These are very likely to be my Jim Dandy plays for tomorrow;
- Good Samaritan to win for 1u and to place for 2u
- Cloud Computing over Good Samaritan exacta for 1u
I've been looking at this field some more and I think there's some very good value there with Good Samaritan at anything close to his morning line odds. Him trying dirt for the first time is obviously a question, but after watching his previous races on turf he looks like a horse that could handle it. He doesn't have the raised running action of a typical turf horse. Instead he has that low to the ground action more associated with dirt horses. That lower base also allows him to have a whole lot of extension when he's asked to do some real running. So visually he looks like he could handle the surface change. There's enough dirt influences in his recent pedigree to suggest he can handle it too. Also, this doesn't look like a move out of desperation by the trainer because this horse has by no means embarrassed himself running against the best turf horses of his crop. He's a G2 winner on the grass, and has finished no worse than 4th in any of his races (in a G1 race, in an 11 horse field, beaten 3 lengths by Oscar Performance). He was finishing just behind just good turf horses in graded stakes races, and was competitive in each of them. Because he's been so competitive and has shown class against the top turf horses of his crop, to me this looks like a trainer move that suggests that the trainer is confident the horse can handle the switch. He may not have been able to beat Oscar Performance on turf, but there's definitely graded stakes races on that surface with his name on it. This is a move out of confidence I think, rather than one out of desperation. It has to be. The trainer doesn't have a great record making this turf to dirt move, but he does have a winning percentage making this move that is much better than what Good Samaritan's odds suggest. Plus this horse is an individual on it's own. The other times the trainer tried this move were likely under very different circumstances for most of them.
Keeping on that same theme of "trainer intentions". What are the two favourites in this race for? Are they in it to try to win the Jim Dandy? Or are they entered in this race as a prep for the bigger race next month in the Travers? It is a Travers prep race afterall. Are either Cloud Computing or Always Dreaming going to be fully cranked tomorrow after a 2+ month layoff and with bigger fish to fry next month? One of them may be cranked to give something close to their top effort. Maybe. But both of them? Eh, I'm not sure about that. Always Dreaming just got back on the worktab in early July and has only worked 18F in total since the Preakness. Is he anything close to peak condition? Hmm. Between him and Cloud Computing it's probably going to be the latter who has an edge in physical conditioning as he has worked 26F in total since the Preakness. Good Samaritan has had 22F of work since the Preakness, in addition to also having two races within that span as well at 9F and 10F. If any of the horses are going to be fit enough to run their best race, whatever that best race may be on the surface for him, Good Samaritan looks like he could be the one.
So with possible question regarding Always Dreaming's fitness levels and in addition to what the trainer's intentions are for the race, what happens when this horse is tackled early on by a horse like Pavel. A horse who has had one race in his career, which was a sprint race at 6.5F and where he led the whole way. Pavel's only chances to win this race if you drew it up is to tackle Always Dreaming early and hope that Always Dreaming packs it in early. Like he did in the Preakness. Always Dreaming was able to win the races he did when he was able to sit comfortable positions and race well within himself. The first time he actually got a real challenge from another horse in Classic Empire he quit and he quit badly. He got physically dominated in the Preakness from a herd dynamic standpoint and was mentally broken. A lot of times we don't see horses recover from that. Some do. But some also don't. They're herd animals. Some horses are comfortable conceding herd leadership to others. And some aren't. Always Dreaming was winning his races easily before and without being challenged much, so it was probably in his mind that he was a herd leader in those races. When he entered a race like the Preakness and found out he wasn't the herd leader, how does he react in the future because of it? Who knows. But horses do get demoralized by things like that all the time, and lose their confidence. That may be something that only affects him if he meets Classic Empire again in the future. But it also may go deeper. e.g. Look at California Chrome earlier in the year. Arrogate beat him heads up last year in the BC Classic. Ran him down in the stretch, challenged him by looking him right in the eye, and then went by him. The next time they met California Chrome conceded to Arrogate as soon as some real running began, and then proceeded to finish way up the track in 9th or whatever it was. That's only one example. But it happens all the time in racing.
So how does Always Dreaming respond to an early challenge from a horse like Pavel? Who knows. But it's another question with him in addition to the ones regarding his fitness level and trainer intentions. And if he does manage to repel an early challenge from Pavel, how does he react to a challenge from Cloud Computing that should be happening soon after? Who knows. If Always Dreaming is fit enough, is entered with the intention of giving his best effort, and also gets to sit a nice comfortable trip on the front end without much in the way of challenges, then yeah, he's definitely in a position to win the race. No doubt. But is that what's going to happen? I have my doubts. I think we'll see Pavel challenge Always Dreaming early enough, and whomever is left out of those two to fend off the other runners will be a sitting duck for a horse like Cloud Computing (who should be sitting 3rd right behind those two most of the way) coming off the turn. If Cloud Computing isn't ready for a good effort based on his fitness level or trainer intentions then I could see it being Good Samaritan who's picking up the pieces late.
So there. In novel form (sorry), those are my thoughts on the race. The Travers is coming up next month and with that being my favourite race on the calendar each year, I'm starting to get excited. So let's get it started by winning some fucking money on the traditional Travers prep shall we? I could use some.
