Wrong. You've got it bass-ackards.
Costa needs to pressure and force activity (mistakes or no mistakes), and brutalize the body, and basically walk right through Izzy, imposing his will. And I think he will do this.
Skinny legs turn to rubber under pressure, hands go down, etc.
Lunging in against Izzy isn't the answer (like Gastelum and Whitaker); it's making Izzy backup and forcing him to fight for his life, nonstop.
Again, watch Hagler x Hearns ... where another absolutely rugged, absolutely muscular, absolute rock of a fighter pressured the "tall, skinny guy" ... turning him from a devastating boxer, into a frail, faltering strawman who fell to the pressure ... because Hearns couldn't hurt (or slow down) the better physical specimen of a man, Hagler, who intent on beating his ass from start to finish.
I don't think you understand MMA - you can't just "walk right through" someone that has length/reach/speed/technical footwork/better striking tools/etc.
What type of fighter is Izzy? He's a technical out-fighter, he wants to sit at range and snipe off opponents that either sit at distance or counter opponents that aren't able to effectively pressure (not technical enough with closing footwork/feints/etc. and can't match him in length/reach/speed so he has edges).
What type of fighter is Costa? He's a technical brawler that likes to pressure but does so pretty recklessly at times (Achilles heel of the brawler, complete faith in their chin as the last line of defense); he's willing to eat 2 to land 1 because he knows he takes damage better than his opponents (tougher than almost anyone), so he wants to walk opponents into the fence and then unload hell on their body.
You seem to have this idea that Costa is an unstoppable badass that can just absorb damage like it's nothing; as noted, he got dropped by a Uriah Hall jab and looked slightly hurt, so he is not some unstoppable god that can't be touched. He has a lot of defensive holes and the advantages are going to be significant - 4 inches of height, 8 inches of reach, going against someone that has the best linear striking in the division and most technical defensive footwork; that's not a recipe for success, that's a hell of a mountain to overcome.
Not saying Costa can't do it because the dude is an absolute beast and if can hurt or trap Izzy can certainly stun and finish him; if it's a smaller cage then I think his chances go up considerably, but in the 30-foot cage there is so much room to work with that it's almost impossible to trap opponents like Izzy (they will always stay on their bike to stay off the cage). I don't know why you think Izzy is going to just let himself get walked back into the cage and sit there when he's literally never done that in his entire MMA career.
Hagler vs. Hearns, while one of the greatest match-ups/short fights of all-time, was a boxing match - this isn't boxing though, there are more target areas then the head and body, more weapons then 4 types of punches, and there are a lot more strategies/tactics to employ so you aren't in non-stop fire-fight where you can't avoid getting hit. The reason Izzy is champ is because he's avoided brawling and forced opponents to fight him technically; maybe Costa can be the guy to change that and create a more Gastelum-like brawl in there where there are prolonged exchanges.
Also if we learned anything from that fight it was that Hearns employed a terrible strategy as he tried to brawl a brawler when he was a far superior technical boxer (remember that concept about brawling a boxer and brawling a boxer?). Strategy matters, it's not just about being a physical specimen - Hagler didn't force Hearns to brawl, that was a decision Hearns made in the first and it was a fatal mistake.
Since you are so confident please do share your bet-slip with us.
