Islam will probably lose to Arman at UFC 311...

Ahmed Masood

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I was actually live at UFC 280 when Islam finished Charles to win the LW title. To say it was a shock back then for more recent fans was an understatement. Charles was quite literally probably the most vicious fighter we'd seen at 155 at the time, and had an insane ability to finish legends despite losing the majority of the fight beforehand. The fact that Islam outstruck charles on the feet, controlled him on the ground (pretty much answering the sambo vs bjj debate in mma at the time) and then dropped and subbed the submission king in 2 rounds at the time, was such an insane win, that pretty much forced him up the rankings to number 2 lb4lb almost instantaneously. Since then, he has climbed to no.1 with a series of impressive title defences. However on January 18th 2025 at UFC 311, he'll face the no.1 lightweight contender, Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch of their Fight of the Night grappling masterpiece back in 2019 (link below).



And despite Islam being a great as he has been, I believe this is the end of the road sadly and Arman will not only beat Islam but potentially brutally finish him. Stylistically, believe Makhachev is a better mixed martial artist than Arman, hes a cleaner striker, hes an overall better grappler, probably the only advantage id give Arman right now is his cardio and pace. Before you think I'm crazy, I also predicted that Volk would lose to Topuria (before the 2nd Islam fight): https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/volkanovski-will-lose-his-next-fight-vs-topuria.4304931/. so below are a list of reasons why I believe Makhachev will lose to Arman at UFC 311.

1) Rematch curse. We've seen this at WW twice now. A champion beats a contender when they're on their way up (Usman beat Leon in 2015, Leon beat Belal in 2021). The champion wins their belt and looks fairly dominant for a while. When the contender comes up, all the odds, fans and "experts" write them off, claiming the champion beat them once as a lesser fighter, so will do it again as a better version (usman was a -315 fav vs Leon at UFC 278, Leon was a -298 fav vs Belal, Islam is a -260 fav over Arman). What these "experts" fail to notice is that whilst any contender for a belt is motivated, a contender like Leon in 2022 or Belal this summer who has an opportunity to avenge a loss while winning a title is typically motivated to another degree, hence why they pull of the upset typically. When you hear any interview with Arman since the Islam loss, a large percentage of the conversation revolves around getting that win back, especially after Islam became champ. And I pretty much guarantee in any fight arman has had since losing to Islam and especially after Islam won the belt, a large part of his mental focus outside of his opponent in the fight, is to get the fight with Islam again and get that win back. So whilst Arman might not look the most impressive in all of his fights leading up to Islam, ( he got rocked by Joaquim Silva similar to how Leon got rocked by Nate or how Belal couldn't finish one armed Burns), I believe that his skillset upgrades and improvements will really show themselves to be true in the Islam rematch as thats the fight in his mind he's continually been working towards. So we will probably see the best version of Arman that we've ever seen on January 18th... speaking of which....

2) Islams Decline. This may sound crazy given Islam has looked fairly dominant as a champion, but the most recent fight of his vs Poirier did give me some reason to worry. dont get me wrong, Poirier is a savage and arguably the greatest fighter to never win a championship of all time... but if you're the best lb4lb fighter in the world, surely going back and forth over 5 rounds with an easy stylistic matchup like Poirier (who you're friend and mentor dismantled in 3 rds) is not a good look. Sure he had staph leading into the fight, and as it turned out, curse wise, he had a lot riding against him going into UFC 302 (). And sure, Islams striking looked world class in that fight and the submission was a thing of beauty, but the fact that he was unable to really control or dominate Poirier on the ground, nor was he totally dominating or in control of the whole fight (i scored it 3-1 but other than round 1, no round was a definitive Makhachev round that Poirier had no success in). I know Arman didn't look amazing against Charles and there's an argument he lost that fight but having a close fight with Charles (who is a very tough stylistic matchup for Arman) vs a close fight with Dustin (who is imo the easiest matchup in the top 5 for Islam) looks bette for Arman than it does Islam imo. And if Islam is struggling with 35 year old Poirier who's at the end of his career and was talking about retirement leading into the right, I struggle to see how he will dismantle a 28 year old extremely motivated Arman in January. Also considering his hand injury, where Arman appears to be mostly fit, its unlikely we see significant improvements in Makhachev since UFC 302 in comparison to what we'll see in Arman.

