fight. Could Leon win? Yes, but if heart comes into play Usman takes it. Usman's heart is at the top of the food chain with guys like GSP, Jones, Khabib etc..
 
Hope all of these people claiming Leon is going to win are betting and shifting the lines because I'll gladly take better odds on Usman. Edwards has finished 1 opponent in 6 years and 25 minutes is a longgg time to avoid a power shot considering Diaz's bloated corpse still put him on noodle legs.

Usman via KO in a win that does WAYYY too much to further inflate his padded resume
 
I certainly hope Leon doesn't win. As a Khamzat fan I can't think of anything better/more hyped than if Khamzat steamrolls Nate and Kamaru steamrolls Leon and then they fight for the title. It would be so anti-climactic to instead do Khamzat vs Leon and drain all the hype out of the room.
 
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