Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

You're old as hell dude. You must have had a pretty cool old man. Never knew mine. Don't know why he wasn't in the picture but eh. Whatever.

A lot of experience is in your court wow. I've only been capping MMA for about 9 months now. I get by, mostly by livebetting lol. Had to establish rules. Degen betting plays in the non-mma section has gotten my bankroll into so much trouble I had to start making rules. All in all it's a fun game to play and if I burn out I burn out. I started with like 200$ and have made my way upto 2k so I've gotta be doing something right. I like seeing the success in here though. Ya'll are smart people. Embrace the grind and make that money.

"Discipline...it's the only God that wealth and power bow to. To the majority, it resembles a ball and chain that shackles; to the minority, it's a throne. To most, it's as elusive as a disappearing mist; to a few, it's their finest outer garment. The forefather of discipline is pain, adversity and failure. It's lessons learned and experiences that taught. It flies on wings of steel, an unalterable course that gives full meaning to that destination called life. Its pathways are as straight as an arrow; its impact is as sure as an arrow to the heart.

At its dawning, discipline is rooted in pain; yet by the evening its reward is pleasure. Those who reject discipline, accept the momentary pleasure of being undisciplined, while not knowing that their pain arrives in the evening...remaining there as a constant companion.

Before you decide to gamble...go make an unassailable covenant with discipline. To do so will make you an unbeatable foe; the hunter, not the hunted; the stalker, not the prey. And know this! Bravado in the heart of a gambler without discipline is nothing more than an application for slavery...a resume submitted by the foolish."


I don't remember where I got that quote from, but I copied it down this spring. But it sounds like you have that part of the gambling lesson down already, which is great for you. It's huge. Sometimes I have it and when I do my account goes up. Too often I don't, though, and the opposite happens. I started this account with $500, made over a grand in profit after a really strong April and May, and then put the original $500 back in. Hit a couple of nice bets a week or two ago and got it over $900, but this past week has been a real struggle for me. Now my account is sitting at $234. A lot of that has to do with a lack of discipline and not being as selective as I was this spring. With as cold as I've been t past week the smart disciplined thing for me to do is to back off and be more selective in what I wager on. Or take a break entirely. But I've also took the time to learn and develop a couple of new pace angles that I think will benefit me in the future as well based on the research I've done the past few days, so it's not an entire loss. What's that saying @t6p stole from Kenny Florian? "We either win or we learn" or something like that? I'm always learning win or lose no matter how long I've been playing. Always trying to develop something that will help me out. Like you say, gambling is a long term investment. Highs and lows are a part of even the best of them.

 

[Sharkey]

Late Early Third shows improvement in 129 of 178 (72.4%) races I've looked at so far for an average improvement of 5.4 points on the figures. There were 26 of them who improved by 20+ points and 12 improved by 30+. There was only two regressions of more than 10 points, with the largest being 12.

Early Late Third was mediocre in comparison. 69 of 157 (43.9%) with an average regression of 1.6 points.

Not that any of you guys know what that means yet, but you know that I do like my pace pattern angles and using them to predict future improvement/regression with these horses.

I've also been researching double regression (a positive for 42 of 68), and double improvement ( a huge negative...so far 54 of 68 regressed 3rd time out) with pace figures, but the sample size isn't as large as the other ones so far. Plus, a lot of those who improved off a double regression couldn't help but improve with their last race being so bad.

Late Early Third.

I chalked down down a few horses earlier today to keep track of that would fit this angle and also appeared to be contenders on paper. Didn't do the numbers for the races, though, seeing as how I wasn't going to bet them. Yet anyways. Just wanted to observe a little since I only uncovered this yesterday.

==========

Race 8 at Saratoga (2:02) - #5 Vortex Road 7/2
Race 6 at Del Mar (4:33) - #1 Save Ground 3/1
Race 8 at Del Mar (5:33) - #2 Colormemoney 12/1
Race 9 at Evangeline (7:34) - #5 Chickoree 6/1

===========

The first horse listed finished 2nd by a length. the 2nd horse listed finished 2nd by a head. Meh, no biggie. They were both short prices anyways, so they were predicted to run well regardless. The 3rd horse I had listed, though, won his race at Del Mat by a couple of lengths and paid out at 20/1 in the process.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 4 at Assiniboia Downs - #6 Mi Hossenda 5/1 (17.7% = 5/1 fair odds) (NPT)

In with it being 10/1 with a minute to post. In addition to the new pace top angle this one's last race was the high early, low late which I've noticed played well regardless of where they were in the form cycle.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 7 at Canterbury - #6 Johnny the Jet 9/2 (26.2% = 3/1 fair odds)

Race 9 at Evangeline - #5 Chickoree 6/1


$5 win bets on both of guys for me. My wife just got home from her little vacation. Plus the races could be ran on top of each other, so I'll just take the odds I get.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

"Discipline...it's the only God that wealth and power bow to. To the majority, it resembles a ball and chain that shackles; to the minority, it's a throne. To most, it's as elusive as a disappearing mist; to a few, it's their finest outer garment. The forefather of discipline is pain, adversity and failure. It's lessons learned and experiences that taught. It flies on wings of steel, an unalterable course that gives full meaning to that destination called life. Its pathways are as straight as an arrow; its impact is as sure as an arrow to the heart.

