Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

#3 Tenfold trained by Asmussen
#4 Dream Baby Dream trained by Asmussen
#9 Combatant trained by Asmussen

This shit has been bugging me all morning. Both Dream Baby Dream and Combatant are off the pace types who are both on the bubble to making it into the Derby field. Either or both will do it with a top 3 finish tomorrow. Tenfold, who is owned by the same people who own Combatant, is a promising type who won his two races. The first by sitting on the lead the whole way. The 2nd by sitting just behind the leaders. He`s also a well bred type, who earned decent figures for those first two races of his. But I also think he`s a horse that looks better on paper than he does visually. Lots of choppiness and wasted movements to his stride. He should have also put away the horse who finished 2nd to him much easier than he did (by a neck) I thought since he was tracking that one and another who were pressuring each other the whole way.

So is Tenfold in the Arkansas Derby to try to win the race? Or...?

We know Asmussen isn't shy about entering a "rabbit" of sorts in a race if it's in the best interests of another horse he has entered. This time he'd have two that would seemingly benefit from a fast or contested pace up front in the early going.

Maybe the hint lies in the jockey assignments, yeah? Ricardo Santana, who is Asmussen's main rider, has ridden Tenfold in both of his career starts and has also ridden Combatant in each of his last five starts. Santana chose Combatant for tomorrow's race instead of the other horse who appears to have more "upside" on paper of the two. Why is that? Does he know something as far as "strategy" goes? Victor Espinoza gets the ride on Tenfold, and Espinoza is well known for being an early speed rider who demands his horse sit up close or on the early pace. He's also someone who rarely, if ever, rides for Asmussen. Then you have Dream Baby Dream who was assigned Luis Contreras (rode him once before), who's best known for his ability to ride off the pace types, and is one of the better ones in the US with those types of horses.

I may be wrong, but my gut is telling me that Tenfold isn't in it to win it, and is in there to instead ensure that Asmussen has a chance at having two in the gates in a few weeks, and giving the owners their best chance of having at least one. This isn't as obvious as some "trainer intent" calls. But I have to trust my gut on this one.


Arkansas Derby;

- #4 Dream Baby Dream 15/1 to win/place for $10/$20
- #6 Magnum Moon over #4 Dream Baby Dream, #9 Combatant over #4 Dream Baby Dream, #9 Combatant in a pair of $10 exactas and a pair of $5 trifectas

I prefer Dream Baby Dream over Combatant just because the former seems better equipped to handle the 9F distance tomorrow, as he has improved his figures each time the race distances have gotten longer, has already shown he could get 9F well when 2nd in the Sunland Derby, and also because I think he has a better turn of foot, at least equal agility for the turns, and has more length in his stride than Combatant. And will be a much better price.


No calculators this time. Just some good old fashioned handicapping. The fun kind.

 

[Sharkey]

Who else is Asmussen sending out tomorrow? I'll bet them all. Well, besides that slow ass turd named Lookin At Lee that is. I see he's running in the Oaklawn Handicap.

 

[Sharkey]

Asmussen stands a very good chance to have two in the Derby gates if a fast pace develops tomorrow. He stands a very good chance to have zero in the Derby gates if a fast pace doesn't develop.

I'm going to play the Arkansas Derby like it's as simple as that.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p

I should probably be boxing those three horses, right? I'd be screwed and so pissed at myself if Combatant won, Magnum Moon finished 2nd, and Dream Baby Dream finished 3rd.

 

[t6p]

@t6p

I should probably be boxing those three horses, right? I'd be screwed and so pissed at myself if Combatant won, Magnum Moon finished 2nd, and Dream Baby Dream finished 3rd.

I sure would. Maybe reduce your stake on each if you don't want to risk so much. But with a potential 15/1 and 6/1 in there (probably won't go off at those prices, I know) it would be painful to miss out because you didn't box them.

 

[Sharkey]

I sure would. Maybe reduce your stake on each if you don't want to risk so much. But with a potential 15/1 and 6/1 in there (probably won't go off at those prices, I know) it would be painful to miss out because you didn't box them.

I was thinking about boxing them for $8 and $2. That would be $60 total just there, and then maybe bumping up my straight bets on Dream Baby Dream some as well. Maybe go $20/$30 with him. I think I'll get every bit of 6/1 and 15/1 on those two horses. I could see 10/1 and then north of 20/1 for them. Lots of people are seemingly going to play Tenfold or Quip as the alternative to the top two choices.

After that I was thinking maybe $15/$25 on Ego Trip in the Northern Spur and then play a $10 exacta with Title Ready over him as well.

That's $160 in total, which would leave me $2 in my account to back Justify with in the Derby. Haha. But seriously, what I have in my account wouldn't be enough to bet the Derby anyways, so I may as well take my shot tomorrow.

 

[Sharkey]

One early middle move at about the 0:50 mark of the video. And then another late middle move at around the 1:10 mark. Dream Baby Dream earned an E2 pace rating significantly higher than his last two races, and the highest he earned since running the same E2 in a sprint race back in January. Two middle moves and an elevated E2 in the Sunland Derby. While going 5 and 6 wide around the turns. At elevation. If anything he should be 100% fit tomorrow, and the fact that he was wheeled back 3 weeks later suggests that, as it does suggest confidence that they have themselves a Derby horse. A great main/slight improvement pattern to his figures, which each improvement coming as the distances get longer. Is very likely the best closer in the race tomorrow as far as turning on and maintaining that late kick for the distance of tomorrow's race. And, if my read is right, he will be getting pace help upfront courtesy of his uncoupled stablemate.