3) the Gamrot fight. Losses can sometimes be very beneficial in an MMA career. Islam himself went from being Ko'd by Adriano Martins to having some of the best striking at 155, such that he was able to outstrike Oliveira and Poirier and go back and forth with Volk in the first fight. Similarly, the Islam fight and the Gamrot fight probably were the best things to happen to Arman at 22 and 25 as they forced him to evaluate and develop his skillset further. I actually believe he won the Gamrot fight as he dropped him in the 4th, but still he made a lot of mistakes in the way he tried to force takedowns, and in his inability to successfully counter grapple or control a top grappler like Gamrot, similar to the issues he faced when he first fought Islam. However, immediately after that, he fought Ismagulov (who admittedly isn't anywhere near as good as Gamrot and Islam, but still had been a tough test for decent grapplers like Guram), and arman showed such improvements in his ability to control and dominate Ismagulov that it showed clear growth from the Gamrot fight imo. and where he gassed out against Gamrot, his cardio has looked fairly solid from that fight onwards. You can expect him to have also made improvements from the Oliveira fight so expect the best version of Arman we've seen going into the Islam fight in January...

4) Islam is no Khabib. Islam and Khabib are often mistakenly compared to to one another, but in reality, stylistically they are totally different. IMO, there is no Dagestani or Russian fighter quite like Khabib. his ability to dominate and control fighters, his relentless GNP, make them feel helpless and almost as if they're drowning across every round is something we haven't seen since. the closest resemblance probably has been Chimaev and even he slows down and has ineffective grappling in the later rounds, especially compared to Khabib. Islam is almost a totally different fighter. Where Khabib has one game plan to smash, Islam is a bit more of a GSP or DJ type in being extremely well rounded. He can outbox Poirier, outgrapple Oliveira, out MMA volk for instance. With certain fighters like Volk actually, I believe Islams style is better suited for dealing with it than Khabibs would. However, with a guy like Arman, I actually feel like Islams style is more vulnerable in that he doesn't have the same conditioning or relentless pace that Khabib does, and given that hes looked gassed against Poirier and Volk, going against a relentless force like Arman probably wouldn't work well with this skillset, whereas Arman himself admitted he'd probably have little to no success against a Khabib. Also Khabib had an iron chin and was never dropped. Islam has been Ko'd previously and was dropped pretty badly against Volkanovski.

5) LW title curse. Considering 155 is considered the premier division in mma, it is interesting to note that since its inception, no champ has had more than 3 title defences. Khabib had 3 and retired. BJ had 3 and lost to Frankie. Frankie had 3 and lost to Benson. Benson had 3 and lost to Pettis. Maybe Makhachev will break the trend and attain 4, but the past is often a good indication of whats to come.

As a fan and as a Muslim, I do hope im wrong, I wanna see Makhachev win against arman and challenge for double champ status at 170 and retire as one of the GOAts. But with the points ive laid above, I just dont see it happening. I believe the fight will unfold as follows. Arman will start agresssivley force islam on the back foot with body kicks and will actually control Makhachev for most of the first. Makhachev will adapt and have success in the 2nd and 3rd with his counter grappling and striking. However, Armans relentless pace will not stop and Islam will start slowing in the 4th. Then by the 5th, they will end up in a clinch situation and similar to the Dariush fight, Arman will drop and KO islam badly, becoming the new LW champ....

What do you think Sherbros, am I talking nonsense or will January signal the end of one of Islam as lb4lb no.1 and Armenians across the world to have pride in their first champ?
 