At its dawning, discipline is rooted in pain; yet by the evening its reward is pleasure. Those who reject discipline, accept the momentary pleasure of being undisciplined, while not knowing that their pain arrives in the evening...remaining there as a constant companion.

Before you decide to gamble...go make an unassailable covenant with discipline. To do so will make you an unbeatable foe; the hunter, not the hunted; the stalker, not the prey. And know this! Bravado in the heart of a gambler without discipline is nothing more than an application for slavery...a resume submitted by the foolish."


I don't remember where I got that quote from, but I copied it down this spring. But it sounds like you have that part of the gambling lesson down already, which is great for you. It's huge. Sometimes I have it and when I do my account goes up. Too often I don't, though, and the opposite happens. I started this account with $500, made over a grand in profit after a really strong April and May, and then put the original $500 back in. Hit a couple of nice bets a week or two ago and got it over $900, but this past week has been a real struggle for me. Now my account is sitting at $234. A lot of that has to do with a lack of discipline and not being as selective as I was this spring. With as cold as I've been t past week the smart disciplined thing for me to do is to back off and be more selective in what I wager on. Or take a break entirely. But I've also took the time to learn and develop a couple of new pace angles that I think will benefit me in the future as well based on the research I've done the past few days, so it's not an entire loss. What's that saying @t6p stole from Kenny Florian? "We either win or we learn" or something like that? I'm always learning win or lose no matter how long I've been playing. Always trying to develop something that will help me out. Like you say, gambling is a long term investment. Highs and lows are a part of even the best of them.

Whoa sorry about your cold streak there bub. Like you say though it happens to very best of us too. I dont take gambling ultra super seriously it's much more of a hobby than it is a way of making extra income. Thank you for the advice though man that's kind of you. The forum could use more helpful dudes like you around shark.

 

[t6p]

What's that saying @t6p stole from Kenny Florian? "We either win or we learn" or something like that?

Haha, I actually laughed out loud at that one Shark.

Quick question for ya too bud. How did you say you're accessing the PPs now?

 

[Sharkey]

Haha, I actually laughed out loud at that one Shark.

Quick question for ya too bud. How did you say you're accessing the PPs now?

By clicking this link, T, if you're looking for the Travers;

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html


If looking for any PP's go to this same site;

http://www.trks2day.com/trks2day.html

Click on what race you want to look at, and if it blocks you from directly viewing them like it does for me, just click on the address bar up top til it turns blue and then hit the enter key. They should come up for you. Let me know either way.

 

[Sharkey]

Late Early Third shows improvement in 129 of 178 (72.4%) races I've looked at so far for an average improvement of 5.4 points on the figures. There were 26 of them who improved by 20+ points and 12 improved by 30+. There was only two regressions of more than 10 points, with the largest being 12.

Early Late Third was mediocre in comparison. 69 of 157 (43.9%) with an average regression of 1.6 points.

Not that any of you guys know what that means yet, but you know that I do like my pace pattern angles and using them to predict future improvement/regression with these horses.

I've also been researching double regression (a positive for 42 of 68), and double improvement ( a huge negative...so far 54 of 68 regressed 3rd time out) with pace figures, but the sample size isn't as large as the other ones so far. Plus, a lot of those who improved off a double regression couldn't help but improve with their last race being so bad.

Uncovered another potential pace angle last night with some research.

High Low Second.

Found 71 horses who fit the particulars of this angle and out of those 49 improved in their next race (69%), and the 71 in total produced an average of a 3.6 point improvement on their final figure from one race to the next. 17 of them jumped up at least 10 points and 10 of them jumped up 20+ points. Only two regressed more than 10 points off of it. Not the greatest sample size, but something for me to keep an eye on and test out. Could be a good one.

 

[Sharkey]

I only cashed on one bet yesterday, but it was the last one I made, so I'm on a one race winning streak. I'm counting that as a hot streak with the way my luck has been going lately.

I'm being really selective today since I don't want to burn through my account before I get to Saturday. I'd rather not do it then either, but hey. I at least want to play the Travers card without having to deposit more in there.

