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I was actually live at UFC 280 when Islam finished Charles to win the LW title. To say it was a shock back then for more recent fans was an understatement. Charles was quite literally probably the most vicious fighter we'd seen at 155 at the time, and had an insane ability to finish legends despite losing the majority of the fight beforehand. The fact that Islam outstruck charles on the feet, controlled him on the ground (pretty much answering the sambo vs bjj debate in mma at the time) and then dropped and subbed the submission king in 2 rounds at the time, was such an insane win, that pretty much forced him up the rankings to number 2 lb4lb almost instantaneously. Since then, he has climbed to no.1 with a series of impressive title defences. However on January 18th 2025 at UFC 311, he'll face the no.1 lightweight contender, Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch of their Fight of the Night grappling masterpiece back in 2019 (link below).
And despite Islam being a great as he has been, I believe this is the end of the road sadly and Arman will not only beat Islam but potentially brutally finish him. Stylistically, believe Makhachev is a better mixed martial artist than Arman, hes a cleaner striker, hes an overall better grappler, probably the only advantage id give Arman right now is his cardio and pace. Before you think I'm crazy, I also predicted that Volk would lose to Topuria (before the 2nd Islam fight): https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/volkanovski-will-lose-his-next-fight-vs-topuria.4304931/. so below are a list of reasons why I believe Makhachev will lose to Arman at UFC 311.
1) Rematch curse. We've seen this at WW twice now. A champion beats a contender when they're on their way up (Usman beat Leon in 2015, Leon beat Belal in 2021). The champion wins their belt and looks fairly dominant for a while. When the contender comes up, all the odds, fans and "experts" write them off, claiming the champion beat them once as a lesser fighter, so will do it again as a better version (usman was a -315 fav vs Leon at UFC 278, Leon was a -298 fav vs Belal, Islam is a -260 fav over Arman). What these "experts" fail to notice is that whilst any contender for a belt is motivated, a contender like Leon in 2022 or Belal this summer who has an opportunity to avenge a loss while winning a title is typically motivated to another degree, hence why they pull of the upset typically. When you hear any interview with Arman since the Islam loss, a large percentage of the conversation revolves around getting that win back, especially after Islam became champ. And I pretty much guarantee in any fight arman has had since losing to Islam and especially after Islam won the belt, a large part of his mental focus outside of his opponent in the fight, is to get the fight with Islam again and get that win back. So whilst Arman might not look the most impressive in all of his fights leading up to Islam, ( he got rocked by Joaquim Silva similar to how Leon got rocked by Nate or how Belal couldn't finish one armed Burns), I believe that his skillset upgrades and improvements will really show themselves to be true in the Islam rematch as thats the fight in his mind he's continually been working towards. So we will probably see the best version of Arman that we've ever seen on January 18th... speaking of which....
2) Islams Decline. This may sound crazy given Islam has looked fairly dominant as a champion, but the most recent fight of his vs Poirier did give me some reason to worry. dont get me wrong, Poirier is a savage and arguably the greatest fighter to never win a championship of all time... but if you're the best lb4lb fighter in the world, surely going back and forth over 5 rounds with an easy stylistic matchup like Poirier (who you're friend and mentor dismantled in 3 rds) is not a good look. Sure he had staph leading into the fight, and as it turned out, curse wise, he had a lot riding against him going into UFC 302 (). And sure, Islams striking looked world class in that fight and the submission was a thing of beauty, but the fact that he was unable to really control or dominate Poirier on the ground, nor was he totally dominating or in control of the whole fight (i scored it 3-1 but other than round 1, no round was a definitive Makhachev round that Poirier had no success in). I know Arman didn't look amazing against Charles and there's an argument he lost that fight but having a close fight with Charles (who is a very tough stylistic matchup for Arman) vs a close fight with Dustin (who is imo the easiest matchup in the top 5 for Islam) looks bette for Arman than it does Islam imo. And if Islam is struggling with 35 year old Poirier who's at the end of his career and was talking about retirement leading into the right, I struggle to see how he will dismantle a 28 year old extremely motivated Arman in January. Also considering his hand injury, where Arman appears to be mostly fit, its unlikely we see significant improvements in Makhachev since UFC 302 in comparison to what we'll see in Arman.
3) the Gamrot fight. Losses can sometimes be very beneficial in an MMA career. Islam himself went from being Ko'd by Adriano Martins to having some of the best striking at 155, such that he was able to outstrike Oliveira and Poirier and go back and forth with Volk in the first fight. Similarly, the Islam fight and the Gamrot fight probably were the best things to happen to Arman at 22 and 25 as they forced him to evaluate and develop his skillset further. I actually believe he won the Gamrot fight as he dropped him in the 4th, but still he made a lot of mistakes in the way he tried to force takedowns, and in his inability to successfully counter grapple or control a top grappler like Gamrot, similar to the issues he faced when he first fought Islam. However, immediately after that, he fought Ismagulov (who admittedly isn't anywhere near as good as Gamrot and Islam, but still had been a tough test for decent grapplers like Guram), and arman showed such improvements in his ability to control and dominate Ismagulov that it showed clear growth from the Gamrot fight imo. and where he gassed out against Gamrot, his cardio has looked fairly solid from that fight onwards. You can expect him to have also made improvements from the Oliveira fight so expect the best version of Arman we've seen going into the Islam fight in January...
4) Islam is no Khabib. Islam and Khabib are often mistakenly compared to to one another, but in reality, stylistically they are totally different. IMO, there is no Dagestani or Russian fighter quite like Khabib. his ability to dominate and control fighters, his relentless GNP, make them feel helpless and almost as if they're drowning across every round is something we haven't seen since. the closest resemblance probably has been Chimaev and even he slows down and has ineffective grappling in the later rounds, especially compared to Khabib. Islam is almost a totally different fighter. Where Khabib has one game plan to smash, Islam is a bit more of a GSP or DJ type in being extremely well rounded. He can outbox Poirier, outgrapple Oliveira, out MMA volk for instance. With certain fighters like Volk actually, I believe Islams style is better suited for dealing with it than Khabibs would. However, with a guy like Arman, I actually feel like Islams style is more vulnerable in that he doesn't have the same conditioning or relentless pace that Khabib does, and given that hes looked gassed against Poirier and Volk, going against a relentless force like Arman probably wouldn't work well with this skillset, whereas Arman himself admitted he'd probably have little to no success against a Khabib. Also Khabib had an iron chin and was never dropped. Islam has been Ko'd previously and was dropped pretty badly against Volkanovski.
5) LW title curse. Considering 155 is considered the premier division in mma, it is interesting to note that since its inception, no champ has had more than 3 title defences. Khabib had 3 and retired. BJ had 3 and lost to Frankie. Frankie had 3 and lost to Benson. Benson had 3 and lost to Pettis. Maybe Makhachev will break the trend and attain 4, but the past is often a good indication of whats to come.
As a fan and as a Muslim, I do hope im wrong, I wanna see Makhachev win against arman and challenge for double champ status at 170 and retire as one of the GOAts. But with the points ive laid above, I just dont see it happening. I believe the fight will unfold as follows. Arman will start agresssivley force islam on the back foot with body kicks and will actually control Makhachev for most of the first. Makhachev will adapt and have success in the 2nd and 3rd with his counter grappling and striking. However, Armans relentless pace will not stop and Islam will start slowing in the 4th. Then by the 5th, they will end up in a clinch situation and similar to the Dariush fight, Arman will drop and KO islam badly, becoming the new LW champ....
What do you think Sherbros, am I talking nonsense or will January signal the end of one of Islam as lb4lb no.1 and Armenians across the world to have pride in their first champ?
