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Jonathan beating Daniel is currently way overplayed in betting

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Melas Chasma

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This happens everytime with popular fighters on a long winning streaks: people start to overrate them and some even go as far as saying retarded shit like "Fighter X can not be beaten", "Fighter Y has a zero chance against fighter X", "Fighter X wins 99 out of 100 times", etc etc. It happened with Fedor, Silva, Conor, Ronda etc. And it also happened with Jones already a years ago. Best fighters are often the most overrated at the same time. You either get it or you dont.

Jonathan is currently around -300 favorite, meaning he should be around 74-75% favorite for you to get even + - 0 long term value if you bet on Jonathan. Thats bullshit. Based on their first, highly competitive fight, there is nothing to suggest he is that big of a favorite in a long run against Daniel. He didnt even look his old self in his last fight, and everyone should remember this time Daniel is the champion which means he will probably have a better chance to get possible razor close rounds to be scored in his favor.

What we are looking here is around 60/40 fight for Jones, just like the first time. Maybe even less, because DC is riding with a better momemtum, imo. A very close fight is the most likely outcome, no matter who takes it.

Im telling you, betting on Daniel with his current +250 line is highly + EV in a long run. He beats current Jones at least 3 times out of 10, likely more.

You can thank me later when you are rich, you goofs.
 
I'm the oracle here. You sound like their personal priest at best.
 
Sooooo you betting on DC or not? I'm confused.....
 
Cormier is old, coming off an injury. I'm going with the best LHW of all time.
 
Jonathan.......

LOL_o_92180.jpg
 
Hans Gercmiov said:
Cormier is old, coming off an injury. I'm going with the best LHW of all time.
Click to expand...

Its true that DCs injury is a bit question mark, but I dont think his age compared to first fight is a real factor. Damage he took against Gustafsson could be, but it is possible that fight/experience also helped him in some ways. His cardio looked very good against the son of Gustaf.
 
Melas Chasma said:
This happens everytime with popular fighters on a long winning streaks: people start to overrate them and some even go as far as saying retarded shit like "Fighter X can not be beaten", "Fighter Y has a zero chance against fighter X", "Fighter X wins 99 out of 100 times", etc etc. It happened with Fedor, Silva, Conor, Ronda etc. And it also happened with Jones already a years ago. Best fighters are often the most overrated at the same time. You either get it or you dont.

Jonathan is currently around -300 favorite, meaning he should be around 74-75% favorite for you to get even + - 0 long term value if you bet on Jonathan. Thats bullshit. Based on their first, highly competitive fight, there is nothing to suggest he is that big of a favorite in a long run against Daniel. He didnt even look his old self in his last fight, and everyone should remember this time Daniel is the champion which means he will probably have a better chance to get possible razor close rounds to be scored in his favor.

What we are looking here is around 60/40 fight for Jones, just like the first time. Maybe even less, because DC is riding with a better momemtum, imo. A very close fight is the most likely outcome, no matter who takes it.

Im telling you, betting on Daniel with his current +250 line is highly + EV in a long run. He beats current Jones at least 3 times out of 10, likely more.

You can thank me later when you are rich, you goofs.
Click to expand...
Interesting well thought out comments.
 
DC actually has better odds now.

Before the osp fight when they were suppose to rematch, his odds were at around +300......this means the bookies/beters saw red flags in Jones, OSP performance.

I agree, the first fight was much closer, the first 3 rounds specially

..Jones didn't look that good and he is not partying which I feel is bad for him(some ppl need drugs/alcohol to be at full potential).

I'll bet on DC.
 
The only way Cormier wins is if Jones pulls a Rockhold.

Jones is nowhere near as cocky as Rockhold and definitely nowhere near as dumb.

Cormier gets embarrassed.
 
Melas Chasma said:
Based on their first, highly competitive fight
Click to expand...
I might have to rewatch it, but I remember Jon in complete control the whole fight.

The problem for me is DC's height. Jon really knows how to use his size to his advantage, which is a nightmare for Daniel.

Throw in Jon's wrestling base and you have a horrible match up for DC.
 
i agree the line doesnt look right, but jones has that confidence and out alpha'd cormier last time - that has a very strong impact on fan perception - it doesnt surprise me that people view the fight differently than how it really went down - they're just buyig into jones's confidence - thast how people here think about stuff mainly - if someone is really confident, it sways people - then when that confident fighter loses, people go to town on them and post tons of gifs etc - thast how it works here
 
Melas Chasma said:
This happens everytime with popular fighters on a long winning streaks: people start to overrate them and some even go as far as saying retarded shit like "Fighter X can not be beaten", "Fighter Y has a zero chance against fighter X", "Fighter X wins 99 out of 100 times", etc etc. It happened with Fedor, Silva, Conor, Ronda etc. And it also happened with Jones already a years ago. Best fighters are often the most overrated at the same time. You either get it or you dont.

Jonathan is currently around -300 favorite, meaning he should be around 74-75% favorite for you to get even + - 0 long term value if you bet on Jonathan. Thats bullshit. Based on their first, highly competitive fight, there is nothing to suggest he is that big of a favorite in a long run against Daniel. He didnt even look his old self in his last fight, and everyone should remember this time Daniel is the champion which means he will probably have a better chance to get possible razor close rounds to be scored in his favor.

What we are looking here is around 60/40 fight for Jones, just like the first time. Maybe even less, because DC is riding with a better momemtum, imo. A very close fight is the most likely outcome, no matter who takes it.

Im telling you, betting on Daniel with his current +250 line is highly + EV in a long run. He beats current Jones at least 3 times out of 10, likely more.

You can thank me later when you are rich, you goofs.
Click to expand...


It's the usage of "Jonathan" and "Daniel" that's what makes this thread interesting. Everything else is pedestrian.
 
I think it's probably about right. Cormier has a good chance of beating Jones but no better than last time.
 
Melas Chasma said:
This happens everytime with popular fighters on a long winning streaks: people start to overrate them and some even go as far as saying retarded shit like "Fighter X can not be beaten", "Fighter Y has a zero chance against fighter X", "Fighter X wins 99 out of 100 times", etc etc. It happened with Fedor, Silva, Conor, Ronda etc. And it also happened with Jones already a years ago. Best fighters are often the most overrated at the same time. You either get it or you dont.

Jonathan is currently around -300 favorite, meaning he should be around 74-75% favorite for you to get even + - 0 long term value if you bet on Jonathan. Thats bullshit. Based on their first, highly competitive fight, there is nothing to suggest he is that big of a favorite in a long run against Daniel. He didnt even look his old self in his last fight, and everyone should remember this time Daniel is the champion which means he will probably have a better chance to get possible razor close rounds to be scored in his favor.

What we are looking here is around 60/40 fight for Jones, just like the first time. Maybe even less, because DC is riding with a better momemtum, imo. A very close fight is the most likely outcome, no matter who takes it.

Im telling you, betting on Daniel with his current +250 line is highly + EV in a long run. He beats current Jones at least 3 times out of 10, likely more.

You can thank me later when you are rich, you goofs.
Click to expand...
I will be impressed if you bet 5k & post your slip here.
Betting against Jones is not wise, especially with that dubious reasoning.
 
I'd bet on DC but Jones is going to win.
 
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