Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

This #2 horse in race 6 at Saratoga has a tremendous pace and race pattern. Both the LET and E2 angles with having paired up it's last two final figures without producing a top effort while doing so. 5/2 is tempting, but have a feeling it gets all the late money.
 
This #2 horse in race 6 at Saratoga has a tremendous pace and race pattern. Both the LET and E2 angles with having paired up it's last two final figures without producing a top effort while doing so. 5/2 is tempting, but have a feeling it gets all the late money.

Finally made a good decision for once with that one only managing 2nd after it did get bet down late.
 
Taking a small shot with the #3 Southern Fried Run in the 7th race at Finger Lakes. Has the back class and speed to compete. Plus it has the LET angle I'm looking into. I also think the heavy favourite may be on a regressive pattern having ran her peak effort in her cycle two races back. Still dangerous with further regression, though.
 
Enjoy having just barely gotten your 1/9 shot home in the last stride, fuckers.
 
Not betting, but very curious to see how the #1 Black Salt runs in this 7th race at Indiana Grand. It's way up against it to win or even hit the board. But that's why it's 70/1 currently.
 
Race 8 at Thistledown - #8 Tensas Tough 8/1 (15.7% = 5/1 fair odds)

I have this one's fair odds at 9/2 now with the two scratches and it's currently sitting at 30/1 with 10 mins to post. That will come down as they get closer to post, but will still be a longshot based on will-pays. Going across the board here, and then also playing a small #2, #5, #6, #8 trifecta box since it's a 10 horse field.
 
3rd at 8/1 gets me a little measely show bet back. The #11 finishing 2nd screwed my trifecta.
 
Race 2 at Penn National - #9 Edfitzatmahle'sbar 5/1 (20.9% = 4/1 fair odds)

Too low for me to bet with him at 5/2 with 2 mins to post and likely to go off as favourite when leaving the gates. Which means he'll probably win like he's a 2/5 shot since I'm not betting him.
 
Race 2 at Penn National - #9 Edfitzatmahle'sbar 5/1 (20.9% = 4/1 fair odds)

Too low for me to bet with him at 5/2 with 2 mins to post and likely to go off as favourite when leaving the gates. Which means he'll probably win like he's a 2/5 shot since I'm not betting him.

Played #9 over #7, #11 in a couple of exactas instead.
 
My exacta got beat by a 15/1 new pace top horse that I had ranked 5th of 11 on the numbers, but only a few points out of 3rd.
 
How'd you get into the ponies there shark? You're pretty damn good at this lol. I read through here a lot but I don't tail picks or anything. Rule #1 of mine "Gambling on sports you have no interest in and don't follow is degenerate. Don't do it.". I like the comradery in here.
 
How'd you get into the ponies there shark? You're pretty damn good at this lol. I read through here a lot but I don't tail picks or anything. Rule #1 of mine "Gambling on sports you have no interest in and don't follow is degenerate. Don't do it.". I like the comradery in here.

Ah, I go way back, N. My dad was a big fan of all sorts of racing (cars, ponies, etc) back when I was growing up and it passed on to me. This is going back almost 40 years now. I've always been a fan, but didn't really start capping until the early 90's when I used to go to Assiniboia Downs in Winnipeg on occasion. It really wasn't until 2004/05 when I started capping more regularly, though, and it's only been over the last year when I've started capping all levels of racing at whatever tracks are running that day.

That's a great rule you have. I learned that one the hard way about a decade ago when I had a sportsbook account and was betting every sport under the sun. Terribly at that. I also personally have trouble tailing others picks too. I think the only two guys I have tailed outright on here (or anywhere) were @t6p and @BluntTrauma21, but that's because they were giving out picks based on a system we all helped developed together so the trust was there. I do always look at races/picks other people post on here, though, especially on turf. If I see some reasoning I'll tail the pick in a sense on occasion. The fun for me is doing my own capping, coming up with unique angles, and looking at races differently than others do. Unless you're just extremely lucky with who and when you bet, it's virtually impossible making money in this game using the same handicapping methods most others use. Original and unique ways of capping races is essential or else you just wind up playing the same horses every one else does and losing in the process.
 
One thing that sucks about this formula I use is that after all the additions and tweaks I've made to it over the last 6 months or so it's been identifying horses that the public end up liking as well in most cases. It still does a fantastic job of identifying false favourites, and still finds some longshots that should and do run well. Whether I make smart decisions when making wagers around them is another matter, though. I've been mostly terrible the past week in that regards. Good wager structuring is just as important as good capping. And my luck has sucked shit too recently losing out on some great payouts by a nose here, a whisker there, a neck, a half length, etc.
 
Race 7 at Presque Isle - Humorous Chant 9/2 (18.8% = 9/2 fair odds)

But I have my girl here coming up in less than an hour to change my luck around. She's never done me wrong yet when I've bet her.
 
