Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

The Belmont Stakes post positions and morning line odds;

#1 Justify 4/5
#2 Free Drop Billy 30/1
#3 Bravazo 8/1
#4 Hofburg 9/2
#5 Restoring Hope 30/1
#6 Gronkowski 12/1
#7 Tenfold 12/1
#8 Vino Rosso 8/1
#9 Noble Indy 30/1
#10 Blended Citizen 15/1


Have at it @t6p!

Haha, I’ll be looking at the race in the next couple of days bud. Fingers crossed that I can come up with something decent.

 

[Sharkey]

Haha, I’ll be looking at the race in the next couple of days bud. Fingers crossed that I can come up with something decent.

I hope you can too, T. Hitting the trifecta in all three races like you're attempting to do would be absolutely huge. I don't think I've ever known anybody to have done it before. People have of course. I've just never heard of it. Good luck, my friend.

 

[t6p]

I hope you can too, T. Hitting the trifecta in all three races like you're attempting to do would be absolutely huge. I don't think I've ever known anybody to have done it before. People have of course. I've just never heard of it. Good luck, my friend.

Wow. So much pressure!

 

[Sharkey]

Wow. So much pressure!

Ah, you'll do fine, T. This might be the easiest of the three races to handicap actually. To me the only question is if and how to play Justify. The horses with the best chance to beat him or finish just behind him look pretty obvious.

 

[Sharkey]

Justify's combined BSF/BRIS figures over his 5 races so far;

102 - 102.5 - 110.5 - 102.5 - 97.5

Just from a pattern perspective he looks like a horse who is over the top and on the slide with his competitors having closed the gap in the Preakness. It's very hard seeing him improve on his numbers again in a 12F race like the Belmont with that pattern and after his schedule of races so far, and I'd say he's much more likely to run either a maintain or regressive race once again. A maintain race makes him a win contender. A race with further regression gets him beat and maybe beat completely out of a top 3 position even. But he's also looked good in his training leading up to this race. Doesn't look like a horse in the mornings who is going to come up "empty" on Saturday. He also has a very good chance of being the controlling speed on the front end as well. Then again, with him drawing inside like he did, race dynamics say that he may get a trip pinned down on the rail for once instead of the one doing the pinning because, since it's a 12F race where saving energy is paramount, he's certainly not going to be running an early pace that other horses won't be able to keep up with if they wanted to.

It's your call @t6p. Do you want to try to cash a ticket that enables you to buy yourself a nice dinner? Or do you want to try to cash a ticket that enables you to buy yourself a new car?

 

[t6p]

Justify's combined BSF/BRIS figures over his 5 races so far;

102 - 102.5 - 110.5 - 102.5 - 97.5

Just from a pattern perspective he looks like a horse who is over the top and on the slide with his competitors having closed the gap in the Preakness. It's very hard seeing him improve on his numbers again in a 12F race like the Belmont with that pattern and after his schedule of races so far, and I'd say he's much more likely to run either a maintain or regressive race once again. A maintain race makes him a win contender. A race with further regression gets him beat and maybe beat completely out of a top 3 position even. But he's also looked good in his training leading up to this race. Doesn't look like a horse in the mornings who is going to come up "empty" on Saturday. He also has a very good chance of being the controlling speed on the front end as well. Then again, with him drawing inside like he did, race dynamics say that he may get a trip pinned down on the rail for once instead of the one doing the pinning because, since it's a 12F race where saving energy is paramount, he's certainly not going to be running an early pace that other horses won't be able to keep up with if they wanted to.

It's your call @t6p. Do you want to try to cash a ticket that enables you to buy yourself a nice dinner? Or do you want to try to cash a ticket that enables you to buy yourself a new car?

I see where you’re going with this one Shark and I like it. I need to look closer and give this some thought.

