Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Haha, I did notice that. I figured that's what you were going to say but I wanted to run it by you anyway.

To be honest, I don't even use that same bit regarding posts anymore. I do assign value to post positions, of course, with consideration to bias and potential trip. But the value I have is never more than 10 for any one horse, nevermind 20. Plus I realized after we implemented that part that just basing it on percentages gets skewed because outside posts are generally going to be less as a % than inside unless the track sees a big outside bias. A field of 6 sees a a random chance of 16.7% for any one horse whereas a field of 8+ see a random chance of 12.5% or less. If you know what I mean.

Did you happen to see anything else in the PP's beyond the numbers you came up with that jumps out to you as a positive or negative?

 

[t6p]

To be honest, I don't even use that same bit regarding posts anymore. I do assign value to post positions, of course, with consideration to bias and potential trip. But the value I have is never more than 10 for any one horse, nevermind 20. Plus I realized after we implemented that part that just basing it on percentages gets skewed because outside posts are generally going to be less as a % than inside unless the track sees a big outside bias. A field of 6 sees a a random chance of 16.7% for any one horse whereas a field of 8+ see a random chance of 12.5% or less. If you know what I mean.

Did you happen to see anything else in the PP's beyond the numbers you came up with that jumps out to you as a positive or negative?

Gotcha. That makes sense.

I'm still looking everything over, but it does seem unlikely (impossible?) that I'd be able to find an angle on a horse that you haven't already seen. I am kind of intrigued with Catholic Boy, though. I wasn't familiar with him before but it seems like he may be hitting his stride and Castellano has historically done well in the Travers. Any thoughts on that horse Shark?

 

[Sharkey]

Gotcha. That makes sense.

I'm still looking everything over, but it does seem unlikely (impossible?) that I'd be able to find an angle on a horse that you haven't already seen. I am kind of intrigued with Catholic Boy, though. I wasn't familiar with him before but it seems like he may be hitting his stride and Castellano has historically done well in the Travers. Any thoughts on that horse Shark?

I like him enough to use him too, T. I was fairly high on him earlier this year during Derby prep season, but he came up short of making that race after having issues in the Florida Derby. It came out after the race that he bled during it, so if you cross a line through that race given he had a viable excuse, his races this year look quite good. He's also a gamer which I like. He went head-to-head with another gamer Flameaway earlier this year and came up just short while racing off a 70+ day layoff and with the Derby as the goal. Then look at the running lines his last two races when against Analyze It, who was the big buzz horse this summer when it came to the turf division and was a heavy favourite in both of those races. Catholic Boy had the lead into the stretch in both races, got passed late by Analyze It in both races, and then came back in the last few strides to get the win. The last one was in a G1 which means that Catholic Boy is one of only two G1 winners in the race along with Good Magic. I think he has a legitimate shot for sure, and maybe even a good shot if Good Magic stubs his toe, has a troubled trip, or can't see out the 10F effectively. Castellano is a plus for sure. A good strategy for him I think would be to try to get Good Magic in an uncomfortable position and trapped between horses. Those two horses should be in a similar stalking position early in the race. But Good Magic's best quality is his class, though, so that may not work out for Catholic Boy no matter how game he is. It may be the winning strategy though.

 

[Sharkey]

Uncovered another potential pace angle last night with some research.

High Low Second.

Found 71 horses who fit the particulars of this angle and out of those 49 improved in their next race (69%), and the 71 in total produced an average of a 3.6 point improvement on their final figure from one race to the next. 17 of them jumped up at least 10 points and 10 of them jumped up 20+ points. Only two regressed more than 10 points off of it. Not the greatest sample size, but something for me to keep an eye on and test out. Could be a good one.

@t6p

If you look at Tenfold's PP's going into the Travers he'd be one to fit this pattern. Just ran his 2nd highest E1 and E2 figures his last race (the "High" in the pattern), as well as his lowest LP figure so far (The "Low"). Will now be making his 2nd start off a layoff (The "Second"). I tried to explain this concept a few posts back, but this is basically just eliminating the 1st race off the layoff conditioner part of it. Tenfold went into his last race with 4 workouts to his credit, so he probably got his conditioning in those and was sharp enough to at least keep up a good early pace for two-thirds of the race. Just not enough conditioning to produce a peak effort, whcih may mean it's coming in his next start.

So far my research says that this pace angle isn't quite as good as my new late early third angle considering it shows a slightly less percentage of improvement overall, and a little less average improvement (plus it's compared to one race wheras the LET angle is compared to his 1st two of form cycle). But it's also a much smaller sample size in comparison, so who knows what more examples would show. I am trying it out with a couple of horses today, though.

