Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Haha, thanks Shark. Honestly I haven’t even looked at any of the other races yet. I feel like I do my best work at the track with a couple beers and edibles in my system. Hopefully that’ll continue today.

Being selective takes discipline, but I’ve found that it does pay off in the end. At least when it’s comes to my MMA betting. Good luck if you make any plays today besides the Woodward.

It certainly does take discipline, T. I've seen the results of that firsthand last winter when I stuck to my E2 angle and then again this spring with outside speed in sprints. I had positive results both times by sticking to some basic principles, especially this spring. It's when I started trying to get greedy by expanding my plays that I started seeing the negative results. When you're being selective and disciplined with ideas that have worked for you you aren't really gambling, but investing instead. You're not relying on luck on those occasions, but a skill you've developed that helped you identify and forecast. When you get away from what you're best at then then you're relying on some luck to produce positive results and that's when it becomes more akin to gambling. Gambling on a result happening is a losing proposition for 95+% of the people out there over an extended period of time because you're relying more on chance than anything and you're are always going to be a big disadvantage in the long run. But when you make smart decisions based on the probability of result happening that is anything but gambling. That's when it becomes a game of skill, not chance. The ponies, MMA, or any other sport doesn't have to be about "gambling" if you're good at identifying probabilities and have your own unique & innovated ways of looking at things. The conventional handicapping (on every sport) that everybody else does doesn't work. If everybody caps the same way then all people are doing is inflating the perceived probability of something happening as a group, and thus deflating the potential payouts even when their bets do hit. That's guaranteed to lose money for all but a select few in the long run. You want to cash bets on a 60% realistic probability when the market says it's only 40%, not the other way around. That's one reason why I trimmed my formula last week of a lot of extra junk. For 9 out of every 10 races it was telling me that I should like the same horses that the public should like, and that's the exact opposite of what I designed it to tell me. I wanted it looking outside the box, not inside, and so it was time to take it back down to the basics of form, class, and speed, and go from there.
 
Hopefully @t6p was helped and not hurt by all the shenanigans at the end of that 8th race.
 
Woodward;

#14 Rally Cry to win for $10

#10 over #1, #4, and then #4, #14 over #10 in some $4 exactas

#10 over #1 over #4, #9, #11, #13, #14 in $1 trifectas
#10 over #4, #9, #11, #13, #14 over #1 in $1 trifectas
#4, #14 over #10 over #1 in $1 trifectas
#4, #14 over #1 over #10 in $1 trifectas

$50 risk in total.

Rally Cry over Seeking the Soul over Yoshida would be the ideal result for me.
 
Couple of pace pattern horses after the Woodward;

Race 7 at Louisiana Downs - #5 Zensational Vision 8/1 (19.6% = 9/2 fair odds)(HLS, OS)

Race 7 at Charles Town - #9 Owen's Mo 5/1 (22.9% = 7/2 fair odds)(LET, OS)
 
Hopefully @t6p was helped and not hurt by all the shenanigans at the end of that 8th race.

Unfortunately I had the 10-4 exacta there bud. I did get the exacta and trifecta on race 7 so having a decent day so far. Ready to cash something big on the Woodward!
 
Unfortunately I had the 10-4 exacta there bud. I did get the exacta and trifecta on race 7 so having a decent day so far. Ready to cash something big on the Woodward!

You should have cashed that exacta then, T. In my opinion at least. The #8 caused 90% of the chaos coming to the line there I thought and should have been placed behind both of the others. The infraction from the #4 was minor, and the #10 was obviously innocent.

Great job cashing the race before, though.
 
Woodward;

#14 Rally Cry to win for $10

#10 over #1, #4, and then #4, #14 over #10 in some $4 exactas

#10 over #1 over #4, #9, #11, #13, #14 in $1 trifectas
#10 over #4, #9, #11, #13, #14 over #1 in $1 trifectas
#4, #14 over #10 over #1 in $1 trifectas
#4, #14 over #1 over #10 in $1 trifectas

$50 risk in total.

Rally Cry over Seeking the Soul over Yoshida would be the ideal result for me.

I’m going with a 1/10 exacta box and a 1/10/14 trifecta box. Also taking 10 to win.

Good luck @Sharkey!
 
Great betting race this is if one was to land on the right horses.
 
@Sharkey please tell me I’m reading your plays wrong and you won something.
 
@Sharkey please tell me I’m reading your plays wrong and you won something.

Nah, nothing for me, T.

See what happens when I veer off the path of looking for positive pace patterns and overthink things? The only horse in the race with those positive patterns goes out there and clearly wins the thing. At a very fair price as well. I deserved to lose on that one.
 
But no, let's try to get cute with my plays why don't I.

The G1 Woodward is a really interesting race on Saturday at Saratoga even though it's lacking in a lot of G1 depth. I did the numbers for it using the stripped down version of the formula and then calculated win probability after that, which, unless I messed up, should add up to 100% give or take a decimal point. I don't have the morning line odds yet, although I suspect Gunnevera will be favourite.

