Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Green Gratto just took the Carter at 54/1. Crazy.

 

[Sharkey]

Battalion Runner sitting as the current 2/1 favourite in the Wood with 20 minutes to post. Mo Town, Cloud Computing and Irish War Cry all at 5/2. Stretch's Stone is 20/1.

 

[Sharkey]

1st - Irish War Cry
2nd - Battalion Runner
3rd - Cloud Computing

 

[Sharkey]

The maiden, Irap, wins the Blue Grass at 31/1. Awful race and that awful performance by Tapwrit means that I have no fucking idea who to back in the Derby next month.

 

[Sharkey]

Reach the World sitting as the clear 2/1 favourite with less than 20 minutes to post. Can't say I'm too surprised by that. Iliad the 2nd choice at 4/1. American Anthem is currently sitting at a nice 7/1.

 

[Sharkey]

1st - Gormley
2nd - Battle of Midway
3rd - Royal Mo

I take that back when I said we're going to see the Derby winner today. Three pretty awful prep races truth be told.

 

[Mga223]

Thanks to @Mga223 I've been paying a lot more attention to this gal's last couple of races. She's pretty incredible;

one of the best if not best ever IMO.

People are rating above black caviar now.

 

[Sharkey]

Not sure if the following can help anybody narrow the field down anymore when making their wagers, but here's some more stuff in regards to a horse's finishing position in their final prep and with some comparisons with the data I posted back on page 1;

- 10 of the last 16 Derby were won by a horse who had won their final prep
- 14 of the last Derby winners were won by a horse who finished in either 1st or 2nd in their final prep

Out of the two that didn't finish first or second, Giacomo and Mine That Bird, each were on a positive pattern for their racing careers going into the Derby. Giacomo had a combined BSF/BRIS of that was above 95 for his last prep (97.5), had maintain or improve pattern to that BSF/BRIS figure, and also had a late pace that was 95 or better in final prep (101). He just missed by 0.5 of having his best combined BSF/BRIS. He also had a positive thorograph pattern going into the race as well with a (P, P, P) pattern with the (P, P) pattern for his last two preps being tied with the (P, T) pattern as far as producing the most board hitters in the Derby over the last 34 years. Mine That Bird came into the Derby with a maintain or improve pattern to his BSF/BRIS numbers and also ran his best BSF/BRIS combined figure in his last race before the Derby. He also had a positive thorograph pattern as well with a (P, P, T) with the (P, T) pattern over his last two being tied with the (P, P) pattern for hitting the board, but has been the best pattern for the win spot itself. Both had an AWD of the dam sire side that was greater than the sire side if that stat deserves any credence


As far as hitting the board and filling out trifectas go;

- 29 of the 48 horses who hit the board in the last 16 Derbys came into the race after having won their final prep. 8 of 48 board hitters came in after having finished 2nd in their final prep

Out of the 19 horses that hit the board in the Derby after having failed to win their final prep, 6 of them ran a combined BSF/BRIS of 95 or better in their final prep, had a maintain or improve pattern to their BSF/BRIS figure, had run their best BSF/BRIS in their last race, and had a late pace figure of 95 or greater in it. Another 6 of them checked the boxes in three of those categories, while another 4 checked the boxes in two. As far as thorograph goes, 14 of those 19 that didn't win their prep entered the Derby after having run a P or T in their final prep. 13 of the 19 had a positive two race pattern going into the Derby whether that be a (PT), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P).

A combined BSF/BRIS in their final 9F of 95 or greater. A maintain or improve pattern to the combined BSF/BRIS number. Their best BSF/BRIS number coming in their final prep race at 9F. A Brisnet late pace figure of 95 or more in their final prep race at 9F. Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their last race but not drastically so. Have one of the four most positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P,T), (T, T), (P, P) or (T, P)*

- 9 of the last 16 Derby winners checked the boxes in five or six of those categories
- 15 of the last 16 Derby winners checked the boxes in at least three of them

For this year's runners;

- Exagerrator (6), Creator (6) and Gun Runner (5) check the boxes in at least five of those six categories
- Suddenbreakingnews (4), Nyquist (3), Outwork (3) and Trojan Nation (3) are the only other ones who check the boxes in three or more of those

*Of note, the (P, T) pattern over a horses' final two preps going into the Derby has produced 6 of the past 16 Derby winners, which is double what both the (T, T) and (P, P) patterns have done with those being tied for second most at 3 apiece in that span.

With only one prep race to go, that being the Arkansas Derby next week, it looks like, due to the process of elimination, the Sunland Derby winner, Hence, is going to be my Derby horse. Umm, Hence is going to be my Derby horse? It looks like it. Fucking Hence is going to be my Derby horse.