 

[Sharkey]

"It's Dream Baby Dream by a length as they hit the eighth pole! By two lengths! Dream Baby Dream is now opening up by four lengths! It's all Dream Baby Dream as he takes the Arkansas Derby by five lengths in a 22/1 shocker!"

Yep.

 

[Sharkey]

There's another 3 year-old stakes race on the undercard which looks quite interesting (the Northern Spur), and which features Title Ready as the probably heavy favourite. But I'm likely to try to beat him with the other Asmussen horse in the race, Ego Trip, who's 8/1 on the morning line. That one just broke his maiden in his last race at 9 furlongs in a race where he closed from the back third of the pack into a moderate (at best) pace. The horses that were sitting 1st, 2nd, 3rd early all finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th, so the race shape heavily favoured the early front runners. Ego Trip made a big run in the stretch, though, and did so with a very impressive turn of foot in only his 2nd lifetime start.

Race starts at the 11:00 mark;



The leader hit the mile mark in 1:38.42 and Ego Trip was still 3+ lengths back at the time. Ego Trip crossed the line in 1:51.04. That basically means that Ego Trip ran the last furlong in about 12 seconds flat earning a Brisnet late pace figure of 109. Now that is a closer. He should get a pace to run at on Satruday too with at least four horses in the race that do their best running while up close or on the early lead. As the most expensive horse in the race ($600k) he's expected to run very well in races like this too.

How good does Ego Trip look now after the way the 2nd and 3rd place finishes of his last race have ran today? The 3rd place finisher came back and lost a head bob at the wire in race 1 at Oaklawn today. The 2nd place finisher to Ego Trip just came back and won by open lengths in race 3. And again, those two had the race flow in their favour when facing Ego Trip last time and still couldn't beat him.

No chance of me getting 8/1 on him, though. Perhaps I'll be lucky to even get half of that.

 

[t6p]

I was thinking about boxing them for $8 and $2. That would be $60 total just there, and then maybe bumping up my straight bets on Dream Baby Dream some as well. Maybe go $20/$30 with him. I think I'll get every bit of 6/1 and 15/1 on those two horses. I could see 10/1 and then north of 20/1 for them. Lots of people are seemingly going to play Tenfold or Quip as the alternative to the top two choices.

After that I was thinking maybe $15/$25 on Ego Trip in the Northern Spur and then play a $10 exacta with Title Ready over him as well.

That's $160 in total, which would leave me $2 in my account to back Justify with in the Derby. Haha. But seriously, what I have in my account wouldn't be enough to bet the Derby anyways, so I may as well take my shot tomorrow.

I'm in.

Race 8: #7 Ego Trip to w/p + exacta box #7 Ego Trip, #1 Title Ready

Race 11: #4 Dream Baby Dream to w/p + exacta and trifecta boxes #4 Dream Baby Dream, #6 Magnum Moon, #9 Combatant

Let's do this Shark.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm in.

Race 8: #7 Ego Trip to w/p + exacta box #7 Ego Trip, #1 Title Ready

Race 11: #4 Dream Baby Dream to w/p + exacta and trifecta boxes #4 Dream Baby Dream, #6 Magnum Moon, #9 Combatant

Let's do this Shark.

I'll be playing the same, T, save for the exacta box in race 8. Just playing that straight as more of a defensive play. Hopefully you're not playing the same amounts I am, though.

 

[t6p]

I'll be playing the same, T, save for the exacta box in race 8. Just playing that straight as more of a defensive play. Hopefully you're not playing the same amounts I am, though.

I went 50% of what you're doing bud. Only because you're playing it so much bigger than what we usually do.

 

[Sharkey]

The #4 horse, La Key, looks okay at her 11/1 price here in race 5. She just beat the even money favourite 2 races ago, and didn't fall off form in her last race finishing 2nd by a half length.

I made $2 win bets on Asmussen horses in the first 3 races, and won 2 of them, so I'll play this one for $2 too just for the hell of it.

 

[Sharkey]

I went 50% of what you're doing bud. Only because you're playing it so much bigger than what we usually do.

Yeah, I'm going for it a bit today, T, and I'm not afraid to lose it. What's that old saying "scared money is...".

 

[Sharkey]

That 12/1 shot ran an okay 4th after getting squeezed after the start. The Asmussen horse won easily.

I'll go back to Asmussen here in race 6 with the #10 Will's Pioneer (4/1) for another casual $2 bet.

 

[Sharkey]

Asmussen has two in this next race. Both the #4 and the #10. Only question is which one of those two will win it.

 

[Sharkey]

Asmussen has two in this next race. Both the #4 and the #10. Only question is which one of those two will win it.

1st and 2nd with the #10 winning. Damn, I wished all my horses I bet on could get out the gates like that. He shot out of there like a cannon.

 

[Sharkey]

Ego Trip's race coming up next in about a half hour @t6p. Just a heads up in case you wanted to watch it. With your eyes closed.

The multi-race payouts say we should be looking at 4/1 or maybe 5/1. I'm fine with that.

 

[Sharkey]

Both Title Ready and Ego Trip look like the spend the day in the makeup room. One of them must be getting their picture taken after the race.

 

[Sharkey]

At least My Boy Jack won the Lexington thus keeping my future bet on him for the Derby alive.

Haven't seen any closers make up much ground at Oaklawn today, but the winners have also been logical horses.