Nah the Mak probably sets the all time LW title defense record.
 
Some decent thoughts but not a good look when your first reason is a curse.

Also, if you believe it you probably should put money on Arman. He's a decent underdog isn't he?
 
Islam hasn't performed as well in his last cpl outings outside of Abu-Dhabi. Australia & New Jersey saw very competitive fights going into round 5. A lot of ppl had both fights even after 4, I had Islam up 3-1 in each instance but was nervous because I had the farm riding on him.

It'll be interesting if Abu-Dhabi Islam can show up for this 1. Arman is younger, hungrier, and very tough stylistically for Islam.
 
Arman is good. I think he is like 15-20% worse in skillset than Islam, but he has a 30-40% chance in my opinion to upset Islam.
I think most people really underrate his striking. I'm a fan of his striking ability; he had a really good kickboxing/taekwando coach that transformed his striking. He has excellent kicking attack for someone who picked it up later, which is harder to do.
His wrestling is good, but I think his overall grappling game is a bit less advanced.
He has decent power as well.
Definitely will be a tough challenge for Islam, but I think he will prevail in a close affair.
 
Good post. I think the first few wrestling exchanges will decide this fight. If Arman can't establish an advantage with his grappling then his game will be severely limited and Islam will outstrike him to a decision. I don't think Arman will have the grappling advantage. Islam is just too fucking strong.
Also I feel Dustin is super underrated. I don't think many lightweights would have been the version of Dustin that showed up against Islam and as you said, Islam had staph.
70/30 Islam for me.
 
Interesting councidence, saw a vid on YT of Tsarukian training with Sadulaev yesterday and he looks beast AF. Tremendous wrestler.
 
Good post. I think the first few wrestling exchanges will decide this fight. If Arman can't establish an advantage with his grappling then his game will be severely limited and Islam will outstrike him to a decision. I don't think Arman will have the grappling advantage. Islam is just too fucking strong.
Also I feel Dustin is super underrated. I don't think many lightweights would have been the version of Dustin that showed up against Islam and as you said, Islam had staph.
70/30 Islam for me.
Call me crazy, wtf do i know, but i suspect Tsarukyan may be stronger/more physicsl than Islam, who is more timing based and more technical.
 
This is sherdog. I believe the UAE buff will balance out the hairline debuff. I don't think they announced the venue yet.

Seriously though I don't think Islam is going to get outwrestled but Arman is a bit wild on his feet. There is always a chance that Islam gets clipped by a wild punch. Arman ain't landing no axe or spinning kick on Islam. He is well prepared for that stuff.
 
Call me crazy, wtf do i know, but i suspect Tsarukyan may be stronger/more physicsl than Islam, who is more timing based and more technical.
Islam rag dolled Drew Dober who might be one of the strongest lws around. Also the fact that he can, apparently, match Khabib in sparring says a lot too.
Guess we'll find out soon. If Arman has the strength advantage, I'll be surprised.
 
Arman can win. I think he has to hurt Islam early and out work him. In the first Volk fight & Poirier fight it felt like Islam would take time off during rounds to conserve cardio. Arman should constantly pressure and pressure.
 
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I was actually live at UFC 280 when Islam finished Charles to win the LW title. To say it was a shock back then for more recent fans was an understatement. Charles was quite literally probably the most vicious fighter we'd seen at 155 at the time, and had an insane ability to finish legends despite losing the majority of the fight beforehand. The fact that Islam outstruck charles on the feet, controlled him on the ground (pretty much answering the sambo vs bjj debate in mma at the time) and then dropped and subbed the submission king in 2 rounds at the time, was such an insane win, that pretty much forced him up the rankings to number 2 lb4lb almost instantaneously. Since then, he has climbed to no.1 with a series of impressive title defences. However on January 18th 2025 at UFC 311, he'll face the no.1 lightweight contender, Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch of their Fight of the Night grappling masterpiece back in 2019 (link below).