He finished 1st in his last prep. He's very likely to have a combined BSF/BRIS figure of 95 or greater considering he recieved a 93 BSF and BRIS numbers are usually at least a few points higher. He will have a maintain or improve pattern to his combined BSF/BRIS figure. His best combined BSF/BRIS figure would have come in his last race at 9F. Conisidering he was moving really well and pulling away at the end of the Sunland Derby odds are pretty great his BRIS late pace figure is above 95. He ran a new top on his thorograph sheet, and while 4 points is pushing it, it's still within range without being drastically improved. He'll be going into the Derby on a positive P, T, T pattern. He also covered the final furlong well below the 28 stride cutoff I'm going to use this year for the Derby with him only needing 26 strides to cover it after needing 25 early. And he's probably going to be at least 30/1 or so on Derby day.

Holy shit. Hence is going to be my Derby horse. Yikes.

 

[Sharkey]

- A combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final 9F prep of 95 or greater
- A maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure over the last 3 races going into the Derby
- Best combined BSF/BRIS came in their last prep at 9F
- Brisnet late pace figure of at least 95 in their final prep at 9F
- Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their final prep but not drastically so
- Having one of the four positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P, T), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep with 1st being preferred

I think those were the main angles we looked at last year going into the Derby, and I think it worked out okay since it profiled Exaggerator, Creator, Gun Runner, Suddenbreakingnews, and Nyquist as the best horses going into the Derby. The trifecta came from that group there, and with Suddenbreakingnews just missing 4th by a head, it almost produced the super. The horse that didn't run well in the Derby out of that group, Creator, got into bigtime trouble on the far turn that race and then came back and won the Belmont a month later. Overall, I'm happy with what that stuff showed even though I got shutout with my wagers last year. I'm gonna add one new category to the mix this year at least and it has to do with this stride stuff I've been looking at recently. With a new twist. Instead of just counting strides for the final furlong, I'm going to narrow it down to the final 1/16th just because I can get a better angle to compare horse and pole, thus getting a more accurate estimate. Then I'm going to turn that into how many feet a horse is covering with his stride over that final portion of the race. I went back and watched the prep races of all the Derby winners over the past 20 years and what I found was interesting. My new category is going to be;

- Showed a stride length of at least 23.5 feet at the end of their final prep race at 9F

18 of the past 20 Derby winners were showing that length in their stride at the end of their final prep with the two exceptions being Mine That Bird (22.8 feet) and Monarchos (23.1 feet). In the case of Monarchos he was able to show that 23.5 feet length in the Derby itself, with Mine That Bird coming very close in the Derby at 23.3 feet. Based on my estimations, American Pharoah showed the best stride length at the end of his final prep out of all the Derby winners during that time at 25.2 feet. Orb, Street Sense, Real Quiet, Barbaro, Chrome, Animal Kingdom were some of the other longer ones in the 24.5 foot range give or take a couple of points to either side. I may try to include as many 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Derby in that time as well. If it's possible.

For this year's crop, I've looked at 16 runners who have completed their final prep races and may run in the Derby. The majority of them so far have been sub 23 feet with even a few less than 22 feet (Battalion Runner at 21.6 feet, Practical Joke 21.7). I couldn't get a good enough look at horses like Tapwrit and Gunnevera just because they were off the screen during the final 1/16th of those races. But those two are going to profile like shit anyways with the above categories. Oh, and some turd who won a race at Sunland Park a couple of weeks ago tops the list as of now at 24.3 feet. He also got a 103 BRIS figure for that race as well, so his combined BSF/BRIS is going to be 98 going into the Derby. It's a given he'll also get a late pace figure of 95 or above. Basically this Sunland Park piece of turd is going to check in all those categories from above. And he's likely to be at least 30/1 come Derby day. Sheesh.

 

[Sharkey]

Last three combined BSF/BRIS figures from start 3rd back to most recent. (Brisnet late pace figure) is next. Thorograph figures from 3rd start back to most recent. (Thorograph pattern). After that comes the position they finished in their last race. Last is the estimated length of stride shown over the final 1/16th for their final prep race;

Always Dreaming: 87, 77.5, 99.5 (99) * 9 1/4, 9 1/4, -0 1/2 (X, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.4 feet
Girvin: 86.5, 95.5, 95 (96) * 9 1/2, 4 3/4, 4 3/4 (X, P, P) * 1st last race * 22.9 feet
Gunnevera: 94, 99.5, 91.5 (102) * 3 1/4, -2 1/2, 3 1/4 (P, T, X) * 3rd last race * ??? (I'll find some way to get a decent estimate of it somehow)
Hence: 80.5, 83.5, 98 (93) * 9 3/4, 7, 3 (P, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.3 feet

Those are the only four potential runners in this year's Derby field that I have the numbers for as of now, so that's all I could do this early. Will add to it over time of course. Interesting that Girvin profiles as well as he does. And I was wrong about Hence having a late pace of 95. He only got a 93. What's crazy with him, though, is that he ran an E1 in the Sunland Derby of 106 which was 19 points higher than he ever did before, and then an E2 of 108 which was 17 points higher than he ever did before. So, uh, basically he'll be going into the Derby with that E2 "lung opener" angle in addition to profiling very well in all the categories save for the late pace one, which he just missed in. Yep. Looks like this bunch of turds this spring is forcing me to go with a horse that ran his final prep at fucking Sunland Park as my Derby horse.