Race 7 at Presque Isle - Humorous Chant 9/2 (18.8% = 9/2 fair odds)

But I have my girl here coming up in less than an hour to change my luck around. She's never done me wrong yet when I've bet her.

Thinking a #1, #2, #3 exacta and trifecta box that race. The speed of the speed of the speed of the speed thrown in there with the two of the three longest shots in the race who also happen to be the only two pure closers in the race. My numbers have the #5 on top of the #3 by 16 points, but the #5 is going to be the favourite and has seen a slow decline in her numbers recently. I'd say she fired her peak effort this form cycle already and with this being her 7th start of it, it's hard seeing her get back to a top effort at this point. There's also a concern with her running style and preferred position. Her best races come when she is sitting fairly close to the pace and within 2 length of the lead. That's a concern for the #5 if Humorous Chant has her running shoes on today. The #5's best races have also come when she's allowed to run early pace figures in the 80's. When forced to run in the 90's she has either finished 2nd on a couple of occasions or has missed the board entirely on a few others. Most of Humorous Chant's early pace figures recently are in the 100's. The #5 is either going to have to drop way back and use a style she's not accustomed to, which maybe she can. Or forced to sit close to an early pace she won't keep up with. But at 6/5 on the morning line I'm seeing plenty of reasons to play against.

The #4 and #7 are the other two shorter prices and both look like need the lead types who are a combined 0-1-2 in 8 starts on their pages when they don't get the early lead. They're a combined 0-0-1 in 4 starts when forced to run an E1 or E2 of 100 or more in one section. They'll be trying to chase Humorous Chant and I doubt that's going to work out well for either of them based on their own history, and the other horses who have tried to do the same to Humorous Chant. If she is ready to run she is likely running both of their feet just like she does with every other horse that tries to stay even remotely close to her early.

The #6 sucks basically. That leaves the #1 and the #2. Both closers who won't be anywhere close to Humorous Chant early and have the best late pace figures in the race (okay on the numbers as well). That's who I want to use knowing how almost all of Humorous Chants races play out. The #5 may factor if she changes things up style-wise, but I can easily see this coming down to the #1, #2, and #3 late in the race just because of th3e pace dynamics Humorous Chant is going to present.
 
The exacta box for $2, trifecta box for $1, and then a $2 win bet on Humorous Chant just for the hell of it, and to make it an even $20 wagered. She's currently 6/5 with my fair odds on her at 9/2, but I'll make this one time exception for her.
 
Somebody let me know when this race is done. I'm rolling one up and stepping outside. I can't watch this.
 
Ah shit. #5, #2, #1 was the order. Bummer.

Add another horse to my shit list. Now it's all filled up. No more room since every single race horse out there is on it.
 
Race 8 at Presque Isle - #9 Mini's Shoes 8/1 (14.6% = 6/1 fair odds)

Pretty sure I get fair odds on this one (10/1 currently, 5th choice in doubles), so I'm in.
 
Ah, I go way back, N. My dad was a big fan of all sorts of racing (cars, ponies, etc) back when I was growing up and it passed on to me. This is going back almost 40 years now. I've always been a fan, but didn't really start capping until the early 90's when I used to go to Assiniboia Downs in Winnipeg on occasion. It really wasn't until 2004/05 when I started capping more regularly, though, and it's only been over the last year when I've started capping all levels of racing at whatever tracks are running that day.

That's a great rule you have. I learned that one the hard way about a decade ago when I had a sportsbook account and was betting every sport under the sun. Terribly at that. I also personally have trouble tailing others picks too. I think the only two guys I have tailed outright on here (or anywhere) were @t6p and @BluntTrauma21, but that's because they were giving out picks based on a system we all helped developed together so the trust was there. I do always look at races/picks other people post on here, though, especially on turf. If I see some reasoning I'll tail the pick in a sense on occasion. The fun for me is doing my own capping, coming up with unique angles, and looking at races differently than others do. Unless you're just extremely lucky with who and when you bet, it's virtually impossible making money in this game using the same handicapping methods most others use. Original and unique ways of capping races is essential or else you just wind up playing the same horses every one else does and losing in the process.
You're old as hell dude. You must have had a pretty cool old man. Never knew mine. Don't know why he wasn't in the picture but eh. Whatever.

A lot of experience is in your court wow. I've only been capping MMA for about 9 months now. I get by, mostly by livebetting lol. Had to establish rules. Degen betting plays in the non-mma section has gotten my bankroll into so much trouble I had to start making rules. All in all it's a fun game to play and if I burn out I burn out. I started with like 200$ and have made my way upto 2k so I've gotta be doing something right. I like seeing the success in here though. Ya'll are smart people. Embrace the grind and make that money.
 
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