Kentucky Derby and Beyond (Part Deuce)

[Black Paladin]

Sunday, May 1, 2022

Happy May Day!

I haven't done a full card in a while. So, not just one, but two: Gulfstream and Belmont Park.

Even though I will post all the races, in reality I would personally pass on any expected winners with less than 3-1 morning line odds.

Gulfstream Park

RACE 01..............#12 Poetic Code (7-2) (breaking maiden after great workouts)
RACE 02..............#1 Gitana (4-5) (speed of the race)
RACE 03..............#4 Sunset Provision (3-1) (dropping trying to break maiden)
RACE 04..............#9 Little Belita (7-2)
RACE 05..............#Lamplighter Jack (7-2) (speed of the race)
RACE 06..............#7 Uranium (5-2) (dropping trying to break maiden)
RACE 07..............#3 Knowwhentofoldem (9-2)
RACE 08..............#2 Psychedelic Shack (7-2)
RACE 09..............#10 Sea Lioness (20-1) (dropping trying to break maiden)

================================================

Belmont Park

RACE 01..............#2 Colloquy (6-5) (speed of the race, dropping trying to break maiden)
RACE 02..............#6 Sundaeswithsandy (8-1) (dropping in class)
RACE 03..............#1 Toughtickets (7-5) (speed of the race, great workouts)
RACE 04..............#5 Mozay (5-2)
RACE 05..............#2 Soldier Rising (7-5) (dropping in class to beat some ass)
RACE 06..............#2 Amity Island (6-5) (dropping in class)
RACE 07..............#2 Best Idea (3-1) (speed of the race, class of the race)
RACE 08..............#2 Too Sexy (1-1)
RACE 09..............#6 Baltasar (9-2)

 

[Black Paladin]

Sunday, May 1, 2022

Happy May Day!

I haven't done a full card in a while. So, not just one, but two: Gulfstream and Belmont Park.

Even though I will post all the races, in reality I would personally pass on any expected winners with less than 3-1 morning line odds.

Gulfstream Park

RACE 01..............#12 Poetic Code (7-2) (breaking maiden after great workouts)
RACE 02..............#1 Gitana (4-5) (speed of the race)
RACE 03..............#4 Sunset Provision (3-1) (dropping trying to break maiden)
RACE 04..............#9 Little Belita (7-2)
RACE 05..............#Lamplighter Jack (7-2) (speed of the race)
RACE 06..............#7 Uranium (5-2) (dropping trying to break maiden)
RACE 07..............#3 Knowwhentofoldem (9-2)
RACE 08..............#2 Psychedelic Shack (7-2)
RACE 09..............#10 Sea Lioness (20-1) (dropping trying to break maiden)

================================================

Belmont Park

RACE 01..............#2 Colloquy (6-5) (speed of the race, dropping trying to break maiden)
RACE 02..............#6 Sundaeswithsandy (8-1) (dropping in class)
RACE 03..............#1 Toughtickets (7-5) (speed of the race, great workouts)
RACE 04..............#5 Mozay (5-2)
RACE 05..............#2 Soldier Rising (7-5) (dropping in class to beat some ass)
RACE 06..............#2 Amity Island (6-5) (dropping in class)
RACE 07..............#2 Best Idea (3-1) (speed of the race, class of the race)
RACE 08..............#2 Too Sexy (1-1)
RACE 09..............#6 Baltasar (9-2)

KEY:
WINNER - FIRST
PLACE/SHOW - SECOND OR THIRD
LOSER
SCRATCHED

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Black Paladin]

 

[Black Paladin]

@BluntTrauma21


TRI 12-6-1



@Sharkey

Trainer/Jockey combos that stand out for me:

#1 Mo Donegal (PLETCHER/ORTIZ)
#3 Epicenter (ASMUSSEN/ROSARIO)
#10 Zandon (BROWN/PRAT)

 

[Black Paladin]

@t6p

TRI 12-6-1

Don't think you are forgotten.

 

[Sharkey]

My top 8 for the Derby (those above random) along with the fair odds I've come up with for them;


#6 Messier 7/1
---
#12 Taiba 10/1
---
#3 Epicenter 12/1
#5 Smile Happy 13/1
#15 White Abarrio 13/1
#10 Zandon 13/1
#1 Mo Donegal 14/1
---
#14 Barber Road 19/1


I'll probably just play Messier to win and on top in some exotics. Maybe get lucky. It would also make for a cool little story up here if a Canadian horse won the Derby for the first time in forever as well.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Sharkey]

Epicenter a slight favourite over Taiba, Zandon and Messier in the doubles;

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I'm coming off a TC last year and I have done a terrible job at looking at this race b/c I'm lazy and I'm stupid. But I do have a backup plan and it is always one that is +EV strategy It's called the Tail Sharkey Strategy.

Messier to show and to win at +200 /+700 respectfully. OH CANADA!

 

[Sharkey]

I'm coming off a TC last year and I have done a terrible job at looking at this race b/c I'm lazy and I'm stupid. But I do have a backup plan and it is always one that is +EV strategy It's called the Tail Sharkey Strategy.

Messier to show and to win at +200 /+700 respectfully. OH CANADA!

Best of luck to you Blunt. Going by the name of your strategy I'm thinking you just might need a bunch of it.

 

[Black Paladin]

A bomb came in.

 

[Sharkey]

A bomb came in.

The 2nd biggest longshot in Derby history. I'm still a bit stunned.

 

[Sharkey]

Just one of the eight Grade 1 races that will be run on Saturday at Belmont;

 

[guesswhoseback]

Race 5 woodbine for 4th leg of pick 5 I need the 5 or 7 race 5 then the 5 in race 6 2 is gonna be the fav in race 5 so might hedge