 

[Sharkey]

One Liner to miss the Arkansas Derby this week and as such won't be making the Derby gates in a few weeks.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...efeated-3-year-old-one-liner-out-indefinitely

That's a little unfortunate, but at the same time it's nice to see them putting the horse first and not trying to force the issue with him. I posted a video of one of One Liner's recent workouts on here last week and in it he showed that he was a horse that looked like he wasn't ready to run a 50 claimer nevermind a big G1 race like the Arkansas Derby.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I've been out of this thread for too long, personal shit gotten in the way of my betting, but glad to be back in here. Hope you guys are making some good profit in here, can't wait for the next races so we can cash big.

 

[Sharkey]

I've been out of this thread for too long, personal shit gotten in the way of my betting, but glad to be back in here. Hope you guys are making some good profit in here, can't wait for the next races so we can cash big.

I don't know about anybody else, but I've been shitting the bed the last few races, Blunt. But thanks for asking. Haha. Had some good weeks before that, so it's all good. Nice to see you back.

 

[Sharkey]

"This horse can't win the Derby because of this", "That horse can't win the Derby because of that", etc. If you listened to the comments on twitter and elsewhere people seem to think these horses are all crap and that nobody is going to win the Derby this year. Might as well not even run it. But guess what? Some horse is in fact going to win the Derby this year and we're going to find him. Not only are we going to find the winner, but we're going to do our best to find the 2nd and 3rd place finishers as well. Right guys? Right? Oh God.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

"This horse can't win the Derby because of this", "That horse can't win the Derby because of that", etc. If you listened to the comments on twitter and elsewhere people seem to think these horses are all crap and that nobody is going to win the Derby this year. Might as well not even run it. But guess what? Some horse is in fact going to win the Derby this year and we're going to find him. Not only are we going to find the winner, but we're going to do our best to find the 2nd and 3rd place finishers as well. Right guys? Right? Oh God.

We're gonna kill it Shark, if you can't find a winner than nobody can. You got me all pumped up now. I've been w/o the ponies for too long, I'm really excited now lol.

 

[Sharkey]

We're gonna kill it Shark, if you can't find a winner than nobody can. You got me all pumped up now. I've been w/o the ponies for too long, I'm really excited now lol.

Fuck yeah!

Even if it's going to feel like we're digging through a big pile of horse poo to find a few flecks of gold then we're going to do it. Umm, hopefully.

 

[Sharkey]

Out of the last 40 Kentucky Derbys 33 of the 40 have been won by horses that have finished in either 1st or 2nd in their last prep. Out of those that didn't win their final prep Thunder Gulch in 1995 had the largest margin of defeat in his final prep at 4 1/2 lengths. None of the eventual Derby winners finished further back than that in their final prep. I can't get the figures for all 40 of the past winners, but out of the last 25 only 4 horses didn't finish 1st or 2nd in their final prep and all 4 of those came into the Derby on a maintain or improve pattern. In fact all 4 of them, Thunder Gulch (101, 101), Sea Hero (91, 91), Giacomo (93, 95), and Mine That Bird (81, 80), came into the Derby after having paired up their BSF in their last two races, which tends to be a sign for an improved performance in their next race much more often than not.

Basically what I'm saying is that horses like Gunnevera, McCraken, Tapwrit, are going to be bad bets for the win spot in the Derby at the odds that they're likely to go off as. Horses almost never rebound off a bad final prep race and then go on to win the Derby. Derby winners are almost always entering the Derby after maintaining or improving their form in their most recent prep races. There's no room for excuses entering this race.

 

[Sharkey]

I never would have thought that I'd be looking at horses like Hence and Girvin as being all that playable in the Derby even a few days ago, but both are going to profile amongst the better options heading into the Derby using these categories of ours. And even though Girvin's finishing stride length is on the shorter side at 22.9 feet, it's actually one of the better ones of the 16 horses I've got an estimate for already. I have no doubt about Hence's 10F ability, but I do with Girvin. What makes Girvin look playable is that there's almost no one else who looks like they are going to be handle 10F. He may be completely out of gas over the last furlong in the Derby, but if 16 other horses are in the same predicament what's stopping him from a good finish. One of those types is likely to stagger home and finish in the trifecta or super with the way this crop is looking this year.

 

[Sharkey]

Do you guys think a Hence (30/1) over Girvin (15/1) exacta may offer up a pretty decent return on Derby day?

 

[Sharkey]

Out of the four horse I profiled already, Always Dreaming checks the box in 4, Girvin checks in 5, Gunnevera checks in 2 (assuming stride length), and Hence checks in 7.