==========

Race 8 at Saratoga - #5 Zenato 6/1 (NPT, E2, HLS) (17.1% = 5/1 fair odds)

Race 5 at Charles Town - #2 Talento 4/1 (NPT, E2, HLS) (20.1% = 4/1 fair odds)

==========

 

[Sharkey]

I also did the numbers for the Travers as well this morning, although I'll defer to @t6p if he comes up with some ideas for it;

==========

#9 Good Magic 2/1 - 578.6
#10 Tenfold 8/1 - 557.0 (HLS)
#4 Bravazo 12/1 - 552.6
#11 Catholic Boy 8/1 - 551.0
#5 Vino Rosso 10/1 - 548.2
#3 Gronkowski 4/1 - 528.6 (estimate based in part on international ratings)
#2 Wonder Gadot 5/1 - 521.0
#1 Trigger Warning 30/1 - 519.8
#7 King Zachary 15/1 - 504.6
#8 Mendelssohn 12/1 - 455.8
#6 Meistermind 30/1 - 442.6

==========

 

[t6p]

By clicking this link, T, if you're looking for the Travers;

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html


If looking for any PP's go to this same site;

http://www.trks2day.com/trks2day.html

Click on what race you want to look at, and if it blocks you from directly viewing them like it does for me, just click on the address bar up top til it turns blue and then hit the enter key. They should come up for you. Let me know either way.

Thanks, Shark. Yup I was looking for the Travers and I was using that same site you shared with me a while back but I was having the same problem. Strange that it doesn't load properly the first time. Oh well, easy enough workaround.

 

[t6p]

I also did the numbers for the Travers as well this morning, although I'll defer to @t6p if he comes up with some ideas for it;

==========

#9 Good Magic 2/1 - 578.6
#10 Tenfold 8/1 - 557.0 (HLS)
#4 Bravazo 12/1 - 552.6
#11 Catholic Boy 8/1 - 551.0
#5 Vino Rosso 10/1 - 548.2
#3 Gronkowski 4/1 - 528.6 (estimate based in part on international ratings)
#2 Wonder Gadot 5/1 - 521.0
#1 Trigger Warning 30/1 - 519.8
#7 King Zachary 15/1 - 504.6
#8 Mendelssohn 12/1 - 455.8
#6 Meistermind 30/1 - 442.6

==========

I was going to try to run the numbers myself but it looks like you're way ahead of me bud. Probably for the best since I know you've added plenty to the version of the formula that I have.

Anyway, when I first glanced at the morning lines, my thought was that Gronkowski was probably overvalued and it looks like the numbers back that up. He did ruin my trifecta in the Belmont, but unless you say otherwise, I think I'll be keeping him out of my exactas/tris/supers in this race. It looks like this could potentially be a good race for betting. I'm going to take a closer look before I bounce some ideas around in here.

 

[Sharkey]

Just want to showcase a couple of horses that I bet last December and their pace figures heading into a couple of races. Listed in order as their E1-E2-LP and then their final SPD figure;

==========

Horse named I'll Take the Cake, who broke from the outside post in a 7F sprint back on Dec 10th at Woodbine;

89-95-63 and 71
87-86-84 and 81
---layoff---
78-78-90 and 78
87-85-81 and 75
82-77-90 and 79
75-72-74 and 71
83-94-53 and 61
85-89-76 and 74
79-85-72 and 75
72-83-84 and 69

This horse entered the race that day with a new pace top. Fit my E2 angle having increased that figure by a significant margin compared to it's recent races and was still early in it's form cycle. It also fit the late early third angle I uncovered a couple of days ago with the horse having just increased it's E1 figure and decreased it's LP figure in it's 2nd start off the layoff over it's 1st start off the layoff. It went into this race off a 10 point regression, but that's not too concerning since it was so early in the horse's form cycle and it was just coming off it's best race of it's career previously. It's form before that last race was on the upswing. The final figures were getting faster and she had hit the board in each of her previous 4 races, winning two of them.

This horse left the gates at 96/1

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/can/wo/2017/12/10/11/race-11-alw-at-wo-on-12-10-17

Lost by only a head margin in finishing 2nd, but paid 36/1 to place and 16/1 to show despite coming just short at the line.

==========

 

[Sharkey]

==========

Horse named Lady Marmaduke, who also broke from the outside post in a 6F sprint race at Mahoning Valley last Dec 12th;

74-70-55 and 58
56-53-76 and 58
---layoff---
63-45-82 and 60
70-63-84 and 62
59-47-71 and 54
59-47-71 and 54
61-54-68 and 57
73-62-73 and 53
66-52-65 and 54
66-70-59 and 48

Entered that Dec 12th race with a new pace top. Fit the E2 angle, as well as this new late early third angle I found myself. Improving form with her 4 best races having been her 4 more recent ones. And entered the race having pair up the final figures of her last two.

She left the gates that day as the longest shot in the race at 46/1, and while I can't link the video;

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/mvr/2017/12/12/2/race-2-msw-at-mvr-on-12-12-17

Paid $94.20 for every $2 bet on her.

