Paulo Costa is a walking, talking definition of the adage, "Your best offense is your best defense."
When you fight someone in the center of the ring, especially a taller fighter, and you rush -in (like Whittaker did) that's the hardest you can possibly be hit—if the taller fighter has his feet planted and times you right.
But that's not how Costa fights. He doesn't jump in there, he walks you down (at a very fast pace) walks right through your punches, blocking most—and never stops coming after you—which means Adessanya is going to be backpedaling. The moment a tall fighter starts backpedaling, especially if he's not allowed to set himself, all the leverage on his punches is gone. The more physical Costa is with Adessanya , the better his chances of winning.
And, BTW, Costa did not get dropped from a Uriah Hall's jab, but from an inside hook, elbow-in.
His strategy works great against almost any fighter but the best-of-the-best, but if we don't look at prior fights as examples to learn from then what's the point in watching and making analysis/predictions right? Against Hall, a very powerful striker that can be technical but has less weapons/fight IQ/ability to dictate range/jab/etc. had a lot of effective offense. He's the fighter most like Adesanya that Costa has fought, so I can see why you'd presume that since Adesanya is less powerful version of Hall (weak skinny guys right?) that Costa can use the same strategy against any opponent.
But Adesanya isn't any opponent, he's a world-class kickboxer knowing for being incredibly technical, defensively sound, likes to fight out the counter, and has a variety of insane kicks/knees to throw. He's shown this effectively in MMA and we've yet to see anyone back him up into the cage and trap him there because he is really smart about not letting opponent back him up without setting up traps/escape/feints to buy time and make reads/adjustments. Costa is going to have to absorb a lot of damage if he wants to just pressure in behind
Walking down someone that is taller, has longer reach, is faster, has better technical footwork, and can kick really well does not seem to be the ideal strategy, but I guess we will find out. Not sure why you think Adesanya will just back-pedal and trap himself against the cage since he's never done this and guys have tried to pressure him but he really, really wants to walk you into his strikes so it tends to benefit him. He's actually at his most exposed just sitting at distance when he's not in rhythm, Whittaker's dipping jab was catching him repeatedly.
Don't remember the exact strike Uriah threw, just that it was off his lead-hand and didn't look exceptionally powerful (just quick and that it surprised Costa with it's accuracy). I'll take your word for it though that it was a left-hook, do you think it was particularly powerful strike or just well-place (as I can't remember)?
For someone who claims to want to "intelligently discuss" the topic, your sarcastic insertions belie your true intent.
Again, Uriah Hall did not drop Costa with a jab but with a short hook.
2nd, Hall is a much stronger, more devastating puncher than Izzy.
3rd, you're right, it's absolutely possible that Izzy will catch Costa coming in, just like he caught Whittaker.
However, I don't think it's the same story.
For starters, I think Whittaker is chinney. He's been dropped many times, even knocked-out before, with one punch KOs. 2nd, Whittaker flies in there recklessly, hands down, chin up. Costa doesn't do this.
Paulo Costa is a stronger man than Whittaker, has a thicker skull than Whittaker, has a thicker neck than Whittaker, and I think is just a tougher man than Robert Whittaker. He also hits harder and is physically more imposing. If Izzy clips Costa, and drops him, it will not be devastating to Costa. I think Costa will get right back up and be hunting Izzy's ass, with renewed vigor, precisely as he's done in the past. He's a completely different animal than Robert Whittaker.
I would think posting multiple paragraphs with you in multiple posts with logical arguments strewn throughout would do enough to dissuade you of my intent. My apologies if my sarcasm offended, was just trying to take the piss out of things a little.
I don't think that Izzy will necessarily catch Costa with a counter-punch, I think he's going to be working behind a jab and low-kick, looking to set-up an occasional head-kick/body-kick and mainly trying to just control the distance and keep Costa from being able to get in to close from him. That will be the game we will likely see, Costa trying to figure out how effectively pressure and trap while avoiding all the damage and traps coming his way. His "high guard" strategy isn't the most defensively sound, it definitely works to bait opponents to brawl and can be effective in fire-fights, but it has a lot of risks with MMA gloves against highly technical strikers.
I don't disagree with you at all about the physical traits of Costa being superior to Whittaker. I do disagree that he will not be able to hurt him if he drops him. Getting dropped is the definition of getting hurt, your brain is not ready to get hit and reacts by falling over. Definitely a different animal than Whittaker, so we'll see how he responds to big shots if he does eat them - if he can walk threw flush head-kicks and dozens of sniper-jabs without issue then of course he is going to win. It seems you are indifferent as to whether Adesanya can land them, just that they will have no power/effect on Costa or the fight.
Completely disagree. Whittaker fought a lame fight against Adessanya, a stupid fight. He didn't pressure Izzy at all (I thought I covered this back in the beginning).
Whittaker stayed on the outside, then rushed-in blindly with haymakers, rather than walking Adessanya down in the style befitting Costa. He had no sustained body attack, and appeared to be going for the KO with every shot, rather than looking to wear Izzy out.
Again, Whittaker also does not have the physicality of Costa. Whittaker has a skinny neck and a somewhat small chin and facial structure. This is why he has been KO'd, and will likely be KO'd again in the future. Paulo Costa is simply a better specimen than Whittaker.
Robert Whittaker has never fought anyone with the same ferocity, and relentless pursuit, backing them up all over the cage like Costa has. He fought Yoel Romero sporadically, and carefully; were as Paulo Costa backed Romero up all over the ring.
Whittaker definitely fought a stupid fight against Adesanya, as he thought he could blitz-shift and catch Adesanya similar to Gastelum; except he's not a south-paw and he doesn't really slip punches to counter, he just leaps in and tries to blitz with the over-hand as a lead. But Whittaker never could fight the fight Costa can, like I said - different fighters, different weapons, different tools for the job to attack the holes they can. If anything Whittaker's jab was working really well and some of his low-kicks did as well; he was actually doing well when he wasn't throwing with power, but he couldn't stop himself it seems.
Your claims about Whittaker's chin is crazy - if anything the man had a chin of the Gods, the shots he ate against Romero were absolutely out of this world. But it's the shots you don't see that hurt you as I said prior - who KO'd Whittaker before Adesanya? Wonderboy, another rangy southpaw that likes to counter and fights in a similar style to Adesanya at times. Not known for KO'ing anyone, and yet he KO'd Whittaker, because it was technical and he didn't see it coming.
I was there live at the Costa/Romero fight, it was definitely a war for the ages.
You have an extremely high opinion of yourself and think you're the only person who analyzes fights properly. Newsflash pal, you're not always right, and other people can and will see things you won't.
We both fancy ourselves as "analysts," you in your name directly, me in my title. Next month we will know who is who.
I think reasonably highly of my MMA opinion, otherwise I wouldn't share it, but I'm by no means one of the best, just a guy with some food for thought. And definitely not the only person who analyzes fights properly though lol. Even though I disagree with you I've gained a lot of insight from your perspective and approach to understanding this match-up; it doesn't have to mean I think you are right to mean I don't value having the discussion itself.
I appreciate you sharing your thoughts and hope you enjoy the fight. If you want to bump this if Adesanya gets slept by all means....I won't if Adesanya wins, could care less, but all is fair play on the Sherdog.