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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
I got this fantastic Saratoga card finished as far as any capping goes because, why the hell not. I can't wait for it to be honest. We have the best race of the year in the Travers, which is about as good a betting race as you'll see. And we also have tremendous supporting races as well. So this is how I plan to play it all;


G1 Personal Ensign (race 6) - Going for Broke to win for 1u and then a Going for Broke, Forever Unbridled exacta box for 0.5u. It's a gamble leaving Songbird out completely and it's not likely to hit. But if she's 1/5 off of her having some backward form then the odds say it's worth the gamble to me.

G1 Ballerina (race 7) - By the Moon to win for 2u.

G1 King's Bishop (i.e. Jerkens) (race 8) - Practical Joke to win for 2u and then a couple of exactas with both Practical Joke & American Anthem over No Dozing for 0.5u each.

G1 Forego (race 9) - Divining Rod to win for 2u.

G1 Sword Dancer (race 10) - Bigger Picture to place for 2u. Not sure he can beat both the Euros, but in 9 of his last 10 races he's either won or been within a length of winning, so I feel confident he shows that same consistency and is there at the end again.

G1 Travers (race 11) - Good Samaritan to win for 5u and then a bunch of exactas with Good Samaritan, Tapwrit, Irap over Good Samaritan, Tapwrit, Irap, Gunnevera for 0.5u each (6u total).

G2 Ballston Spa (race 12) - Antonoe to win for 2u. She won for me two races back, and then ran a hell of a race last time out when she broke through the gate before the race (horses hardly ever run well after doing so), got squeezed and impeded in the stretch by a pair of horses to her outside and still only lost by a length to Lady Eli, who'll be a big favourite in this race.


I gave myself a $300 budget for this card (all my units are $10...yeah, I'm cheap), so I still have $60 left over to play around with. I'll probably just play a $2 trifecta box in the Travers with the 4 horses I have there ($48 total), and then maybe a $2 trifecta box in the King's Bishop as well with the 3 horses I'm playing in that race ($12). But we'll see. Gormely, Battle of Midway, and some others are also running on Saturday in a stakes race at Del Mar, so there may be something I like in that race instead.
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That's what I'm talking about Sharkey! Let do this. I'm going to be with you on everything, I may play the Travers just a bit differently, I'm not sure quite yet. Thanks for sharing.
 
Alright, I'm all set. Tailing all of @Sharkey 's plays with a few minor adjustments. I'm boxing the exactas in the King's Bishop (Practical Joke/No Dozing/American Anthem) and Travers (Tapwrit/Good Samaritan/Irap/Gunnevera).

Also adding trifecta boxes with the same horses in both races since I was already planning on doing that in the Travers anyway.

Best of luck today to anyone playing.
 
t6p said:
Alright, I'm all set. Tailing all of @Sharkey 's plays with a few minor adjustments. I'm boxing the exactas in the King's Bishop (Practical Joke/No Dozing/American Anthem) and Travers (Tapwrit/Good Samaritan/Irap/Gunnevera).

Also adding trifecta boxes with the same horses in both races since I was already planning on doing that in the Travers anyway.

Best of luck today to anyone playing.
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Let's do this T!

I thought about boxing the exacta in the King's Bishop myself, but then I thought I would have to cut some corners here & there based on the budget I gave myself today. Considering that a Practical Joke, American Anthem exacta probably doesn't pay much beyond 8/1 or so in either order that looked like a spot I could cut back a little bit. I am going to play the two small $2 trifecta boxes I mentioned, though, for that King's Bishop race and the Travers.

We're going to have a big day. I hope. I do feel pretty good about how we're playing these races, though. Even if we don't have a big day we should at least hit on some of our bets throughout the card. It's all going to come down to the Travers for us if that's where a large portion of our wagering focus is. If Good Samaritan does win by going off at his morning line odds then I am at least even on the day and everything else is gravy.
 
Sharkey said:
Let's do this T!

I thought about boxing the exacta in the King's Bishop myself, but then I thought I would have to cut some corners here & there based on the budget I gave myself today. Considering that a Practical Joke, American Anthem exacta probably doesn't pay much beyond 8/1 or so in either order that looked like a spot I could cut back a little bit. I am going to play the two small $2 trifecta boxes I mentioned, though, for that King's Bishop race and the Travers.