And despite Islam being a great as he has been, I believe this is the end of the road sadly and Arman will not only beat Islam but potentially brutally finish him. Stylistically, believe Makhachev is a better mixed martial artist than Arman, hes a cleaner striker, hes an overall better grappler, probably the only advantage id give Arman right now is his cardio and pace. Before you think I'm crazy, I also predicted that Volk would lose to Topuria (before the 2nd Islam fight): https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/volkanovski-will-lose-his-next-fight-vs-topuria.4304931/. so below are a list of reasons why I believe Makhachev will lose to Arman at UFC 311.

1) Rematch curse. We've seen this at WW twice now. A champion beats a contender when they're on their way up (Usman beat Leon in 2015, Leon beat Belal in 2021). The champion wins their belt and looks fairly dominant for a while. When the contender comes up, all the odds, fans and "experts" write them off, claiming the champion beat them once as a lesser fighter, so will do it again as a better version (usman was a -315 fav vs Leon at UFC 278, Leon was a -298 fav vs Belal, Islam is a -260 fav over Arman). What these "experts" fail to notice is that whilst any contender for a belt is motivated, a contender like Leon in 2022 or Belal this summer who has an opportunity to avenge a loss while winning a title is typically motivated to another degree, hence why they pull of the upset typically. When you hear any interview with Arman since the Islam loss, a large percentage of the conversation revolves around getting that win back, especially after Islam became champ. And I pretty much guarantee in any fight arman has had since losing to Islam and especially after Islam won the belt, a large part of his mental focus outside of his opponent in the fight, is to get the fight with Islam again and get that win back. So whilst Arman might not look the most impressive in all of his fights leading up to Islam, ( he got rocked by Joaquim Silva similar to how Leon got rocked by Nate or how Belal couldn't finish one armed Burns), I believe that his skillset upgrades and improvements will really show themselves to be true in the Islam rematch as thats the fight in his mind he's continually been working towards. So we will probably see the best version of Arman that we've ever seen on January 18th... speaking of which....

2) Islams Decline. This may sound crazy given Islam has looked fairly dominant as a champion, but the most recent fight of his vs Poirier did give me some reason to worry. dont get me wrong, Poirier is a savage and arguably the greatest fighter to never win a championship of all time... but if you're the best lb4lb fighter in the world, surely going back and forth over 5 rounds with an easy stylistic matchup like Poirier (who you're friend and mentor dismantled in 3 rds) is not a good look. Sure he had staph leading into the fight, and as it turned out, curse wise, he had a lot riding against him going into UFC 302 (). And sure, Islams striking looked world class in that fight and the submission was a thing of beauty, but the fact that he was unable to really control or dominate Poirier on the ground, nor was he totally dominating or in control of the whole fight (i scored it 3-1 but other than round 1, no round was a definitive Makhachev round that Poirier had no success in). I know Arman didn't look amazing against Charles and there's an argument he lost that fight but having a close fight with Charles (who is a very tough stylistic matchup for Arman) vs a close fight with Dustin (who is imo the easiest matchup in the top 5 for Islam) looks bette for Arman than it does Islam imo. And if Islam is struggling with 35 year old Poirier who's at the end of his career and was talking about retirement leading into the right, I struggle to see how he will dismantle a 28 year old extremely motivated Arman in January. Also considering his hand injury, where Arman appears to be mostly fit, its unlikely we see significant improvements in Makhachev since UFC 302 in comparison to what we'll see in Arman.

