Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Great points, Shark. Bravazo is a really solid horse and he likely has the most experienced dirt trainer still alive now. Even in the Derby he showed up. You rarely see Lukas show up and get blown out.

Good Magic looked phenomenal in the crown races, would have maybe even won the crown without Big Red, almost certainly the first two legs, and especially looked great at the Haskell; Justify's early Speed just kills these other horses......which brings me to PF, who was the only horse to keep up with his early speed, and one has to think he will look great going only 7F.

What a great day of races. The whole card is solid. Wish they had more events like this, Belmont Day and BC.

Promises Fulfilled has already looked pretty damn good in sprint races, Donk. Two of the most impressive performances I've seen yet this year from this year's 3 year-olds were by him in the Woody Stephens and then the Amsterdam.



Even though he got ran down late this was a hugely impressive performance by Promises Fulfilled considering the pace of the race, the pace pressure of the race and by whom (World of Trouble is also one of the best sprinters of this year's crop and just won a stakes race easily enough in his last start), the disadvantaged position Promises Fulfilled was put in with being pinned on the rail the whole race long, and the fact that he was able to outduel his pace pressurer to the line under those circumstances. The two best horses in that race were, by far, the two horses that finished 3rd and 4th, and Promises Fulfilled was fairly easily the best horse in that race.



Again he was involved in a super fast pace, but this time he showed an added dimension by being able sit behind/off and stalk that fast pace set by another fast horse in Strike Power. He sat, pounced, and then pulled away even though Strike Power forced him to use up a lot of energy to get that position throughout the race.

There's no Strike Power in tomorrow's race and certainly no World of Trouble. There's a couple of other early speed types in Gidu and Telekiness, but if Promises Fulfilled has his running shoes on those two won't be able to keep the pace that he sets. And even if they wanted to that would be pretty dumb of their jocks to even try as all they'd be doing is purchasing a one way ticket to the back of the pack if they did try.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Promises Fulfilled has already looked pretty damn good in sprint races, Donk. Two of the most impressive performances I've seen yet this year from this year's 3 year-olds were by him in the Woody Stephens and then the Amsterdam.



Even though he got ran down late this was a hugely impressive performance by Promises Fulfilled considering the pace of the race, the pace pressure of the race and by whom (World of Trouble is also one of the best sprinters of this year's crop and just won a stakes race easily enough in his last start), the disadvantaged position Promises Fulfilled was put in with being pinned on the rail the whole race long, and the fact that he was able to outduel his pace pressurer to the line under those circumstances. The two best horses in that race were, by far, the two horses that finished 3rd and 4th, and Promises Fulfilled was fairly easily the best horse in that race.



Again he was involved in a super fast pace, but this time he showed an added dimension by being able sit behind/off and stalk that fast pace set by another fast horse in Strike Power. He sat, pounced, and then pulled away even though Strike Power forced him to use up a lot of energy to get that position throughout the race.

There's no Strike Power in tomorrow's race and certainly no World of Trouble. There's a couple of other early speed types in Gidu and Telekiness, but if Promises Fulfilled has his running shoes on those two won't be able to keep the pace that he sets. And even if they wanted to that would be pretty dumb of their jocks to even try as all they'd be doing is purchasing a one way ticket to the back of the pack if they did try.

He's more like a Quarter Horse than a thoroughbred. 21 for the quarter and 43 and change in back to back races. I didn't see the Stephens until now, but I almost felt bad for him seeing him put such a solid early performance and then seeing those strides shorten around the turn. Makes you wonder what type of horse he could be with a bottom end put on him and some conditioning.

It gives me another layer of respect for Justify's Kentucky Derby seeing that he can go 43 and change, deal with this speedy cat, and can still hold on to a mile and a quarter, fighting off a run from Good Magic too. I still can't get over the talent that colt had, and what a shame it is that he was retired after just 112 days. I don't think there's ever been such a case of blueballing in the annals of racing.

