Leaning toward Tony

[PerpetualWB]

Tony's biggest biggest flaw in the past few years has been opening himself up to getting hit or letting himself be put in a bad position early. Unfortunately for Khabib, he has not shown much of an ability to capitalize on early mistakes to finish fights. Instead, he executes his predictable, albeit well executed, game plan of forcing the takedown and securing dominant position.

That's going to be a problem as Tony is able to pick up on more and more of Khabib's tendencies and challenge Khabib in unique ways that other opponents of Khabib haven't. A Khabib who is unable to finish Tony is going to find himself losing the cardio battle and becoming increastngly vulnerable to making mistakes. Tony is bound to capitalize on opportunities if given enough time. Khabib's inability to fight with an urgency to finish will be his downfall and he will likely not survive to the judge's scorecards.

I'm interested to hear what you guys' thoughts may be here.

 

[ufcfan4]

I favor Tony too for a similar reason. We've seen Tony endure and persevere through bad spots and then pour it on down the stretch, often forcing opponents to wilt. His gas tank is a huge asset even if I'm not quite sure that Khabib's is a liability (he's only seemed fatigued in a couple of fights from what I recall).

His ability to take a beating without getting put away is also an asset especially in a five rounder where he will have more time to work before a decision is rendered.

To me, the nature of the fight as a main event and championship bout favors Tony. If it was a three-rounder, I think Khabib would be a substantial favorite.

As it stands, Khabib's path to victory to me seems to be that he inflicts enough of a lopsided beatdown early on that he ends up ahead on the scorecards to the extent that even Tony taking over the fight later will not change the ultimate outcome. (think, for instance, of something like two 10-8 rounds). Or he does so much damage early that even the typically aggressive and effective Tony is not the guy we are used to seeing later in the fight.

Frankly, I don't have too much confidence in either scenario.

I'm pulling for Khabib, but I think Tony takes this.

 

[wigglestick]

I'm leaning khabib, but at +230 I'm putting some money on tony(especially in a 5 rounder). If you're leaning tony you should too

 

[Reach4theSky]

Looking at Khabib's top control and gnp, I find it hard to foresee Tony doing anything from the guard. As good as his BJJ is, Khabib's wrestling is otherworldly..

I think Tony will take his beating like a man and lose a decision...

 

[DOMMA]

Looking at Khabib's top control and gnp, I find it hard to foresee Tony doing anything from the guard. As good as his BJJ is, Khabib's wrestling is otherworldly..

I think Tony will take his beating like a man and lose a decision...

This.... Khabib gas GSPish wrestling and can control anyone in the division on the ground. He will get Tony to the ground.

 

[MMAProfessional]

I was rooting for Tony until Kevin got into mount like it was nothing. Khabib can do that for 3 rounds at least and Tony was saved by the bell from being in someones mount.

 

[Goatenstein]

Tony got outgrappled by a basic wrestler until Lee gassed.

 

[Leinster Rugby]

I think Khabib takes it.

 

[Bend NvR Break]

1. Everyone assumes Khabib's gas tank will be suspect. I'm more worried about Ferguson's gas tank after 3 rounds of Khabib's GnP and insane top pressure. Looking for Ferguson to be noticably slower if the fight makes it to the championship rounds.

2. Khabib can't finish a fight? I'm guessing Khabib via sub by kimura from side mount. Everyone is talking about Ferguson's guard. Ferguson is dangerous off his back being a 10th plant BJJ practioner but he thrives and is best during scrambles.

3. Ferguson's stand up D is atrocious and I wouldn't be surprised to see Khabib land some clean strikes.

4. Tony is a notoriously slow starter and he very well can be down 20-16 going into the 3rd.

 

[Leonard Haid]

Tony's biggest biggest flaw in the past few years has been opening himself up to getting hit or letting himself be put in a bad position early. Unfortunately for Khabib, he has not shown much of an ability to capitalize on early mistakes to finish fights. Instead, he executes his predictable, albeit well executed, game plan of forcing the takedown and securing dominant position.

That's going to be a problem as Tony is able to pick up on more and more of Khabib's tendencies and challenge Khabib in unique ways that other opponents of Khabib haven't. A Khabib who is unable to finish Tony is going to find himself losing the cardio battle and becoming increastngly vulnerable to making mistakes. Tony is bound to capitalize on opportunities if given enough time. Khabib's inability to fight with an urgency to finish will be his downfall and he will likely not survive to the judge's scorecards.

I'm interested to hear what you guys' thoughts may be here.

Khabib does elevation training in the mountains of Dagestan, and just watching him fight he seems capable of going full throttle forever. As well, Khabib doesn't drink alcohol or smoke anything. Therefore I don't see Tony winning the cardio battle. Not losing, just not winning.

To another point - Khabib has never HAD to fight with urgency since he has been so dominant, so you can't conclude that he's not able to fight with urgency.

This fight is simply impossible to predict. It may come down to who's in the zone and who isn't. If they both are...toss up.

 

[VinceArch]

I'm rooting for Ferguson but this honestly is a fight where I have no idea what will happen.

 

[rurouni]

yeah, and ferguson played football and baseball back in middle/high school

 

[Franklin U.]

