Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Top 3's are up. TT +425, Patch +575

Also:

Twisted Tom top 2 +700/top 4 +225
Patch top 2 +875/top 4 +265

Top 3 is down to +350 and +450 respectively as well.

 

[Sharkey]

Damn I didn t know there was a horse racing thread on sherdog, I'm looking at all the races at belmont for Saturday. I'll post my thoughts and plays when I'm done

Looking forward to your thoughts, A.

 

[Sharkey]

Twisted Tom has been bet down to 8/1 in the advanced wagering pools from his 20/1 morning line odds. That's pretty crazy. You guys are getting a great price if you got in on him at +2000.

 

[airic_15]

Ill be playing mostly exacta's with 3 or 4 horses but i will post the horse im most confident in each race. If you want to know why i picked a certain horse in a race just ask and ill try to give some more info. Also i havnt seen any scratches so if one of my horses is scratched please let me know

Race 3
#5 Tu Brutus 2-1

Race 4
#3 Abel Tasman 2-1

Race 5
#5 Songbird 1/2

Great start i know all favs but remember im playing them with exactas so they can come second with a nice price on top and still pay ok

Race 6
#1 Loose on the town 8-1
Longshot Bet #8 Canadian Flyer 20-1

Race 7
#3 Recruiting Ready
Longshot Bet #4 Gold for the King 15-1

Race 8
#5 Celestine 3-1
Bet #7 Antonoe if you can get 10-1 or higher

Race 9
#5 Sharp Azteca 7/2

Race 10
#1 Beach Patrol 4-1

Race 11
#7 Irish War Cry 7/2

 

[Sharkey]

Ill be playing mostly exacta's with 3 or 4 horses but i will post the horse im most confident in each race. If you want to know why i picked a certain horse in a race just ask and ill try to give some more info. Also i havnt seen any scratches so if one of my horses is scratched please let me know

Race 3
#5 Tu Brutus 2-1

Race 4
#3 Abel Tasman 2-1

Race 5
#5 Songbird 1/2

Great start i know all favs but remember im playing them with exactas so they can come second with a nice price on top and still pay ok

Race 6
#1 Loose on the town 8-1
Longshot Bet #8 Canadian Flyer 20-1

Race 7
#3 Recruiting Ready
Longshot Bet #4 Gold for the King 15-1

Race 8
#5 Celestine 3-1
Bet #7 Antonoe if you can get 10-1 or higher

Race 9
#5 Sharp Azteca 7/2

Race 10
#1 Beach Patrol 4-1

Race 11
#7 Irish War Cry 7/2

Thanks for the picks, A. I may have to tail you on your Jaipur (race 6) pick as that was the one race I hadn't looked at yet. But in taking a quick glance of the PP's for that race the #1 does make some sense at those odds. It's a class test for him, but it looks like there is a strong possibility that the horse is left alone on the lead. Has a win over the track at this distance as well, so I think I can buy into that at good odds.

 

[t6p]

Going with the following:

Race 2
0.5u You're to Blame(#8) to win
Race 3
0.25u Governor Malibu(#1) to win
0.1u Exacta box Governor Malibu(#1)/Tu Brutus(#5)
Race 4
0.25u Benner Island(#5) to win
0.1u Exacta box Benner Island(#5)/Abel Tasman(#3)
Race 6
0.25u Loose on the Town(#1) to win
Race 7
0.15u Exacta box Recruiting Ready(#3)/Gold for the King(#4)/American Anthem(#8)
Race 8
0.5u Antonoe(#7) to win
0.1u Exacta box Celestine(#5)/Antonoe(#7)
Race 9
1u Sharp Azteca(#5) to win
Race 10
0.25u Time Test(#4) to win
0.1u Exacta box Beach Patrol(#1)/Time Test(#4)
Race 11
0.5u Twisted Tom(#1) to win/place/show
0.3u Exacta box Twisted Tom(#1)/Tapwrit(#2)/Patch(#12)

Big thanks to @Sharkey for all the info and sharing your picks. And thanks to @airic_15 for posting your picks as well. I'm heading to golf course in a bit so I'm probably going to miss most of the races unfortunately, but I'm hoping to catch the Belmont at least. Best of luck today gentlemen!

 

[timmyclax22]

Epicharis scratched and depending on when you guys bet on 5dimes your bets may be voided.