 

[Sharkey]

Basically if Promises Fulfilled shows up with his gas tank at or near full it's not going to matter much what version of Firenze Fire shows up. Or anybody else in the field for that matter. Promises Fulfilled's best is simply way too fast for the rest of the King's Bishop runners. They'll never catch him. They have to hope he's been zapped somewhat by these last two races of his. Or he finds trouble in the race, particularly getting out of the gates.

 

[Sharkey]

He's more like a Quarter Horse than a thoroughbred. 21 for the quarter and 43 and change in back to back races. I didn't see the Stephens until now, but I almost felt bad for him seeing him put such a solid early performance and then seeing those strides shorten around the turn. Makes you wonder what type of horse he could be with a bottom end put on him and some conditioning.

It gives me another layer of respect for Justify's Kentucky Derby seeing that he can go 43 and change, deal with this speedy cat, and can still hold on to a mile and a quarter, fighting off a run from Good Magic too. I still can't get over the talent that colt had, and what a shame it is that he was retired after just 112 days. I don't think there's ever been such a case of blueballing in the annals of racing.

I'm okay with Justify being retired, but that's more the gambler in me talking. I've already seen him beat the best of the rest from the crop and most of them multiple times, so I don't need to see it again. And the older division doesn't offer much in the way of overall quality this year either. A Justify-less Travers is a whole lot more interesting to me to bet on than it would have been had he'd still been in training. We have some parity now where we can find good prices on horses we do like and see having a legitimate chance to win tomorrow. T and I both like both Tenfold and Catholic Boy as contenders and both may go off in the 10/1 range tomorrow. That's great. With Justify entered we'd likely be conceding to him and hoping to find the 2nd and 3rd place finishers hoping to hit a modest trifecta. And it probably wouldn't be a 11 horse field either because some coonnections wouldn't even bother. Probably closer to American Pharoah's Travers field which had something like 5 or 6. That's very unappealing from a gambler's perspective.

 

[Sharkey]

Actually the 2015 Travers had a 10 horse field. Don't know why I thought it was a smaller one than that. Probably because at least half the field was forgettable I guess. I did notice that Gronkowski ran in that race, though, finishing 8th of 10. That's after finishing 7th and 6th in his previous two races.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm so mean.

 

[Sharkey]

Gronkowski has been in 4 of the past 5 Travers. Finished 8th, 9th, 8th, and then 10th last year. Let's see if he can get a 7th this time around.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm so mean.

Yes you are. Asshole.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 7 at Evangeline coming up in about an hour;

#2 Sawyers Gray Girl 8/1 (12.9% = 7/1 fair odds)

Have this one ranked 3rd with a one horse well clear of the others on top and who should be a heavy favourite. This one both the E2 and late early third angles going for her. Just ran her highest E1 in the past 5 races, and highest E2 of the past 6. Fits at this class level better than anybody save for the favourite. Has hit the board in 2 of 3 starts at this level with the only exception being when she was returning off a six month layoff. Is one of only three horse to have a top 2 finish above this class level this year as well. Has the highest race + class rating in a race this year save for the favourite as well. The favourite may be a bit vulnerable even though she's clearly the best horse in the race too as that one hasn't had time off for at least 9 months, and shows a regressive in her recent races with 21 and 11 point dropoffs while finishing 5th in both races. But that was when the favourite was facing a higher class of horses too, so that has to be considered. And the favourite has all the potential to be lone speed if she wants it. The 2nd choice certainly looks vulnerable, though, as that one just broke her maiden in her 13th career start, did so by getting a lone uncontested lead over soft fractions after a perfect outside stalking trip through the first bit of the race, and obviously did so at a lower class level. There's no lone lead for her today with the favourite in this race unless that one can't get out of the gates. The 2nd choice tied her highest final figure that race also, and last time she it she regressed 8 points in the next race. Even if the favourite runs to her odds this race could open up for a price pick to come in 2nd, and with it being a 12 horse field a place bet even with the favourite winning could pay decently unless the favourite gets absolutely hammered in the place pool as well. There's certainly concerns with this #2 horse for sure, as that 6 month layoff just ended a month ago, so there's some lingering questions there. But this being her 3rd race this month is a positive in my view. And if she gets the average 5+ point improvement that the late early third angle showed me then that basically matches what her top figure what before, and better than what all but the two top choices have been running. If she's one of them ones who gets a 10+ jump up she wins and at what should be great odds. I'll either win/place at fair odds or even go across the board with her since it's such a big field and some questions there with the top two choices.

