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I get that, but the reason I bring those things up is that while Tafa is definitely the most dangerous striker Karl has faced so far, we've seen him leave tons of openings that could lead to takedowns against better guys.
And sure, Mo is a bigger athlete than Karl, but he's a downright mediocre wrestler at best. I mean, he's got an 18% takedown rate for a reason. He's just a buff guy, back in the regionals Don'Tale Mayes shut his game down easily because of it. So as far as keeping TDD rate in context, I genuinely believe that even conceding more than 1 takedown to Mo of all people means you're absolutely lost when it comes to wrestling, which would track given Junior's background.
I actually rate Don'Tale Mayes more than most, for what little it's worth... I agree that Usman's offensive wrestling game is often overvalued in part due to his name when in fact he relies heavily on his physicality to achieve success scoring takedowns or winning clinch exchanges, as I alluded to in my initial post. That said, sadly he's still probably a better wrestler than a lot of other Heavyweights in the division all things considered.
Insofar as the expected outcome of the fight is concerned, that is after all the way I am also leaning. I believe and hope that Karl is capable of taking down, holding down, and grinding out Tafa if he comes correct. It's just hard for me to have any supreme degree of confidence after Karl damn near lost what should have been a lay-up in the eyes of many. Because even if we do accept the premise that "Chase Sherman's TDD >>> Junior Tafa's TDD" -- which I don't have trouble accepting I guess based on available evidence -- there is still the matter that you have a much smaller margin for error with the latter. You fail a takedown against Chase Sherman? No biggie, you can reshoot or even potentially steal the round from him with a remotely active striking game. You fail a takedown or even have a lazy entry against Tafa and you are legitimately taking your life into your own hands.
So yeah, I'm riding with Karl and fading Junior, but I'll be anxious the whole time lol.