My bet is an action bet but if placed in the last few days the bets state that Irish War Cry and Epicharis must run for action. Go to your bet in the review bets tab and place the cursor over the actual bet that is in bold and it will tell you.

I have 1U on Twisted Tom (+1800) and an exacta box for .1U of Twisted Tom, Lookin at Lee, Tapwrit, and Patch.

Good luck!

 

[Sharkey]

Good to see that the right decision was made with Epicharis, although concerning that it ended up being a vet/stewards decision and not one made by those connected to the horse. But he's safe to run again another day and that's really all that matters.

 

[t6p]

Epicharis scratched and depending on when you guys bet on 5dimes your bets may be voided.

My bet is an action bet but if placed in the last few days the bets state that Irish War Cry and Epicharis must run for action. Go to your bet in the review bets tab and place the cursor over the actual bet that is in bold and it will tell you.

I have 1U on Twisted Tom (+1800) and an exacta box for .1U of Twisted Tom, Lookin at Lee, Tapwrit, and Patch.

Good luck!

Ah shit. Thanks for the heads up, all my action is voided without Epicharis running.

Went ahead and re-placed my Twisted Tom bets. Leaving Patch out at these odds. Modified my original post as well.

 

[Sharkey]

- Easy Goer Stakes (race 2); You're to Blame to win for 2u
- G2 Brooklyn Invitational (race 3); Governor Malibu to win for 1u
- G1 Acorn Stakes (race 4); Benner Island to win for 1u
- G3 Jaipur (race 6); Loose On The Town to win for 1u
- G2 Woody Stephens (race 7); American Anthem to win for 1u (God help me)
- G1 Just A Game (race 8); Antonoe to win for 1u
- G1 Met Mile (race 9); Sharp Azteca to win for 2u
- G1 Manhattan (race 10); Time Test to win for 1u
- G1 Belmont Stakes (race 11); Twisted Tom to win for 2u and place for 3u. Patch to show for 2u. Twisted Tom, Patch and Tapwrit exacta box for 0.5u each

Racing begins shortly, so I got to head out and make these plays. Best of luck to anyone betting the races today. It's gonna be a fun day, and hopefully a profitable one for all as well.

 

[Sharkey]

Rough start to the day with You're to Blame finishing a fast closing 2nd in the Easy Goer and then Governor Malibu finishing a dull 4th in the Brooklyn. Oh well. Day is just getting started so there's plenty of opportunities to get those back and then some.

 

[Sharkey]

Wow, Benner Island currently sitting at 20/1 with 15 mins to post. I'll take that any day, but also wished I would have bet her to place if she's being ignored like that at the windows.

 

[Sharkey]

Benner Island finishes 3rd behind the top 2 choices, Abel Tasman and Salty.

 

[Sharkey]

92% of the show money for the Phipps is being bet on Songbird. If anybody is feeling gutsy and wants to try to beat Songbird out of the top 3 based on her long layoff there's big money to be gained there by show betting every other horse in the field. I still expect her to win for fun, though, even with the layoff.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, based on how spectacular she looks in the pre-race all I can say is good luck to those few who are trying to beat Songbird today. They'll need it. Lots of it.

 

[Sharkey]

That #2 horse, Paid Up Subscriber, made her work for it, but Songbird does what she's suppose to do and takes the Phipps. Nice to see her back on the track.

 

[Sharkey]

7/5, 9/5, 4/1, 2/1 and 1/5 winners. Favourites have gone 4 for 5 so far on the Belmont card making it a shitty day to bet against the chalk. Hopefully the law of averages balances itself out as the day goes on and a couple of decent prices come in.

 

[Sharkey]

If that time in the Jaipur is to be believed then that crushes the North American record for that distance on the turf by over a second. I have my doubts, although it did visually look like a fast race.

 

[Sharkey]

The track had the Jaipur timed in 1:05.67 while Trakus had it timed even a little bit faster at 1:05.39. The top 3 finishers all finished within about a length of each other too. Crazy. That would easily be a North American record if the time stands and may even be a world record.

 

[Sharkey]

American Anthem is the current 9/5 favourite with 10 mins to post. Mike Smith has been riding lights out today over the track being 3 for 3, and as noted, favourites have been doing very well today. I still expect him to finish towards or at the back, though, as I have no confidence in him at all.