This was actually the first horse I've put money on that had the late early third angle since I identified it. A couple of days ago I threw a horse named Cherokee into a group of LET horses I was tracking, but that one didn't even fit the angle. That horse had ran the highest E1 and lowest LP figures of it's form cycle it's last race, but both of those came in it's 5th start of it's cycle and it was going into it's 6th. I threw it into the group with a few others that I was tracking that day because I had a couple horses that beat me that I noticed still had that pattern. But it wasn't the late early third pattern.

 

[Sharkey]

I==========

Race 6 (9:30);

#6 Cyclone Dan 7/2 - 366.6
#8 Robertino Red 9/2 - 356.3
#3 Pawnee Girl 8/1 - 319.9
#4 Russian Thrill 10/1 - 313.7
---
#7 Martello 3/1 - 311.9
#9 Bionic 6/1 - 307.9
#2 Manning 10/1 - 304.4
#1 Chase the Money 8/1 - 304.2
#5 Naughty Nitro 12/1 - 253.4

==========

The #6 horse scratched out so I'm thinking maybe a #3, #4, #8 exacta box now. The #7 horse is getting hammered early in the betting to the tune of 6/5, so now I really want to beat it and have some additional coverage to better my chances. Any combo without the favourite top 2 will pay well. I'll make a win bet on someone as well since there will be an overlay somewhere with the #7 taking so much money. I'll decide who near post time.

 

[Sharkey]

The #3 was just announced as a late scratch. Shit. I guess I'm just going with a #4, #8 exacta box now. The #4 is going to be my win bet as the potential controlling speed. The #8 should be within range too.

 

[Sharkey]

Got the exacta at least. If they were to reverse the finishing order that is. I must've capped that race with a mirror I'm thinking. Yeah, that's the excuse I'll use.

 

[Sharkey]

Playing the #2 to win race 7 at Hastings to end another day.

 

[eataface]

Bah just missed this

 

[Sharkey]

Playing the #2 to win race 7 at Hastings to end another day.

Finished a respectable 5th of 5 in the race. Oh well. Even Hastings hates me now if I can't even finish ahead of a single horse in two races and that's been a great track for me the last few months. At least I hit a couple of bets today to where I don't have to add to my account tomorrow if I don't wan to. And I probably don't as I'm only down $4 on the day despite getting almost everything wrong once again. Thinking about just playing the Travers race itself and then focusing on finding some pace angle horses at other tracks instead of playing the Travers undercard, which seems chalky anyways. I basically have to rely on concept or gimmick handicapping now like the outside speed that won (plus exacta) that last dirt race at Saratoga for me and then that late early third longshot that finished 3rd at Evangeline. I can't cash a bet any way else nowadays it seems.

 

[Sharkey]

Bah just missed this

Lucky for you, Eat. Or maybe you would have played the #7 that race and got rewarded. Those were my two choices. The #2 or the #7? The #7 or the #2? Hmm, which one should I played? Of course I chose wrong because my decision making sucks shit lately.

 

[Sharkey]

"I follow the horses, and the horses I follow, follow other horses."

Can't remember who's quote that was originally, but that's me right now.

 

[Sharkey]

I should make a superfecta ticket tomorrow where I completely fade myself and just play all the horses I don't have any interest in;

Gronkowski keyed in 1st over Wonder Gadot, Mendelssohn, King Zachary, and Meistermind.

 

[eataface]

I should make a superfecta ticket tomorrow where I completely fade myself and just play all the horses I don't have any interest in;

Gronkowski keyed in 1st over Wonder Gadot, Mendelssohn, King Zachary, and Meistermind.

Theirs a guy has had a 100% fade win rate pver 12 picks on reddit

 

[Black Paladin]

Theirs a guy has had a 100% fade win rate pver 12 picks on reddit

Eddie Mush--Yonkers Joe