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#4 Tapwrit 6/1 - 378.7 (16.1%)
#1 Yoshida 5/1 - 373.7 (13.9%)(NPT, E2, HLS)
#10 Seeking the Soul 9/2 - 371.9 (13.1%)
#14 Rally Cry 20/1 - 365.7 (10.3%)
#13 Zanotti 20/1 - 364.1 (9.5%)
#9 Gunnevera 4/1 - 361.2 (8.7%)
#12 Sunny Ridge 8/1 - 359.4 (7.4%)
#8 Discreet Lover 8/1 - 356.7 (6.1%)
#11 Leofric 20/1 - 356.3 (6.0%)
#2 Imperative 30/1 - 350.5 (3.3%)
#5 Hence 20/1 - 348.8 (2.6%)
#7 Kurilov 10/1 - 346.0 (1.3%)
#6 Term of Art 30/1 - 343.3 (1.0%)
#3 Patch 20/1 - 341.3 (0.7%)

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Cheers T. This was just the raw numbers based on form, class, and speed, though. I didn't really look at anything else in the race (stuff that I would have accounted for previously...or overly accounted for) besides compiling those. Tapwrit scored a little better than I thought he would. Gunnevera scored a little worse than I would have thought. If I was asked to pick a horse beforehand without looking at PP's it most definitely would have been Yoshida, though, so it's nice to see him both score well and have some nice pace patterns going in. I've been high on that horse's talents for a while now. Ever since he dominated a turf race on the Preakness undercard last year. He has to answer the turf to dirt question, but I'm thinking I'll probably be keying around him in exotics in this race, and then playing him straight if at the right odds. My early plans anyways. But we'll look at the race more in the next couple of days since, like you said, it could be a great betting race with it being a big field with a potentially vulnerable favourite and then a horse like Patch in it.

The PP's if you want to take a gander for yourself;

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
 
Nah, nothing for me, T.

See what happens when I veer off the path of looking for positive pace patterns and overthink things? The only horse in the race with those positive patterns goes out there and clearly wins the thing. At a very fair price as well. I deserved to lose on that one.

Damn it. That’s rough bud. I know you were liking Yoshida from the start.
 
Damn it. That’s rough bud. I know you were liking Yoshida from the start.

Ah, it's no big deal, T. The good thing about it was that I forgot about the race I was planning to bet at Louisiana Downs right after the Woodward, and that horse didn't hit the board by the looks of it. So there's a bright side to the story. Haha.
 
Couple of pace pattern horses after the Woodward;

Race 7 at Louisiana Downs - #5 Zensational Vision 8/1 (19.6% = 9/2 fair odds)(HLS, OS)

Race 7 at Charles Town - #9 Owen's Mo 5/1 (22.9% = 7/2 fair odds)(LET, OS)

I'm going to forget about this horse at Charles Town as well. This time on purpose, though, just because he's likely to get bet down to unplayable odds now that the favourite scratched (a vulnerable favourite at that, who I only had ranked 6th of 10).
 
Could only find one pace pattern option for today, but it looks like a nice race to bet;

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Race 6 at Arlington (1:40);

1- 225.3
2- 228.5
3- 200.4 (morning line favourite and ranks a clear last)
4- 231.8
5- 237.0
6- 236.6
7- 240.5
8- 263.9 Pure Blarney 12/1 (27.9% = 3/1 fair odds)(LET, OS)

I'm thinking;

#8 to win/place for $8/$12

#7, #8 over #4, #7, #8 over #4, #7, #8 in exactas ($4) and trifectas ($1)

Both the #5 and #6 rank higher than the #4 on the numbers, and look like the better win contenders if one of them was to get loose or sit a nice outside stalking position up front. But I have the #8 sitting right outside the #5 when I run the pace numbers with the #6 chasing behind those, and with the #8 having shown the better ability to sustain a pace (plus the addition of the positive pace pattern for today), I'm playing both the #5 and #6 to fade back late and open the race up somewhat for an off the pace type like the #4 and #7 (who profile as stronger board factors). That's the way I have it playing out on paper anyways. The #8 at 12/1 over the #7 at 10/1 would be outstanding if their morning line odds hold up.

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That good feeling you get after you cap a race only happens once every couple/few months.
 
Could only find one pace pattern option for today, but it looks like a nice race to bet;

==========

Race 6 at Arlington (1:40);

1- 225.3
2- 228.5
3- 200.4 (morning line favourite and ranks a clear last)
4- 231.8
5- 237.0
6- 236.6
7- 240.5
8- 263.9 Pure Blarney 12/1 (27.9% = 3/1 fair odds)(LET, OS)

I'm thinking;

#8 to win/place for #8/$12

#7, #8 over #4, #7, #8 over #4, #7, #8 in exactas ($4) and trifectas ($1)

Both the #5 and #6 rank higher than the #4 on the numbers, and look like the better win contenders if one of them was to get loose or sit a nice outside stalking position up front. But I have the #8 sitting right outside the #5 when I run the pace numbers with the #6 chasing behind those, and with the #8 having shown the better ability to sustain a pace (plus the addition of the positive pace pattern for today), I'm playing both the #5 and #6 to fade back late and open the race up somewhat for an off the pace type like the #4 and #7 (who profile as stronger board factors). That's the way I have it playing out on paper anyways. The #8 at 12/1 over the #7 at 10/1 would be outstanding if their morning line odds hold up.

==========

Haven't tailed anything in awhile but was gonna maybe look to tail this one...and looks like your #8 horse scratched? Ah well, maybe next time Shark!
 
Haven't tailed anything in awhile but was gonna maybe look to tail this one...and looks like your #8 horse scratched? Ah well, maybe next time Shark!

No way. Ah, you're killing me with that news, Mike. Please tell me you're kidding.
 
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