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I think Overeem beats Jon Jones, too much size difference.
In this instance Dana was right. Just because he lost the first fight at UFC 140 doesn't mean he won't beat Jones in the rematch. If anything that fight and his loss to Rua have made him the fighter he is today.. Look at where Shogun is in his career.. Machida keeps improving with time. Eventually his prime will be over. Now is the time for him to make his last run at the title and you are crazy for counting a warrior like him out. He is the best striker at LHW and Jones did not walk him down the entire time.. You need to watch the fight again and stop being so biased. It is kinda sad. Machida clearly walked Jon to the center of the octagon put his hands up and started throwing leather Without Jon needing to press forward.. Yes there were quite a few instances of Jon coming forward but that's because he was trying to adjust to Machida's striking game. He did try using Lyoto's game against him. You are right about that. However the point you made that was the most valid is when you said Machida could only beat Jones if he got his wrestling up to par. He has been training wrestling in California under Kenny Johnson.. He lives in the US and his training is probably the best it's ever been.. Oh well. We will see when they rematch. Unless Jones runs away to hide from him at HW.Who cares what Dana says, I thought Rampage beat Forrest Griffen but it doesnt change the fact that Rampage lost to Forrest Griffen. Dana says a lot of shit, he isnt an MMA fighter nor analyst. A fighter saying it would be more credible then Dana white.
Lyoto lost on the judges cards. Had Lyoto put a dominant stand up fight against Jones or had Machida dominated jones in the stand up, he would have won that round easily with no problems.
Jones landed the same amount of strikes as machida and walked Machida down the entire fight in the first round with Machida countering jones. Most of Machidas strikes came from counters whereas jones controlled the pace and walked Machida down, so he got the nod from the judges.
Also mind you that jones was playing Machidas striking game if you watched the fight. Everyone though jones was going to take Machida down in the first round but pushed to strike with Machida. Jones is not an elite striker, he is an elite wrestler who actually stood and won rounds against an elite striker in Machida.
You also say Machida would win in a rematch, so why didnt he beat jones the first time and it didnt even get out of the second round. When jones switched to his main MMA attribute which was Wrestling he dominated Machida and cut him open and submitted him easily in the second.
Machida showed he has problems with Jones main attribute which is wrestling whereas jones showed he can compete with Machida in his main attribute which is striking.
Machida wont beat jones unless he has fixed his wrestling deficiencies which were apparent when jones barely broke a sweat when he brought his wrestling into the fight.