Listen- nobody's unbeatable otherwise khabib would be sitting at a -470 .
He's been involved in decisions that were not supposed to go the 15
...Even, MJ - a mediocre 145er (now) had khabib noodle legged for a few seconds off a combo.Dont get me wrong, the way khabib just owned Edson for duration was pretty impressive and he's favored -240 over t-ferg for a reason but I won't be in disbelief if Tony pulls out upset.
Flip side of coin is that khabib s stand up better than what most people are giving credit for.
I gotta go with eagle here- Tonys fan friendly way of fighting could lead to big time trouble and early.If khabib wins ,though, Conor wont put pen to paper to fight Russian and if that's the case then THAT'S THE PROVERBIAL BREAKING POINT------MCGREGOR GEYS STRIPPED.Khabib official 155 champ and let Conor face the #8 Nate Diaz or box or whatever the f- he wants to do.Its a God damn shame cause the way Conor brings it to the GON, he's extremely impressive at 145 and 155.The Napoleon complex induced Irishman doesn't know how to carry himself and it's just embarrassing. You'd think the label of 2 division champ and a child would turn the 29 year old into the thought of at least being somewhat of a role model------ a figurehead of the ufc and can still be arrogant but show it behind your confidence.
One of THEE most frustrating sports figures ever to come across

 

[Khabib Fan]

Tony isn't just fighting against Khabib, he's fighting against Allah!

The unbeliever will soon reap the wages of his unbelief.

 

[Sean Long]

Tony's biggest biggest flaw in the past few years has been opening himself up to getting hit or letting himself be put in a bad position early. Unfortunately for Khabib, he has not shown much of an ability to capitalize on early mistakes to finish fights. Instead, he executes his predictable, albeit well executed, game plan of forcing the takedown and securing dominant position.

That's going to be a problem as Tony is able to pick up on more and more of Khabib's tendencies and challenge Khabib in unique ways that other opponents of Khabib haven't. A Khabib who is unable to finish Tony is going to find himself losing the cardio battle and becoming increastngly vulnerable to making mistakes. Tony is bound to capitalize on opportunities if given enough time. Khabib's inability to fight with an urgency to finish will be his downfall and he will likely not survive to the judge's scorecards.

I'm interested to hear what you guys' thoughts may be here.

Hillary is going to win the election.....90% chance.........

 

[Sansnom]

Tony isn't just fighting against Khabib, he's fighting against Allah!

The unbeliever will soon reap the wages of his unbelief.

 

[Mortigan]

I'm giving this fight a 50/50 at best, with the caveat that the winner will look great an everyone will say the outcome was obvious.

Smart money is on the betting underdog.

 

[The ScorpioN]

I've been leaning towards Tony since Khabib decided to duck him the last time.

Tony will have a tough 1st round, possibly 2nd, but as soon as Khabib inevitably slows down, Tony will pick up the pace, break him and tap him in the 4th or 5th round.

Khabib will need an extended ramadan with extra prayer on all 4s. Tony will not only give him his first loss and a beating, but also shake his faith. Khabib will be thinking about turning to Jesus during the late rounds, because Allah won't be hearing his pleas.

 

[BA0701]

Tony's biggest biggest flaw in the past few years has been opening himself up to getting hit or letting himself be put in a bad position early. Unfortunately for Khabib, he has not shown much of an ability to capitalize on early mistakes to finish fights. Instead, he executes his predictable, albeit well executed, game plan of forcing the takedown and securing dominant position.

That's going to be a problem as Tony is able to pick up on more and more of Khabib's tendencies and challenge Khabib in unique ways that other opponents of Khabib haven't. A Khabib who is unable to finish Tony is going to find himself losing the cardio battle and becoming increastngly vulnerable to making mistakes. Tony is bound to capitalize on opportunities if given enough time. Khabib's inability to fight with an urgency to finish will be his downfall and he will likely not survive to the judge's scorecards.

I'm interested to hear what you guys' thoughts may be here.

What you are not taking into account is just how draining, both physically and mentally, having a guy like Khabib on top of you, smashing you relentlessly, can be. Need look no further than his last fight, Barboza looked great coming into the fight, but could barely stand under his own power by the end of the first round. He was broken, defeated, both physically and mentally, while Khabib got up looking fresh as can be. Nobody, and I mean nobody, can take a smashing like that and remain fresh and full of energy. Having cardio when you are executing your gameplan, and maintaining it with a guy like Khabib on top of you, just smashing, are two entirely different things. Anybody who believes that Tony is going to weather a storm of having Khabib on top of him, simply by having better cardio is just fooling themselves.

Tony has the tools to win this fight, it is a fight after all and anything can happen, but if he does win, I can assure you it will not be as a result of him riding out the storm with Khabib on top of him. While I personally do not see Tony winning, it is not out of the realm of possibilities.

 

[Paynebringer]

I'm liking Tony more and more as much as I like Khabib's grinder ways he's very 1 dimensional he strikes only to set-up take downs or to get into grapple positions. Everybody knows Khabib's game plan but no one knows Tony's, Tony's constant movement, high activity, and unorthodox style will give Khabib real problems. The longer this fight is standing the better for Tony.

Even on the ground Tony is one of the most wiry guys off his back too low in his guard you catching elbows and strikes, too high you'll get choked by slick jits. Khabib is a tough customer no doubt, but Tony as more ways to win a higher fight IQ and more experienced in going into championship rounds.