 

[Sharkey]

I was looking to play some races tomorrow, but there's only a couple of horses that have what I'm looking for and neither are likely to be that great of prices;

Race 5 at Woodbine - #6 Switchblade 7/2 (26.9% = 3/1 fair odds)

Race 4 at Assiniboia Downs - #7 Cats West 5/2 (39.7% = 3/2 fair odds)

As always, I'm going to need a dry track and odds slightly above what I have for their fair odds. We'll see if I get either. $25 and $35 to win if I do.

 

[eataface]

Your slowly starting to.enjoy the announcer's voice at Assininoine Downs. Lol

 

[Sharkey]

Your slowly starting to.enjoy the announcer's voice at Assininoine Downs. Lol

Haha. Not likely, Eat. I haven't even looked to bet a race there (or anywhere actually) since last week when I got introduced to him.

 

[Sharkey]

I was looking to play some races tomorrow, but there's only a couple of horses that have what I'm looking for and neither are likely to be that great of prices;

Race 5 at Woodbine - #6 Switchblade 7/2 (26.9% = 3/1 fair odds)

That was frustrating. And a waste of time. This horse was sitting at 5/2 (just shy of 3/1) and I was just about to pull the trigger as they were loading into the gates. I really just wanted to get a bet in after quite a few days, so I was being a little forgiving in what odds I'd take. But I had to stop myself when some jerk out there knocked him down to 6/5 at the last second. Then the horse gets an easy, unpressured trip on the lead all around the track and wins at 8/5.

 

[FreddDS]

That was frustrating. And a waste of time. This horse was sitting at 5/2 (just shy of 3/1) and I was just about to pull the trigger as they were loading into the gates. I really just wanted to get a bet in after quite a few days, so I was being a little forgiving in what odds I'd take. But I had to stop myself when some jerk out there knocked him down to 6/5 at the last second. Then the horse gets an easy, unpressured trip on the lead all around the track and wins at 8/5.

Played it and won, thanks Sharkey as always!

 

[Sharkey]

Played it and won, thanks Sharkey as always!

Sorry about the price you had to settle for Fred. That horse was sitting as the 3rd and 4th choice in the multi-race pools, so I figured it would for sure go off at playable odds for me. Seeing it drop from almost 3/1 to 6/5 was a kick in the nuts, though. Glad he was at least able to come through for you.

 

[Sharkey]

Even money on this horse at Assiniboia Downs is a no thanks from me as well.

 

[FreddDS]

Sorry about the price you had to settle for Fred. That horse was sitting as the 3rd and 4th choice in the multi-race pools, so I figured it would for sure go off at playable odds for me. Seeing it drop from almost 3/1 to 6/5 was a kick in the nuts, though. Glad he was at least able to come through for you.

It's all good, I'll take that win any day!

 

[Sharkey]

Even money on this horse at Assiniboia Downs is a no thanks from me as well.

Thankfully too. The horse was never involved and ended up a distant 2nd. There can always be a bright side to a horse getting overbet I guess.

 

[Black Paladin]

6/7 Belmont Triple Crown Warm-Up:

Turf
Race 5 #9 IM THE CAPTAIN NOW (12/1)

 

[Sharkey]

6/7 Belmont Triple Crown Warm-Up:

Turf
Race 5 #9 IM THE CAPTAIN NOW (12/1)

Thanks for posting your play, BP.

 

[Sharkey]

A couple of possibilities for me today;

Race 6 at Delaware Park - #6 Foxy Joxy 7/2 (24.8% = 3/1 fair odds)

Race 5 at Penn National - #7 Let's Be Frank 9/2 (30.2% = 5/2 fair odds)

Same deal as always. Need a dry track along with the right odds. Hopefully this isn't another waste of time.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Couple fun lines here. Any strong opinions?

 

[Sharkey]

Couple fun lines here. Any strong opinions?

I haven't even looked at Friday or Saturday's races yet, K, but if you want I can do the numbers for some of those later on today and see if something stands out.