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So this is my final prediction.
At first, I thought Islam was going to wipe the floor with him. Mendes literally took Volk down with no resistance, though he did get up every time. Islam is bigger with a better top game and Mendes probably was past his prime in that one too.
Then, after thinking about it over some time and kinda reviewing things, I then flip-floped and said that Volkanovski would finish Islam on the feet in round 3 or 4. That was based on certain assumptions that,
a) Volk isn't dwarfed by Islam in size and strength not by a lot.
b) Volk will be able to get up when taken down and fend off submissions.
b) Volk is not slowed down by his additional body weight, because as we've seen in the past, not everyone responds well to weight class changes.
Then, with the fight coming up, I kept thinking about this fight, kinda looking at things, and I think that Islam will outstrike Volk if not finish him. This would be my final prediction. This makes certain assumptions that
a) Islam is not looking past Volkanovski nor underestimating.
b) Islam is not hurt by not having Khabib around for the first time in a very long time.
because if Islam is doing so, then I see Volk sending him to a shadow realm.
I'm going to assume that all the assumptions I made in my thought process are to be mostly true. Not that I assume such, but more so that I think those assumptions are more likely true than not. People may think that if all the assumptions I made are held true, then it may be reasonable to assume Volkanovski is favoured, and it felt that way to me too, but thinking about this fight, I reached a different conclusion.
In this fight, I suspect Volkanovski will come in with a similar game plan that he utilized against Mendes. He will come to pressure Islam, and put Islam on the back foot. Thing is I'm of a personal opinion that Volk is better moving backwards or in the open space using his angles, footworks and kicks and combinations than trying to be the aggressor with his hands. I mean he's good either way, I mean he's great, but I think he's BETTER the other way around. Against Mendes, he was dropped walking forward and he really wasn't reacting well to Mendes's shots either. Great either way, I think he's greater the other way.
Thing is, Islam is very hard to hit. No one will go and say oh Islam is a defensive savant, but the guy has a great footwork. Islam arguably is Volkanovskis' opponent with the best footwork to date. Volk ended up fighting tons of guys in UFC who comes in straight lines and in his face. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't say it's arguably, I think Islam will be Volkanovski's opponent with the best footwork to date, and I don't think it's close either. I just think for some reason, Islam doesn't get the love and respect he deserves.
I expect Islam will be able to take Volkanovski down, but I think Volkanovski will be able to survive and get up. The expectations if that happens is that Volk will be able to outstrike Islam handidly, but I don't think it will be the case. If Volk fights like he usually does, he's pretty hard to hit too, but I don't expect that to be the game plan and he will press the action. He's still hard to hit that way too clearly, but less so.
If you like stats, then let's take a look at small stats for example. Evloev at featherweight is 16-0, with a dominant grappling, and one or two fights away from a title shot against Volkanovski himself. We all can agree he's a real deal. When he fought Nick Lentz, he was 46/127 in sig strikes. Against Islam, he was 13/35. Now you can look at the takedowns, so let's look at the fight with few TDs.
Davi Ramos, the ADCC champ, fought both Islam and Arman back to back. Ramos was actually a legit prospect, but ran into those two back to back, which was unfortunate since he left UFC after but I digress. Ramos was 7/58 for significant strikes against Islam with 0 TD in the fiight and he was 33/103 against Arman with 1 TD for Arman.
If you are going, mehh those stats mean nothing, well, I'm not much of a stats guy either. UFC decided to one day just throw it out there alongside many of things they came out with over the years. Fighting is fighting. Two hands, two legs, may the best man win. But just something one can consider.
At the end of the day, I think there will be some surprises in this fight. I think Volk will be better on the ground than Islam thinks. But I think what will happen is that on the flip side, Islam is also better on the feet than what everyone thinks including Volk. Volk will come forward, will be able to survive on the ground, but Islam will hit him more than he can. I think Islam will land more on Volkanovski than Alex will, and I wouldn't be surprised if Islam takes him out of there by catching him coming in either, and clearly submission is always a possibility in this fight because takedowns will be there.
With that said, I hope I'm wrong and War Volkanovski.