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=MVR&raceDate=12/12/2017&cy=USA&rn=2

==========

 

[Sharkey]

I was going to try to run the numbers myself but it looks like you're way ahead of me bud. Probably for the best since I know you've added plenty to the version of the formula that I have.

Anyway, when I first glanced at the morning lines, my thought was that Gronkowski was probably overvalued and it looks like the numbers back that up. He did ruin my trifecta in the Belmont, but unless you say otherwise, I think I'll be keeping him out of my exactas/tris/supers in this race. It looks like this could potentially be a good race for betting. I'm going to take a closer look before I bounce some ideas around in here.

You know, I'd actually be curious what you come up with using one of the old systems, T. Shit, I've made so many changes to it since we worked on this together last that I don't even remember what it used to be anymore. Only if you have the time, though.

And of course sharing any additional thoughts are always good.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 8 at Del Mar (5:33) - #2 Colormemoney 12/1

This guy who won his race yesterday at 20/1 fit my new late early third angle I came up with recently. Entered yesterday's race making his 3rd start off a layoff after having improved his E1 rating figure in his last start by 4 points and while regressing 11 points on his LP figure. He regressed 15 points on his overall final figure when compared to his previous race, but that was to be expected since he had just ran the best race of his career in his 1st start off the layoff. In fact that race off the layoff was the best race anybody in the field had ran considering track conditions. This horse also had a similar pattern in his previous form cycle where he ran a high final figure, regressed 18 points in his next race with a high E1 figure included, and then improved his final figure by 11 points in his 3rd race of the sequence after that. That same 11 point improvement after his regressive race last time made him as fast as anybody's best in yesterday's race, yet he had already ran faster. He also entered yesterday's race first off the claim and was now in the hands of a better trainer than he had previously, which is obviously a plus.

 

[t6p]

You know, I'd actually be curious what you come up with using one of the old systems, T. Shit, I've made so many changes to it since we worked on this together last that I don't even remember what it used to be anymore. Only if you have the time, though.

And of course sharing any additional thoughts are always good.

I ran the numbers on your top 5 ranked horses are here's what I came up with:

Good Magic - 505.25
Bravazo - 504.05
Vino Rosso - 500
Catholic Boy - 496.95
Tenfold - 485.05

It seems like the post bias for Vino Rosso and Bravazo (20% vs 0% for the other three horses) is making a massive difference here.

 

[Sharkey]

All these pace pattern concepts I use follow the same general principle. Horses that are getting sharp in their current form cycle will usually show it for the first half or two-thirds of their previous race. On dirt that's when the real running of a race almost always happens as they're usually ran fast early, slow late. They may not have the overall conditioning to sustain their speed late in the race because they're not in peak form yet (or a good race two back took some of the steam out of them). But because they show that they can at least run good pace figures through it shows that they have some conditioning in them that should tighten them up for their next start.

Late Early Third.

1st start off the layoff the horse runs lesser early pace figures for two-thirds of the race because he's not in the condition to run fast early yet, and then shows a little life or sustainability in it's late pace figure. Okay, he only had to do any sort of running for at most one-third of the race and that was when the rest of the field had slowed down considerably.

2nd start off a layoff the horse is sharper and in better condition having ran in that previous race. Thus shows more life in it's early pace figures than he did his previous start when most of the field is trying to show their speed, and is able to sustain that speed for more of the race than he did in his 1st start off the layoff. But he's not quite in peak condition yet so he slows down some late in the race compared to his previous start. But the increased early pace he ran should open the lungs up some and set him up for his next race.

3rd start off the layoff. That's when everything comes together. The horse is sharp, conditioned to peak from it's first two races off the layoff, and is ready to fire it's best race of it's form cycle. Boom! 50/1 baby!

Well, that's how it's supposed to work in principle anyways. But hey, 129 of 178 (72.5%) of the horses I looked at improved their final figures of their current form cycle with this pattern, so there must be something to it, right?

 

[Sharkey]

I ran the numbers on your top 5 ranked horses are here's what I came up with:

Good Magic - 505.25
Bravazo - 504.05
Vino Rosso - 500
Catholic Boy - 496.95
Tenfold - 485.05

It seems like the post bias for Vino Rosso and Bravazo (20% vs 0% for the other three horses) is making a massive difference here.

There's only been two races at this 10F distance so far this meet, T. I'm going to take a wild guess and say that's not nearly enough data. Haha. Sorry.

You basically have what I have if that was subtracted.

 

[t6p]

There's only been two races at this 10F distance so far this meet, T. I'm going to take a wild guess and say that's not nearly enough data. Haha. Sorry.

You basically have what I have if that was subtracted.

Haha, I did notice that. I figured that's what you were going to say but I wanted to run it by you anyway.