We're going to have a big day. I hope. I do feel pretty good about how we're playing these races, though. Even if we don't have a big day we should at least hit on some of our bets throughout the card. It's all going to come down to the Travers for us if that's where a large portion of our wagering focus is. If Good Samaritan does win by going off at his morning line odds then I am at least even on the day and everything else is gravy.
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I'm pumped right now! Looks like I'm going to be able to sit here and watch all the races today. About an hour and a half to go until race 6.

GL my friend.
 
There was a scratch this morning in the Personal Ensign (race 6), which means that the field has been reduced to 4 horses. Ah, I think I'm going to pass on the exacta try in that race by trying to beat Songbird. I'll still bet Going for Broke to win, but that exacta has lost value now with the scratch. I'm going to take that 1u I was going to play there and add it to Practical Joke's nose in the King's Bishop instead.
 
t6p said:
I'm pumped right now! Looks like I'm going to be able to sit here and watch all the races today. About an hour and a half to go until race 6.

GL my friend.
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That's what I'll be doing all day, T. I have to leave shortly to get these bets in, but the rest of the day I'll be sitting on my ass watching the races and then later I'll probably be watching the clown show that's taking place down in Vegas. I've been looking forward to this day for a long time now. I always look forward to Travers day every year, but this one has that little bit extra to it because of how strong the card is and the betting opportunity that is there in the Travers itself. Good times.
 
Sharkey said:
That's what I'll be doing all day, T. I have to leave shortly to get these bets in, but the rest of the day I'll be sitting on my ass watching the races and then later I'll probably be watching the clown show that's taking place down in Vegas. I've been looking forward to this day for a long time now. I always look forward to Travers day every year, but this one has that little bit extra to it because of how strong the card is and the betting opportunity that is there in the Travers itself. Good times.
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Same here, I'll be headed to a friends house to watch the "boxing" after the races. I'm trying to find an angle I like to bet it, but I'm not having much luck. I think I'm looking forward to it being over with more than anything honestly.
 
Sharkey said:
There was a scratch this morning in the Personal Ensign (race 6), which means that the field has been reduced to 4 horses. Ah, I think I'm going to pass on the exacta try in that race by trying to beat Songbird. I'll still bet Going for Broke to win, but that exacta has lost value now with the scratch. I'm going to take that 1u I was going to play there and add it to Practical Joke's nose in the King's Bishop instead.
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This thinking may have been the smart way to play these two races all along actually. Take just a little stab against Songbird and hope for the best. Whereas Practical Joke looks like he may be the standpoint on paper for the stakes portion the whole day when you consider he's getting a cutback to a one-turn race in which he's never lost, and will have both a class and race shape advantage over the others in the field. Plus he might not end up the favourite in the race either. I like it.
 
t6p said:
Same here, I'll be headed to a friends house to watch the "boxing" after the races. I'm trying to find an angle I like to bet it, but I'm not having much luck. I think I'm looking forward to it being over with more than anything honestly.
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Yeah, I'm similar, T. I've been intrigued by the buildup, the hype, the interest others have in it, but the fight itself has never been "must watch" for me. I'm still not even 100% committed to watching it. I mean, I may order it since I plan on having a bunch of extra cash in my pockets after the races today. But I don't really need to see it.

Okay, I've got to go and get some bets in here.
 
So much of my money is tied up tonight, followed on Good Samaritan for 1u tho, b/c I love the pony racing. GL boys!
 
Can't get away from it. They just compared Songbird to McGregor on FS2.
 
t6p said:
Can't get away from it. They just compared Songbird to McGregor on FS2.
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They can't be serious. Jesus. I guess I should be appreciative that the my only viewing option is on the NYRA live stream then since I don't get FS2 up here in Canada.
 
7/1 in a 4 horse field against a favourite who has fallen off form so far this year and is likely to lose one of her next races unless she reverses form? Yeah, I can get behind that. Today may be a reach and not the day to beat her. But I'll play these odds every time I do believe.
 
Well, Songbird did get beat. Just wasn't by my horse who barely did any running.
 
At 5/1 it looks like I'll at least be getting the price I wanted on By the Moon in this spot. Public is seeing it as a wide open race.
 
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