At first, I thought Islam was going to wipe the floor with him. Mendes literally took Volk down with no resistance, though he did get up every time. Islam is bigger with a better top game and Mendes probably was past his prime in that one too.
Then, after thinking about it over some time and kinda reviewing things, I then flip-floped and said that Volkanovski would finish Islam on the feet in round 3 or 4. That was based on certain assumptions that,
a) Volk isn't dwarfed by Islam in size and strength not by a lot.
b) Volk will be able to get up when taken down and fend off submissions.
b) Volk is not slowed down by his additional body weight, because as we've seen in the past, not everyone responds well to weight class changes.
Then, with the fight coming up, I kept thinking about this fight, kinda looking at things, and I think that Islam will outstrike Volk if not finish him. This would be my final prediction. This makes certain assumptions that
a) Islam is not looking past Volkanovski nor underestimating.
b) Islam is not hurt by not having Khabib around for the first time in a very long time.
because if Islam is doing so, then I see Volk sending him to a shadow realm.
I'm going to assume that all the assumptions I made in my thought process are to be mostly true. Not that I assume such, but more so that I think those assumptions are more likely true than not. People may think that if all the assumptions I made are held true, then it may be reasonable to assume Volkanovski is favoured, and it felt that way to me too, but thinking about this fight, I reached a different conclusion.
In this fight, I suspect Volkanovski will come in with a similar game plan that he utilized against Mendes. He will come to pressure Islam, and put Islam on the back foot. Thing is I'm of a personal opinion that Volk is better moving backwards or in the open space using his angles, footworks and kicks and combinations than trying to be the aggressor with his hands. I mean he's good either way, I mean he's great, but I think he's BETTER the other way around. Against Mendes, he was dropped walking forward and he really wasn't reacting well to Mendes's shots either. Great either way, I think he's greater the other way.
Thing is, Islam is very hard to hit. No one will go and say oh Islam is a defensive savant, but the guy has a great footwork. Islam arguably is Volkanovskis' opponent with the best footwork to date. Volk ended up fighting tons of guys in UFC who comes in straight lines and in his face. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't say it's arguably, I think Islam will be Volkanovski's opponent with the best footwork to date, and I don't think it's close either. I just think for some reason, Islam doesn't get the love and respect he deserves.
I expect Islam will be able to take Volkanovski down, but I think Volkanovski will be able to survive and get up. The expectations if that happens is that Volk will be able to outstrike Islam handidly, but I don't think it will be the case. If Volk fights like he usually does, he's pretty hard to hit too, but I don't expect that to be the game plan and he will press the action. He's still hard to hit that way too clearly, but less so.
If you like stats, then let's take a look at small stats for example. Evloev at featherweight is 16-0, with a dominant grappling, and one or two fights away from a title shot against Volkanovski himself. We all can agree he's a real deal. When he fought Nick Lentz, he was 46/127 in sig strikes. Against Islam, he was 13/35. Now you can look at the takedowns, so let's look at the fight with few TDs.
Davi Ramos, the ADCC champ, fought both Islam and Arman back to back. Ramos was actually a legit prospect, but ran into those two back to back, which was unfortunate since he left UFC after but I digress. Ramos was 7/58 for significant strikes against Islam with 0 TD in the fiight and he was 33/103 against Arman with 1 TD for Arman.
If you are going, mehh those stats mean nothing, well, I'm not much of a stats guy either. UFC decided to one day just throw it out there alongside many of things they came out with over the years. Fighting is fighting. Two hands, two legs, may the best man win. But just something one can consider.
At the end of the day, I think there will be some surprises in this fight. I think Volk will be better on the ground than Islam thinks. But I think what will happen is that on the flip side, Islam is also better on the feet than what everyone thinks including Volk. Volk will come forward, will be able to survive on the ground, but Islam will hit him more than he can. I think Islam will land more on Volkanovski than Alex will, and I wouldn't be surprised if Islam takes him out of there by catching him coming in either, and clearly submission is always a possibility in this fight because takedowns will be there.
With that said, I hope I'm wrong and War Volkanovski.
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