International Isis/syria/iraq thread

[Fronk]

If you honestly believe that iv a bridge in london to sell you

 

[Rod1]

If you honestly believe that iv a bridge in london to sell you

There will be pockets of resistance but how much logistical capabilities will the rebels have without a stronghld? i presume not much.

Unless Russia and Turkey have a falling out the conflict will now turn into a low intensity guerrilla warfare.

 

[Videer]

There will be pockets of resistance but how much logistical capabilities will the rebels have without a stronghld? i presume not much.

Unless Russia and Turkey have a falling out the conflict will now turn into a low intensity guerrilla warfare.

Those strongholds are in Idlib, not in eastern Aleppo.

 

[Lonesome Crow]

Most of the airforce coup guys were officers if i recall, the pilots are largely still there.

Fucking Christ. You clearly have absolutely no military experience.

Pilots are officers.

And just to reiterate the point, Turkey purged 350 pilots from their Air Force this year. Then when you factor in all the support crew (maintenance, loaders, avionics techs, etc) who were also purged, and you are left with an Air Force that is extremely limited in its capabilities. Which is why they're literally begging for some of the people they fired to come back:

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-de...ce-seeks-to-lure-back-seasoned-pilots-2016-11

The Turkish Air Force was never all that good to begin with; now they're operating at a capability on par with Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, after those geniuses in Tehran decided to execute anybody in the Iranian military who knew what the fuck they were doing.

Note: even in it's severely diminished capacity, the TAF would merc the SyAF but to ask them to establish air superiority over the SyAF, take out Syrian air defences, and provide effective CAS is not feasible. Then when you factor in the presence of RuAF, it becomes impossible. Only the USAF can accomplish that.

 

[whougonnacall]

There will be pockets of resistance but how much logistical capabilities will the rebels have without a stronghld? i presume not much.

Unless Russia and Turkey have a falling out the conflict will now turn into a low intensity guerrilla warfare.

They still have large parts of the country and are carving out larger chunks from isis with turkish asistance

Thats not really a bad thing given the airpower arrayed against them , id say they should def mix it up more between geurilla and conventional
Given the patchwork of foriegn militas getting some fake ids and uniforms could reap wonders for the rebels

Id say the next regime axis big push will be hama, the turks moving leopard tanks and aa systems shows they are serious about taking al bab so thats out

 

[Rod1]

Those strongholds are in Idlib, not in eastern Aleppo.

Isnt Idlib 100% islamists by now?

 

[Rod1]

They still have large parts of the country and are carving out larger chunks from isis with turkish asistance

Thats not really a bad thing given the airpower arrayed against them , id say they should def mix it up more between geurilla and conventional
Given the patchwork of foriegn militas getting some fake ids and uniforms could reap wonders for the rebels

Id say the next regime axis big push will be hama, the turks moving leopard tanks and aa systems shows they are serious about taking al bab so thats out

Turkish rebels are not going to fight Assad, they are only there to stop the Kurds.

 

[whougonnacall]

Fucking Christ. You clearly have absolutely no military experience.

Pilots are officers.

And just to reiterate the point, Turkey purged 350 pilots from their Air Force this year. Then when you factor in all the support crew (maintenance, loaders, avionics techs, etc) who were also purged, and you are left with an Air Force that is extremely limited in its capabilities. Which is why they're literally begging for some of the people they fired to come back:

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-de...ce-seeks-to-lure-back-seasoned-pilots-2016-11

The Turkish Air Force was never all that good to begin with; now they're operating at a capability on par with Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, after those geniuses in Tehran decided to execute anybody in the Iranian military who knew what the fuck they were doing.

Note: even in it's severely diminished capacity, the TAF would merc the SyAF but to ask them to establish air superiority over the SyAF, take out Syrian air defences, and provide effective CAS is not feasible. Then when you factor in the presence of RuAF, it becomes impossible. Only the USAF can accomplish that.

Dunno where you are getting the 350 number from but yeah they have been hit hard with the counter coup shit
Still doesnt affect the fact that only russia could stop them and they are not keen to confront each other esp with turkey on the cusp of signing imp economic deals with russia and china
And walking from the wests grasp into putins

 

[whougonnacall]

Isnt Idlib 100% islamists by now?

Nope theres been 3 fsa factions merged into one to be 3rd largest bloc there last few months

 

[Lonesome Crow]

Dunno where you are getting the 350 number from but yeah they have been hit hard with the counter coup shit

It's in the article I linked.

 

[whougonnacall]

Turkish rebels are not going to fight Assad, they are only there to stop the Kurds.

Arent they ? they will fight isis and kurds for now but they were all anti assad forces once
Some Being whupped by nursra has probably taught them patience and the value of taking one enemy at a time

 

[RockstarChris]

build a wall around the middle east and call it thunderdome.

 

[whougonnacall]

It's in the article I linked.

Ok cheers
Yeah prpb hurt them but they are flying bombing missions in syria as we speak

 

[godking]

If you honestly believe that iv a bridge in london to sell you

The rebels either hold Allepo or they are done as a threat tot Assad.

 

[Rod1]

Arent they ? they will fight isis and kurds for now but they were all anti assad forces once
Some Being whupped by nursra has probably taught them patience and the value of taking one enemy at a time

As long as Russia and Turkey are friends they wont fight each other.

 

[Lonesome Crow]

Ok cheers
Yeah prpb hurt them but they are flying bombing missions in syria as we speak

So are the Israelis.

 

[Zankou]

The rebels either hold Allepo or they are done as a threat tot Assad.

Depends what you mean by threat. Sunni militant jihad isn't going away anytime soon. You'll probably continue to see periodic suicide bombings and such, but in terms of large-scale troop movements, true, if Aleppo falls, the cause is pretty much over. The unresolved questions remain how the north will solidify and who takes over Jihadistan in the east.

 

[godking]

Depends what you mean by threat. Sunni militant jihad isn't going away anytime soon. You'll probably continue to see periodic suicide bombings and such, but in terms of large-scale troop movements, true, if Aleppo falls, the cause is pretty much over. The unresolved questions remain how the north will solidify and who takes over Jihadistan in the east.

By threat i mean capabele of challenging the Syrian government directly. After Allepo falls in Assad,s hands completly the rebels will be reduced tot bandits who may hurt the government from time tot time but will not be able tot win battles anymore.

 

[Sauron]

whougonnacall clearly doesn't understand what endgame means. He confuses his hopes of upending Assad with the cold hard reality of what's actually happening. First it was Clinton is going to establish a no-fly zone. Then it was Turkey. Next it's 100+ MP's vote to air drop aid to Aleppo. It's one desperate plea after another with him.

The rebels are done as a force once Aleppo falls. The amount of SAA troops that will be freed up will just be a huge force multiplier for wherever they are redeployed. Let's not forget that this progress is being made all around. The pockets south of Damascus are being whittled down as well. Then there's Mosul falling as well. The PMU will go to Deir Ezzor next, and ISIS is done as a relevant force in this conflict.

What's left is Idlib. The SCW could go from a hot conflict to a cold conflict in 12 months.

 

[Lonesome Crow]

Another update from the shit-talkers extraordinaire: