As crazy as it sounds, I could actually see Chuck winning this fight. Jones isn't very good at boxing and tends to take a decent amount of punches every fight. He also looked very beatable the last time he had a long layoff and was clean (the OSP) fight. Also even though Jones is talented, he is very egotistical and tends to be arrogant. I remember him claiming he wanted to box Klitschko before he got lit up by Gustafsson.
I could at least see a scenario where Jones doesn't take Chuck seriously, does something stupid like drop his hands and stick his chin out and then get hit. Chuck should still have decent power and he could hurt Jones if he lands some good shots.
With that said Chuck has no chin anymore so he likely wouldn't be able to take much before going out.
Jones should be able to win this fight with ease but it isn't impossible to think that he would allow his ego to get the best of him and get clipped in the process.