3) the Gamrot fight. Losses can sometimes be very beneficial in an MMA career. Islam himself went from being Ko'd by Adriano Martins to having some of the best striking at 155, such that he was able to outstrike Oliveira and Poirier and go back and forth with Volk in the first fight. Similarly, the Islam fight and the Gamrot fight probably were the best things to happen to Arman at 22 and 25 as they forced him to evaluate and develop his skillset further. I actually believe he won the Gamrot fight as he dropped him in the 4th, but still he made a lot of mistakes in the way he tried to force takedowns, and in his inability to successfully counter grapple or control a top grappler like Gamrot, similar to the issues he faced when he first fought Islam. However, immediately after that, he fought Ismagulov (who admittedly isn't anywhere near as good as Gamrot and Islam, but still had been a tough test for decent grapplers like Guram), and arman showed such improvements in his ability to control and dominate Ismagulov that it showed clear growth from the Gamrot fight imo. and where he gassed out against Gamrot, his cardio has looked fairly solid from that fight onwards. You can expect him to have also made improvements from the Oliveira fight so expect the best version of Arman we've seen going into the Islam fight in January...

4) Islam is no Khabib. Islam and Khabib are often mistakenly compared to to one another, but in reality, stylistically they are totally different. IMO, there is no Dagestani or Russian fighter quite like Khabib. his ability to dominate and control fighters, his relentless GNP, make them feel helpless and almost as if they're drowning across every round is something we haven't seen since. the closest resemblance probably has been Chimaev and even he slows down and has ineffective grappling in the later rounds, especially compared to Khabib. Islam is almost a totally different fighter. Where Khabib has one game plan to smash, Islam is a bit more of a GSP or DJ type in being extremely well rounded. He can outbox Poirier, outgrapple Oliveira, out MMA volk for instance. With certain fighters like Volk actually, I believe Islams style is better suited for dealing with it than Khabibs would. However, with a guy like Arman, I actually feel like Islams style is more vulnerable in that he doesn't have the same conditioning or relentless pace that Khabib does, and given that hes looked gassed against Poirier and Volk, going against a relentless force like Arman probably wouldn't work well with this skillset, whereas Arman himself admitted he'd probably have little to no success against a Khabib. Also Khabib had an iron chin and was never dropped. Islam has been Ko'd previously and was dropped pretty badly against Volkanovski.

5) LW title curse. Considering 155 is considered the premier division in mma, it is interesting to note that since its inception, no champ has had more than 3 title defences. Khabib had 3 and retired. BJ had 3 and lost to Frankie. Frankie had 3 and lost to Benson. Benson had 3 and lost to Pettis. Maybe Makhachev will break the trend and attain 4, but the past is often a good indication of whats to come.

As a fan and as a Muslim, I do hope im wrong, I wanna see Makhachev win against arman and challenge for double champ status at 170 and retire as one of the GOAts. But with the points ive laid above, I just dont see it happening. I believe the fight will unfold as follows. Arman will start agresssivley force islam on the back foot with body kicks and will actually control Makhachev for most of the first. Makhachev will adapt and have success in the 2nd and 3rd with his counter grappling and striking. However, Armans relentless pace will not stop and Islam will start slowing in the 4th. Then by the 5th, they will end up in a clinch situation and similar to the Dariush fight, Arman will drop and KO islam badly, becoming the new LW champ....

What do you think Sherbros, am I talking nonsense or will January signal the end of one of Islam as lb4lb no.1 and Armenians across the world to have pride in their first champ?

Arman gasses in a grappling heavy fights, he gassed in the 3rd against Islam and gassed badly against Gamrot
 
I stopped reading once I read that Leon beat Belal back in 2021. Sure Leon was winning but he also fouled Belal big time and was the lone reason that fight didn't continue but everyone just chalked it up as a win for Leon regardless. So dumb.
 
1) Islam will win a competitive decision. 2) Arman will be over-hyped as a win over a "#1 ranked guy" despite him having a paper thin resume. 3) Islam will retire as "The GOAT" leaving Arman in a likely place to take over the division, 4) a new prospect will run through the ridiculously aged top 10 and blast through Arman in more impressive fashion allowing the GOAT title to leap frog to the current flavor of the month yet again
 
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