Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Good stuff Shark, glad to see someone was able to take advantage. I got pulled away and wasn't able to bet the race. I'm actually going miss race 8 too, haha, but it was still a good exercise in using the new additions to the formula. Best of luck if you're going to give race 8 a try too.

Well, that's no fair, T. You do the work and someone else profits from it. I feel bad about that. Not bad enough to avoid betting race 8 too since the numbers are there, mind you. Haha. But still.

The #1 horse there was 5/1 when I put my bet in, which was just as they were about to load. The others were 4/1, 2/1, and 9/5 I think, so I just took the best odds. Some really late money came in on the #1 though, and it paid just north of 3/1.

Question for you, though. Did you use a 25 point cutoff or something? I was thinking about that last night actually that within 25 points seems to be the sweet spot for where the winners come from. Wished I would have saved the numbers for all the other races I did now, so I could review them.

 

[t6p]

Well, that's no fair, T. You do the work and someone else profits from it. I feel bad about that. Not bad enough to avoid betting race 8 too since the numbers are there, mind you. Haha. But still.

The #1 horse there was 5/1 when I put my bet in, which was just as they were about to load. The others were 4/1, 2/1, and 9/5 I think, so I just took the best odds. Some really late money came in on the #1 though, and it paid just north of 3/1.

Question for you, though. Did you use a 25 point cutoff or something? I was thinking about that last night actually that within 25 points seems to be the sweet spot for where the winners come from. Wished I would have saved the numbers for all the other races I did now, so I could review them.

You are absolutely the last person who should be worried about profiting from someone else's work after the countless hours you've put in sharing wisdom and picks in this thread. Those two races are nothing compared to all that bud.

I didn't do a hard cutoff, I just posted the top horses within what I thought was a reasonable range and didn't bother with the others. Unfortunately, I didn't save the numbers so I can't go back to look. I'll keep an eye out for how far off the top horse the winners are coming from in the future.

 

[Sharkey]

You are absolutely the last person who should be worried about profiting from someone else's work after the countless hours you've put in sharing wisdom and picks in this thread. Those two races are nothing compared to all that bud.

I didn't do a hard cutoff, I just posted the top horses within what I thought was a reasonable range and didn't bother with the others. Unfortunately, I didn't save the numbers so I can't go back to look. I'll keep an eye out for how far off the top horse the winners are coming from in the future.

Cheers T. Did you get through them okay time-wise? Like I was telling you and Blunt, the first few races I did were time consuming for me, but I get through them quite quickly now after doing a few.

I'm also thinking about using this formula and taking a stab at some multi-race wagering since it's done a really good job of indentifying longshots with the potential to run good races, and also seems to find the vulnerable favourites as well. Might be a better tool for horizontal wagering across multiple races rather than vertical wagering likes trifectas and such. Or useful for both if I wasn't such a dummy on a few occasions when we should have hit big yet didn't.

 

[t6p]

Cheers T. Did you get through them okay time-wise? Like I was telling you and Blunt, the first few races I did were time consuming for me, but I get through them quite quickly now after doing a few.

I'm also thinking about using this formula and taking a stab at some multi-race wagering since it's done a really good job of indentifying longshots with the potential to run good races, and also seems to find the vulnerable favourites as well. Might be a better tool for horizontal wagering across multiple races rather than vertical wagering likes trifectas and such. Or useful for both if I wasn't such a dummy on a few occasions when we should have hit big yet didn't.

It wasn't bad at all actually. For those two small fields I probably spent about 30 mins total, maybe a little bit less.

I don't think I've ever played a pick 3 or the like. That might be a good option though, since I seem to struggle sometimes with making the right last second calls based on the numbers.

 

[Sharkey]

It wasn't bad at all actually. For those two small fields I probably spent about 30 mins total, maybe a little bit less.

I don't think I've ever played a pick 3 or the like. That might be a good option though, since I seem to struggle sometimes with making the right last second calls based on the numbers.

Good to hear, T. I was worried that I was giving you guys too much to put into them, but 2 mins per horse is excellent for you just starting out.

Yeah, these last minute decisions can be a pain for us. Especially at smaller tracks like Mahoning Valley with small pools that change up so much in the last few minutes. I think I'm going to try some doubles and picks 3's tomorrow.

 

[Sharkey]

Aqueduct Race 8
-----------------------
#2 Spinyatta 455.6 - 8/5
#5 This Bird Can SIng 446.6 - 3/1
#1 Iwsihirish 430.3 - 10/1

Going to go with the #1 horse to win and place here for $2/$6, and then a straight $2 exacta with the #2 over the #1. The rail trip has looked very good in the few races I've watched at Aqueduct today, so there's that too. Also like that it's the best early speed horse over the best off the pace type, which is basic & simple handicapping 101 when betting exactas.

 

[Sharkey]

If you're going to lose that's the way to do it. Finished last.

 

[t6p]

If you're going to lose that's the way to do it. Finished last.

Yikes, I guess it’s good that I missed it.

 

[Sharkey]

Yikes, I guess it’s good that I missed it.

Those are pretty easy to take when it's a longshot that runs like that, T. At least for me it is. I still made a $10 profit on the two races you did today, so thanks for that.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 5 at Santa Anita coming up in a half hour;

==========

1- 426.1 Miss Pretty 6/1 *
2- 438.8 Silverspun Pickup 3/1 **
3- 415.8
4- 399.3
5- 408.2
6- 406.0
7- 448.8 Chiefs Lil Pearl 5/2 ***
8- (no number since it's been running in quarter horse races the last couple, and looks like a no-hoper anyways)

==========

 

[Sharkey]

Looks like it's going to be the speed of the speed for me from the rail at 11/1 currently on one of the more speed favouring tracks there is.

 

[t6p]

Looks like it's going to be the speed of the speed for me from the rail at 11/1 currently on one of the more speed favouring tracks there is.

Going win/place on the #1 and a little exacta box #1,#2 for fun

 

[Sharkey]

Went across the board on the #1 horse here, Miss Pretty, for $2/$4/$4.

 

[Sharkey]

Meh. Our longshot only managed 4th. Kicking myself now because I was going to bet the #2 to win and then bet the #1 to place up until the last couple minutes. Oh well.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 2 at Delta Downs coming up shortly here;

==========

1- 433.8 Might Intimidator 5/1 ***
2- 362.3
3- 368.3
4- 394.1
5- 429.5 Masster Chief Ron 8/1 **
6- 479.6 Bristol Rover 2/1 *****
7- 412.6
8- 420.3
9- 425.6 Rooster Bullet 12/1 *
10- 445.3 Wicked Rascal 7/2 ****

==========

 

[Sharkey]

I'm going to key the #6 horse here on top in supers with the other 4 horses for $1 each since he has a big edge on the numbers.

 

[Sharkey]

The #9 hitting the board at 17/1 would be ideal here, with my other four horses all sitting between 2/1 and 5/1.

 

[Sharkey]

Yep, that's my super right there. Got the longshot home 4th, so it should pay quite well.

 

[Sharkey]

#6, #5, #10, #9 was the order of finish.

 

[Sharkey]

$200 profit right there. Beautiful.