 

[Sharkey]

P.S. I need some new names for these angles. These ones suck. Help me out someone won't you?

 

[Sharkey]

Race 8 at Saratoga - #5 Zenato 6/1 (NPT, E2, HLS) (17.1% = 5/1 fair odds)

Based on the double will says I should be getting my price on this one. But I have this as a wide open race with 6 of the 8 horses all lumped in within 20 points of each other on the numbers. I suspect the betting public sees it as a similar wide open race.

 

[Sharkey]

Yep. Early favourite is 7/2 as betting opens with the longest priced horse being 8/1.

 

[Sharkey]

This is the type of race I can go win/place with it being a large enough field at 8, and with no heavy favourite to bring the place payouts down if it does run top 2.

 

[Sharkey]

Plus the answer to the question under my username has been whatever horse I bet on more often than not the last few days.

 

[t6p]

I like him enough to use him too, T. I was fairly high on him earlier this year during Derby prep season, but he came up short of making that race after having issues in the Florida Derby. It came out after the race that he bled during it, so if you cross a line through that race given he had a viable excuse, his races this year look quite good. He's also a gamer which I like. He went head-to-head with another gamer Flameaway earlier this year and came up just short while racing off a 70+ day layoff and with the Derby as the goal. Then look at the running lines his last two races when against Analyze It, who was the big buzz horse this summer when it came to the turf division and was a heavy favourite in both of those races. Catholic Boy had the lead into the stretch in both races, got passed late by Analyze It in both races, and then came back in the last few strides to get the win. The last one was in a G1 which means that Catholic Boy is one of only two G1 winners in the race along with Good Magic. I think he has a legitimate shot for sure, and maybe even a good shot if Good Magic stubs his toe, has a troubled trip, or can't see out the 10F effectively. Castellano is a plus for sure. A good strategy for him I think would be to try to get Good Magic in an uncomfortable position and trapped between horses. Those two horses should be in a similar stalking position early in the race. But Good Magic's best quality is his class, though, so that may not work out for Catholic Boy no matter how game he is. It may be the winning strategy though.

Thanks for the breakdown Shark. Great stuff as always. I noticed that you noted the “HLS” angle on Tenfold. After seeing the numbers and looking over the PPs a bit my initial thought was some combination of Good Magic, Tenfold and Catholic Boy for my exactas/tris. It seems like maybe we’re thinking along the same lines here. #9, #10, #11 does have a nice ring to it.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for the breakdown Shark. Great stuff as always. I noticed that you noted the “HLS” angle on Tenfold. After seeing the numbers and looking over the PPs a bit my initial thought was some combination of Good Magic, Tenfold and Catholic Boy for my exactas/tris. It seems like maybe we’re thinking along the same lines here. #9, #10, #11 does have a nice ring to it.

I like it, T. I may throw Vino Rosso as an underneath type with those 3 in some trifecta combinations. Maybe go 2x4x4 or something like that. An exacta with the 3 you mentioned does seem the best option if looking to box, though. May go 1x4x4 in the super as well by keying Good Magic up top and then maybe throwing Bravazo in there as well. I've never been a big fan of Bravazo, though, so I don't want to rely on him too much despite being up there on the numbers. As the potential lone speed in the race Trigger Warning as a 30/1 bomber intrigues me some to round out exotics.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm on a #6, #9, #10 exacta box in race 9 at Saratoga.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm on a #6, #9, #10 exacta box in race 9 at Saratoga.

I meant #6, #9, #11. Doesn't matter, though. Wasn't even close.

 

[Sharkey]

Playing some $1 trifectas in this next race at Penn National with; 1,10 / 1,7,10 / 1,2,5,7,10

 

[Sharkey]

Hell has just frozen over I do believe.

 

[Sharkey]

Hitting a measely 27/1 trifecta has never felt so good.

Alright, what's the next track that wants some of this? Huh?

 

[Sharkey]

A $1 super with the #10 over #1, #2, #5, #9 in this cheap claiming race coming up next at Evangeline Downs.

 

[Sharkey]

Look at this guy. Hits a chalky trifecta and now thinks he can get away with keying a current 12/1 shot on top of a super. The nerve I tells ya.

 

[Sharkey]

I am keying that horse based on inside info you know. That being inside info that I've basically pulled out of my ass.

 

[Sharkey]

#2, #9, #5, #10 was the order of that last one. Basically the public nailed it with those being the top 4 choices in order. The super was a pretty terrible 120/1 considering it was a 10 horse field.